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Pricing

When shorts are paying heavy funding just before settlement, does price fall?

612 matches·all scanned symbols·2025-07-15 to 2026-09-04

Close to a coin flip: 276 rose and 332 fell over the next 30 minutes (608 completed).

612
matches
844
markets
319,973,223
eligible market-minutes scanned
4
without a 30m outcome

Of all eligible minutes across the same 844 markets: 156,898,765 of 309,306,062 rose (50.7%) and 152,407,297 fell (49.3%) over the same 30 minutes.

▸ Replay an occurrenceRun this study →Has it held up since publication? ↓
OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 612
905MATCHES PER UTC DAY · MAX 9 ON 2026-04-08JUL 15AUG 01SEP 01OCT 01NOV 01DEC 01JAN 01FEB 01MAR 01APR 01MAY 01JUN 01JUL 01AUG 01SEP 012025-07-15 TO 2026-09-04 · 417 UTC DAYS · ZERO DAYS KEEP THEIR SLOT
FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 608 PRESENT · 4 ABSENT10 FIXED BUCKETS
≥ +5: 30 OF 6085330808065411612172033566060206211≤−100−15−10−5−2−1−0.5−0.2−0.1<00++0.1+0.2+0.5+1+2+5+10+15+20+30≥+400
AUTHOR'S NOTE - OPINION, NOT MACHINE OUTPUT

"Full-record refresh of q#945e12a2, which scanned 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-26. That pinned report is unchanged."

Results since publicationThe same search on data recorded after publication, side by side
OutcomeOriginal window, 2025-07-15 to 2026-09-04Since publication, from 2026-09-05
Traded 5% or more above the match within 1h108 of 608 (17.8%) · 4 absent, not countedloading
Closed 2% or more higher at 24h139 of 601 (23.1%) · 11 absent, not countedloading
Closed 2% or more lower at 24h405 of 601 (67.4%) · 11 absent, not countedloading

Both periods are counted the same way. The later period is the same search on data recorded after publication, not a preregistered test. A missing outcome is never counted as zero.

Matches by marketMost matches: ENSOUSDT 13 · RIVERUSDT 13 · DASHUSDT 11844 markets itemized

How many matches each market contributed, over the minutes actually scanned there. The rate is matches per 10,000 scanned minutes, a frequency of the setup and not a result. What followed is summarized above over all matches together; the pinned result carries no per-market outcome summary, so none is claimed here.

Showing 25 of 844 itemized markets
  • ENSENSOUSDT13417,1210.3
  • RIVRIVERUSDT13412,3200.3
  • DASDASHUSDT11548,6400.2
  • KITKITEUSDT11395,2800.3
  • LALAUSDT11548,6400.2
  • MYXMYXUSDT11548,6400.2
  • SKLSKLUSDT11548,6400.2
  • COACOAIUSDT8444,4800.2
  • KAIKAITOUSDT8548,6400.1
  • TRATRADOORUSDT8452,8810.2
  • AWEAWEUSDT7548,6400.1
  • DUSDUSKUSDT7548,6400.1
  • HHUSDT7548,6400.1
  • KNCKNCUSDT7548,6400.1
  • ONGONGUSDT7548,6400.1
  • SPESPELLUSDT7548,6400.1
  • ACEACEUSDT6548,6400.1
  • BARBARDUSDT6454,5600.1
  • BULBULLAUSDT6548,6400.1
  • ESPESPORTSUSDT6527,7600.1
  • HOMHOMEUSDT6548,6400.1
  • LABLABUSDT6442,5600.1
  • MSTMSTRUSDT6246,7210.2
  • ORDORDERUSDT6442,8010.1
  • POLPOLYXUSDT6548,6400.1
Examples and replaysFirst 50 of 612 matches

Examples, never the denominator; the counts above cover every match. Replay opens 30 minutes before the moment.

