Test a belief in fifteen seconds.
Four things traders say, each one checked against every minute we have recorded. Nothing here is simulated and nothing is cherry picked: the exact definition, the count, and the same measurement run over the market with no condition at all.
368 crypto perpetuals with complete coverage, 15 Jul 2025 to 1 Sep 2026. TradFi-referencing contracts excluded.
A liquidation cascade marks the low
The oldest reflex in a leveraged market: the flush is the bottom, so buy it.
- Liquidations running at 8x the symbol's own baseline or more
- Those liquidations clustered into one cascade, not scattered
- Price already down 3% or more over the trailing hour
What this cannot seeBinance publishes forced liquidations at one print per symbol per second, the largest that second, so this definition sees a floor of every cascade rather than the whole of it. We are building an estimator that models the full cascade from the tape itself, expected late October 2026, and it will feed this page and the research surface alike.
| What happened | This setup | Baseline | setup baseline | Lift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1hup 2% or more | 49.5% | 3.4% | 14.56x | |
| 1hdown 2% or more | 14.0% | 3.2% | 4.37x | |
| 4hup 2% or more | 63.6% | 11.2% | 5.70x | |
| 4hdown 2% or more | 15.9% | 12.0% | 1.33x | |
| 24hup 2% or more | 62.6% | 26.2% | 2.39x | |
| 24hdown 2% or more | 23.4% | 32.3% | 0.72x |
Baseline is the same measurement over the same instruments and the same window with no condition applied. It is the only comparison that means anything.
47 of the 107 occurrences are a single day: 10 October 2025.
Half right, for about an hour.
A cascade is a volatility event before it is a direction. Within the hour 55.6% touch +2% and 40.0% touch -2%, seven and five times their baselines. There is an upward tilt at one hour, it halves by four hours, and by a day it is gone. At 45 occurrences the direction is suggestive, not established. The size of the move is not close to noise.
This is a size question. The record says a cascade is followed by a bigger move than usual in both directions, and it says so far outside noise.
It is not an entry. The upward tilt is suggestive rather than established, it halves by four hours, and by a day it is gone.
And it is rare. That is 107 times, across 368 markets, over the whole record. You are not going to catch the next one by watching a chart.
A free account arms the alert and plays the tape. Nothing runs until you confirm it.
Receipt
- query_hash
f4f4d269390ee60a- dataset_revision
bf9ef93f45c5cc734b369f4ee829b68f0742f937e7d09e53080b469a687ee5ee- schema_version
research_query.v2- normalization_version
archive_normalization.v1- feature_version
feature_defs.v1- result_encoding
record_result.v6- captured_at
2026-09-02
TradFi-referencing contracts, USDC pairs and dated contracts excluded. 181 of the 848 recorded instruments reference a TradFi asset with session hours; pooling them into a 24-hour statistic is invalid.