Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.

When shorts are paying heavy funding just before settlement, does price fall?

612 historical matches·844 markets scanned·2025-07-15 to 2026-09-04

At a glance

Bigger moves both ways, more often down.

Price change 30 minutes after the setup completed.

Fell 2% or more19%118 of 608 matches1.9% of reference minutes · 10x as often5,826,103 of 309,306,062 minutes

Rose 2% or more15%90 of 608 matches2.1% of reference minutes · 7.0x as often6,523,279 of 309,306,062 minutes

Reference: every eligible minute in the same markets and dates, with no setup filter. 4 matches without a complete outcome are left out.

Data limitation: Last match 2026-08-19; 15 days before the scanned window ends. Some low-point readings contain missing-price defects. See data quality details ↓

▸ Replay one Edit this question →Check newer evidence ↓

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When shorts are paying heavy funding just before settlement, does price fall?

612 matches · 844 markets · 2025-07-15 to 2026-09-04 UTC

Bigger moves both ways, more often down.

Price at 30 minutes after the completed setup. 4 incomplete outcomes excluded.

Closed 2% or more lower: 19.4% (118 of 608). Reference: 1.9% (5,826,103 of 309,306,062).

Closed 2% or more higher: 14.8% (90 of 608). Reference: 2.1% (6,523,279 of 309,306,062).

Reference: all eligible minutes in the same markets and dates, without a setup filter; not a matched control.

Last match 2026-08-19; 15 days before the window ends.

Some low-point readings have missing-price defects.

Historical evidence, not a trading return or prediction.

Read the evidence and edit the question: https://edgedepth.com/research/reports/featurefundingrate-001-featureminstofunding-30-487adb21?utm_source=report-share&utm_medium=peer-share

Scope: all scanned markets combined, no market or sector filter. Not a result for any one market, sector or asset class. Matches by market ↓ · Research coverage →

Results by time periodCompare 30 minutes, 1 hour and longer periods, including larger moves

Choose a time period. “Closed” measures the price at its end; high and low points measure prices reached along the way. Reference rates use all eligible minutes in the same markets and date range.

30 minutes4 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	14.8%90 of 608	2.1%6,523,279 of 309,306,062	7.0x
Closed 2% or more lower	19.4%118 of 608	1.9%5,826,103 of 309,306,062	10x
Closed 5% or more higher	4.9%30 of 608	0.3%893,008 of 309,306,062	17x
Closed 5% or more lower	6.3%38 of 608	0.2%717,031 of 309,306,062	27x
High point 5% or more above	11.8%72 of 608	0.7%2,144,607 of 314,124,431	17x
Low point 5% or more below	12.5%76 of 608	0.6%1,992,016 of 314,124,431	20x

1 hour5 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	14.2%86 of 607	4.1%12,625,601 of 309,270,041	3.5x
Closed 2% or more lower	36.6%222 of 607	3.9%12,006,140 of 309,270,041	9.4x
Closed 5% or more higher	6.1%37 of 607	0.6%1,962,537 of 309,270,041	9.6x
Closed 5% or more lower	15.2%92 of 607	0.5%1,554,800 of 309,270,041	30x
High point 5% or more above	17.8%108 of 608	1.5%4,728,628 of 314,109,985	12x
Low point 5% or more below	28.6%174 of 608	1.3%4,078,811 of 314,109,985	22x

4 hours7 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	20.8%126 of 605	12.1%37,217,067 of 308,817,300	1.7x
Closed 2% or more lower	46.0%278 of 605	13.0%40,042,741 of 308,817,300	3.5x
Closed 5% or more higher	10.9%66 of 605	2.7%8,215,424 of 308,817,300	4.1x
Closed 5% or more lower	28.1%170 of 605	2.5%7,606,298 of 308,817,300	11x
High point 5% or more above	33.2%202 of 608	6.4%20,179,064 of 313,989,332	5.2x
Low point 5% or more below	52.1%317 of 608	5.7%17,974,657 of 313,989,332	9.1x

