Published research
Saved studies of recorded markets, each with its exact definition and counts.
When a bullish engulfing candle is followed by a 5% jump within the hour, what happens next?
Bigger moves both ways, more often down. Fell 2% or more after 30 minutes: 18x the rate for any minute.
Before and since publication
Not counted, no complete window: 7 original.
9,092 occurrences2025-07-15 to 2026-09-04Published 2026-09-05
Open report →Same search, 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-26: 1,285 occurrences, no reference rate →
After $5M of liquidations in an hour, does the move keep going?
An up lean. Rose 2% or more after 30 minutes: 2.0x the rate for any minute.
Before and since publication
700 occurrences2025-07-15 to 2026-09-04Published 2026-09-05
Open report →Same search, 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-26: 282 occurrences, no reference rate →
When shorts are paying heavy funding just before settlement, does price fall?
Bigger moves both ways, more often down. Fell 2% or more after 30 minutes: 10x the rate for any minute.
Before and since publication
Not counted, no complete window: 4 original.
612 occurrences2025-07-15 to 2026-09-04Published 2026-09-05
Open report →Same search, 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-26: 105 occurrences, no reference rate →
When most of the crowd is long, what happens next?
A down lean. Fell 2% or more after 30 minutes: 1.6x the rate for any minute.
Before and since publication
Not counted, no complete window: 2,535 original, 71 later.
61,640 occurrences2025-07-15 to 2026-09-04Published 2026-09-05
Open report →Same search, 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-26: 8,637 occurrences, no reference rate →
Since publication: the same search on later data, to the 2026-10-01 snapshot. Not a held-out test.
"Any minute" means every eligible minute in the same markets and dates, with no setup filter.
No reference rate: no lift is claimed and nothing is compared since publication.
Published results never change. Counts are matches within the stated record, not a historical frequency or trading advice. Run your own definition →