Crowd long, leaders not on ARBUSDT

Global accounts sit at least 65% long while top traders run at least 10 points less long than the crowd.

What has happened on ARBUSDT when it held

Historically, when Crowd long, leaders not on ARBUSDT held (25 occurrences in the scanned window, 25 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 4 of 25 (16.0) and drew down 10%+ in 0 of 25 (0.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

Versus baseline

Historically, when any eligible ARBUSDT minute in the window (baseline) held (38,691 occurrences in the scanned window, 37,191 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 5,380 of 37,191 (14.5) and drew down 10%+ in 48 of 37,191 (0.1). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

The full record

The same setup counted over every recorded day on ARBUSDT (2026-05-15 to 2026-07-31), growing daily.

Historically, when Crowd long, leaders not on ARBUSDT over the full record held (25 occurrences in the scanned window, 25 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 4 of 25 (16.0) and drew down 10%+ in 0 of 25 (0.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.top_global_long_skew",
        "lte",
        -0.1
      ],
      [
        "feature.global_long_ratio",
        "gte",
        0.65
      ],
      [
        "identity.symbol",
        "eq",
        "arbusdt"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.top_global_long_skew","lte",-0.1],["feature.global_long_ratio","gte",0.65],["identity.symbol","eq","arbusdt"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

How to read this

• Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
• Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
• This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.

Everything measured on ARBUSDT right now: the ARBUSDT research page