MarketWhen (UTC)30m returnHigh-water 1hLow-water 1hReplay
UNIUNITREEUSDT2026-08-19 15:30−0.27%+0.09%−2.25%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.02setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
UNIUNITREEUSDT2026-08-19 08:00−3.80%+0.11%−5.15%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.02setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
BICBICOUSDT2026-08-16 23:30−3.08%+0.51%−4.96%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01102043setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
BICBICOUSDT2026-08-16 16:00−6.79%+0.87%−7.54%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01102043setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
ACEACEUSDT2026-08-16 08:00+2.75%+3.44%−1.93%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01184977setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
COWCOWUSDT2026-08-16 08:00−1.65%+2.91%−5.90%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01244722setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
WALWALUSDT2026-08-16 08:00−1.20%+0.40%−2.18%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01073277setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
ACEACEUSDT2026-08-15 23:30−0.86%+2.55%−4.95%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01024516setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
ACEACEUSDT2026-08-15 15:30+1.09%+1.78%−7.73%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01612282setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
COWCOWUSDT2026-08-15 15:30−0.07%+2.43%−7.77%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01909076setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
KAIKAITOUSDT2026-08-12 08:00−9.45%+0.05%−10.96%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01665664setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
KAIKAITOUSDT2026-08-11 15:30+1.53%+2.12%+0.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01015809setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
KAIKAITOUSDT2026-08-10 15:30+0.82%+1.63%−3.97%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01111559setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
KAIKAITOUSDT2026-08-09 23:30−0.15%+0.64%−0.91%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01327574setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
KAIKAITOUSDT2026-08-09 07:30+0.20%+0.98%−1.79%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01033021setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
KAIKAITOUSDT2026-08-08 23:30+1.31%+2.75%−0.85%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01382722setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
FWDFWDIUSDT2026-08-07 15:30+0.41%+0.99%−1.01%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01459073setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
ACEACEUSDT2026-08-07 08:00−2.03%+2.10%−9.55%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01972852setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
FWDFWDIUSDT2026-08-07 08:00−4.74%+0.74%−5.58%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01459073setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
HOMHOMEUSDT2026-08-05 07:30+3.28%+6.65%−1.11%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01194283setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
HOMHOMEUSDT2026-08-04 15:30−0.84%+2.92%−3.54%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01657111setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
HOMHOMEUSDT2026-08-04 08:00−6.46%+2.00%−9.89%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01338585setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
WAXWAXPUSDT2026-08-03 15:30−0.91%+0.50%−2.32%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01493025setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
HYPHYPERUSDT2026-08-02 08:00−1.55%+1.59%−2.89%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01017992setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
LALAUSDT2026-07-31 07:30−0.58%+0.37%−1.68%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.0152933setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
BANBANKUSDT2026-07-30 15:30−3.27%+4.49%−12.12%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.02setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
LALAUSDT2026-07-30 07:30−2.52%+0.70%−4.64%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01389521setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
LALAUSDT2026-07-29 15:30−0.58%+0.85%−3.45%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01277387setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
LALAUSDT2026-07-29 07:30−1.09%+0.65%−4.74%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01500355setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
LALAUSDT2026-07-28 16:00−0.60%+0.30%−1.73%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01019672setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
LALAUSDT2026-07-28 08:00+1.07%+3.65%−1.75%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01774585setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
VANVANRYUSDT2026-07-26 23:30−0.07%+0.75%−1.92%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01123596setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
EULEULUSDT2026-07-26 16:00−3.51%+0.28%−8.27%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01045359setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
EULEULUSDT2026-07-26 07:30+0.86%+9.61%−2.87%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01222776setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
GWEGWEIUSDT2026-07-25 08:00−1.08%+6.47%−2.64%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01079454setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
AKEAKEUSDT2026-07-24 23:30−1.56%+2.22%−3.22%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01159231setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
AKEAKEUSDT2026-07-24 16:00+8.88%+14.84%−2.45%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01038941setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
BARBARDUSDT2026-07-23 15:30−0.47%+0.31%−1.18%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01264198setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
OOUSDT2026-07-23 08:00+1.94%+3.79%−1.99%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.0127403setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
DEXDEXEUSDT2026-07-23 07:30−2.42%+1.03%−4.12%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01255142setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
ONEONEUSDT2026-07-22 23:30+1.23%+1.93%−0.23%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01054059setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
MIRMIRAUSDT2026-07-22 16:00−1.88%+3.32%−4.17%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01318797setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
ONEONEUSDT2026-07-22 16:00+0.00%+1.38%−1.76%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01054059setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
DEXDEXEUSDT2026-07-22 15:30−3.15%+3.08%−6.54%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01254096setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
RIFRIFUSDT2026-07-22 15:30−2.19%+7.82%−4.11%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01137721setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
DODDODOXUSDT2026-07-22 07:30−2.36%+1.52%−11.63%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01002686setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
MIRMIRAUSDT2026-07-22 07:30−1.91%+0.89%−2.68%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01474476setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
DODDODOXUSDT2026-07-21 23:30+0.29%+1.40%−2.46%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01416999setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
DODDODOXUSDT2026-07-21 16:00−1.64%+0.42%−2.54%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01125883setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}0setup_point_in_time
ERAERAUSDT2026-07-21 15:30−0.45%+1.71%−5.63%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.funding_ratebetween{"lte":-0.01}-0.01376122setup_point_in_time
feature.mins_to_fundingbetween{"lte":30}30setup_point_in_time
Evidence and methodologyThe exact search, the pin, missing data and versions

Published 2026-09-05 by @admin · q#487adb21

Exact search

Every time funding is expensive for shorts and funding settlement is close

SCOPEtimes.anchor_time between 2025-07-15T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z
WHEREfeature.funding_rate ≤ -0.01feature.mins_to_funding ≤ 30

These values are what ran, confirmed by the author before the run. Prose on this page is commentary.

