THE BLOG

Folklore, counted

Every post here tests a claim traders argue about against the recorded market. The post is the argument; the pinned report it links is the receipt. If a number cannot be re-run, we do not publish it.

2026-07-31 A crowded long is supposed to get flushed. We counted. Retail 70%+ long is folklore for an incoming flush. Across 8,637 crowded-long episodes the next day read almost exactly like any other day, with one exception: 5%+ flushes came about a fifth more often, and the very deepest dumps came less often, not more.
2026-07-30 Negative funding is supposed to mark the bottom. We counted. Extreme negative funding minutes before settlement is folklore for a reversal. Across 47 million recorded market-minutes it read as continuation: 79.6% fell another 2% within a day.

Test your own claim.

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