Market conditions with historical base rates
26 named conditions. Open one to see how often it held and what followed, market by market.
Microstructure
- VPIN in the critical regimeNo pages yet
One-sided flow at its highest band.
- VPIN above 0.85No pages yet
One-sided flow above 0.85 on its 0 to 1 scale.
- Order book heavily bid-sided130 market pages
Bid holds 75%+ of quoted quantity.
- Order book heavily ask-sided130 market pages
Ask holds 75%+ of quoted quantity.
- Book imbalance above its 95th percentile109 market pages
Book tilt in the top 5% of its own history.
- Spread blown out toward its capNo pages yet
The gap between best bid and ask has blown out.
- Two-thirds of the tape on one side127 market pages
At least 66% of recent taker volume is buying.
- Whale prints carrying a third of volume38 market pages
Large trades carry a third of recent volume.
- One-sided tape: buyers130 market pages
At least 62% of 15-minute taker volume is buying.
- One-sided tape: sellers130 market pages
At least 62% of 15-minute taker volume is selling.
Liquidations
- Liquidation intensity elevated26 market pages
Forced exits arriving well above this market's usual pace.
- Liquidations arriving in cascades5 market pages
Liquidations arriving in bursts rather than one by one.
- At least $5M liquidated in one hour2 market pages
At least $5 million of positions force-closed inside an hour.
- Large USD OI change with liquidationscombination5 market pages
Large USD open-interest change in either direction alongside at least $1 million of reported liquidations in an hour.
Funding + open interest
- Funding pinned at the extreme of its rangeNo pages yet
The fee between longs and shorts is pinned near its extreme.
- Funding deeply negative into settlementcombinationNo pages yet
Shorts paying longs heavily with settlement under 30 minutes away.
- Unusually large USD open-interest change130 market pages
USD open interest changing unusually fast in either direction; price affects its dollar value.
- Crowd long, leaders notcombination8 market pages
Most accounts sit long while top traders lean well away from the crowd.
Volatility + price
- Realized volatility above its 90th percentile130 market pages
Price swinging harder than in 90% of this market's own history.
- Stretched 2% above the day VWAP126 market pages
Price at least 2% above the day's volume-weighted average.
Candle formations
- Range compression on the 15-minute candle130 market pages
The last 15-minute candle's range is unusually tight.
- Swept lows and closed back above (15m)130 market pages
A 15-minute candle dipped under prior lows, then closed back above them.
- Hourly engulfing candle129 market pages
The last hourly candle fully covered the one before it.
- Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h)130 market pages
An hourly candle dipped under prior lows, then closed back above them.
Ordered sequences
- Spread blowout, then a liquidation burstcombinationNo pages yet
A spread blowout followed by forced exits within 30 minutes.
- Liquidation cascade, then a reclaimcombinationNo pages yet
Forced exits, then a 15-minute candle that swept the lows and closed back above.