Pinned result

v2 · nrm.v1 · ft.v1 · rev 6e2bee53…a3be76fb · q#487adb21

This ID reruns to the same answer on any day and any account. It never changes; the record grows nightly and a rerun publishes as a new labeled result.

Outcome diagnostics

Headline split (mfe_1h)
108 of 608 (17.8%) traded 5% or more above the match at some point within 1h (mfe_1h, a high-water mark and not a close). 500 of 608 did not. Measured forward from each match. 4 absent, excluded from the denominator.
Peak day and span
Busiest day 2026-04-08: 9 of 612 matches (1.5%). 417 UTC days scanned: 267 with matches, 150 with none.
Present and absent by metric
fwd_ret_30m: present 608 · absent 4
mfe_1h: present 608 · absent 4
mae_1h: present 608 · absent 4
Absent: no completed outcome (record edge or missing minutes), excluded from every rate.
Threshold counts (fwd_ret_30m), both signs
≥ +0259 OF 608
≥ +0239 OF 608
≥ +1206 OF 608
≥ +1150 OF 608
≥ +290 OF 608
≥ +530 OF 608
≥ +1010 OF 608
≥ +154 OF 608
≥ +202 OF 608
≥ +301 OF 608
≥ +500 OF 608
≥ +1000 OF 608
≥ +2000 OF 608
≥ +4000 OF 608
≤ -0320 OF 608
≤ -0304 OF 608
≤ -1263 OF 608
≤ -1198 OF 608
≤ -2118 OF 608
≤ -538 OF 608
≤ -108 OF 608
≤ -155 OF 608
≤ -200 OF 608
≤ -300 OF 608
≤ -500 OF 608
≤ -1000 OF 608
Every row is an exact partial sum of the distribution buckets in the chart, so the table and the chart cannot disagree.

Methodology and versions

DEFINITION
2 clauses · 1 scope
How this is counted
feature.funding_rate ≤ -0.01 · feature.mins_to_funding ≤ 30. the chips at the top of the page are this definition, verbatim.
EXECUTION
edge-triggered · 1m UTC grid
How this is counted
the predicate becomes true having been false; sequences chain greedy-earliest and anchor at completion; episode dedupe PT1H. deterministic at every worker count.
DENOMINATORS
319,973,223 of 505,590,604
How this is counted
eligible market-minutes scanned (one market for one minute) across 844 markets; 185,617,381 excluded where a measurement was not yet available - missing data shrinks the denominator, it never counts as zero; 53197 market-days excluded by the source ledger. counts are matches within the scanned window, never a base rate.
OUTCOMES
forward from anchor · in-scan
How this is counted
closed threshold list ±0/0/1/1/2/5/10/15/20/30/50/100/200/400 pct, 28 fixed buckets across 12 forward metrics, computed over all occurrences pre-paging. an outcome absent at the record edge (horizon incomplete) is counted, never truncated or implied zero. nothing on this page is filterable by outcome. nothing here is a guarantee or trading advice.
OBSERVATION SCOPE
setup as-of anchor
How this is counted
setup values are as-of the anchor bucket close (point-in-time freeze); window aggregates cover their stated pre-anchor duration; every value the predicate consulted is at or before the anchor.
PIN
pinned 2026-09-05 · 612
How this is counted
the pinned result (counts, page-1 rows, outcomes, outcomes summary) never mutates. later dataset revisions are new runs, never merged.
SORT
times.anchor_time asc
How this is counted
the only record sort in v2.0; page limit 50. the pinned rows are page 1 of 612 - charts and rates derive from the summary over all occurrences, never from the page.
VERSIONS
q#487adb21 · rev 6e2bee531043
How this is counted
schema research_query.v2 · normalization archive_normalization.v1 · features feature_defs.v1 · encoding record_result.v6. same key implies a byte-identical rerun.
DATASET REV · FULL
6e2bee531043791f0990ab61c8c7c22d18aaea20c1543c1798cd9019a3be76fb

These are counts of what happened in the scanned window, not a promise it happens again. Nothing here is trading advice.