24 hours11 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	23.1%139 of 601	27.0%83,027,835 of 307,038,713	0.9x
Closed 2% or more lower	67.4%405 of 601	32.6%100,217,389 of 307,038,713	2.1x
Closed 5% or more higher	17.3%104 of 601	11.7%36,049,343 of 307,038,713	1.5x
Closed 5% or more lower	56.6%340 of 601	13.7%42,173,897 of 307,038,713	4.1x
High point 5% or more above	53.9%328 of 608	28.3%88,759,065 of 313,152,058	1.9x
Low point 5% or more below	79.3%482 of 608	29.3%91,675,224 of 313,152,058	2.7x

72 hours: Not included in this saved report.

7 days: Not included in this saved report.

Average and median returns are not available in this report. These frequencies alone do not establish profitability.

When did it happen, and how spread out were returns?Frequency over time and the distribution of 30-minute returns

Occurrences per day · UTC · sum 612

Each bar counts matching setups on one UTC day. Look for clusters: many examples from a short period may reflect the same market episode.

Where price ended after 30 minutes

These three groups cover every complete outcome, including the moves smaller than 2%. Bar length shows the share of matches, not the size of the price move.

Fell 2% or more19.4%

118 of 608 matches

Between −2% and +2%65.8%

400 of 608 matches

Rose 2% or more14.8%

90 of 608 matches

4 incomplete outcomes excluded. This measures the price at 30 minutes, not the highest or lowest price reached on the way.

Detailed distribution: 28 return ranges

30-minute return distribution · 608 present · 4 absent. Each column counts outcomes in the labelled return range. The ranges have different widths; compare counts, not the shape as a probability density.

Author's noteOpinion, not machine output

"Full-record refresh of q#945e12a2, which scanned 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-26. That pinned report is unchanged."

Results since publicationHave new matches appeared, and what happened after them?

Outcome	Original study, 2025-07-15 to 2026-09-04	Since publication, from 2026-09-05
Traded 5% or more above the match within 1h	108 of 608 (17.8%) · 4 absent, not counted	loading
Closed 2% or more higher at 24h	139 of 601 (23.1%) · 11 absent, not counted	loading
Closed 2% or more lower at 24h	405 of 601 (67.4%) · 11 absent, not counted	loading

Both periods are counted the same way. The later period is the same search on data recorded after publication, not a preregistered test. A missing outcome is never counted as zero.

Matches by marketMost matches: ENSOUSDT 13 · RIVERUSDT 13 · DASHUSDT 11844 markets itemized

Find where this setup appeared. These are occurrence counts, not performance rankings. Outcomes for individual markets are not included in this saved report.

Find a marketShowing 25 of 844 itemized markets

ENSOUSDT13417,1210.3
RIVERUSDT13412,3200.3
DASHUSDT11548,6400.2
KITEUSDT11395,2800.3
LAUSDT11548,6400.2
MYXUSDT11548,6400.2
SKLUSDT11548,6400.2
COAIUSDT8444,4800.2
KAITOUSDT8548,6400.1
TRADOORUSDT8452,8810.2
AWEUSDT7548,6400.1
DUSKUSDT7548,6400.1
HUSDT7548,6400.1
KNCUSDT7548,6400.1
ONGUSDT7548,6400.1
SPELLUSDT7548,6400.1
ACEUSDT6548,6400.1
BARDUSDT6454,5600.1
BULLAUSDT6548,6400.1
ESPORTSUSDT6527,7600.1
HOMEUSDT6548,6400.1
LABUSDT6442,5600.1
MSTRUSDT6246,7210.2
ORDERUSDT6442,8010.1
POLYXUSDT6548,6400.1

Examples and replaysFirst 50 of 612 matches

Examples, never the denominator; the counts above cover every match. Replay opens 30 minutes before the moment and depends on coverage and access.

Sort the 50 examples shown here. This does not sort all study matches.

Replay