Live conditions · deterministic

What is firing now, and how often it has happened

Conditions the record is watched for. Each one links to what usually followed, market by market, with the counts beside every rate.

Firing now (provisional)

The live firing read is not yet connected here. Every condition below links to its market pages and their pinned counts.

Microstructure
One-sided, informed-looking flow at its highest band. Watched because heavy one-sided flow often precedes sharp moves.
No market pages yet for this one. They are rebuilt nightly.
One-sided, informed-looking flow above 0.85 on its 0 to 1 scale. Watched because it often precedes sharp moves.
No market pages yet for this one. They are rebuilt nightly.
Resting orders lean heavily toward buyers. Watched because a tilted book shows where passive money is waiting.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 0% of 626 cases on PAXGUSDT and 89% of 619 cases on BTWUSDT.

Resting orders lean heavily toward sellers. Watched because a tilted book shows where passive money is waiting.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 0% of 621 cases on PAXGUSDT and 88% of 620 cases on BTWUSDT.

Book tilt in the top 5% of its own history. Watched because rare readings stand out from normal churn.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 0% of 148 cases on PAXGUSDT and 95% of 84 cases on CAPUSDT.

The gap between best bid and ask has blown out. Watched because wide spreads mean stressed, thin trading.
No market pages yet for this one. They are rebuilt nightly.
Two-thirds of recent trades hit the buy side. Watched because a persistent one-way tape shows real pressure.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 0% of 370 cases on PAXGUSDT and 89% of 121 cases on CAPUSDT.

Large trades carry a third of recent volume. Watched because concentrated size suggests big players are active.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 0% of 77 cases on PAXGUSDT and 74% of 19 cases on ZECUSDT.

At least 62% of recent trades hit the buy side. Watched because a buyer-heavy tape shows real pressure.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 0% of 434 cases on PAXGUSDT and 87% of 227 cases on CAPUSDT.

At least 62% of recent trades hit the sell side. Watched because a seller-heavy tape shows real pressure.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 0% of 446 cases on PAXGUSDT and 95% of 65 cases on BTWUSDT.

Liquidations
Forced exits arriving well above this market's usual pace. Watched because liquidations add fuel to moves already underway.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 17% of 52 cases on BTCUSDT and 96% of 24 cases on LSKUSDT.

Liquidations arriving in bursts rather than one by one. Watched because chains of forced exits can feed themselves.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 6% of 32 cases on BTCUSDT and 86% of 21 cases on CYSUSDT.

At least $5 million of positions force-closed inside an hour. Watched as a plain measure of market stress.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 13% of 52 cases on BTCUSDT and 29% of 58 cases on ETHUSDT.

Positions building fast while at least $1 million was force-closed in an hour. Watched because both together mark stress.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 15% of 198 cases on BTCUSDT and 72% of 53 cases on ZECUSDT.

Funding + open interest
The fee between longs and shorts is pinned near its extreme. Watched because stretched funding shows a crowded side.
No market pages yet for this one. They are rebuilt nightly.
Shorts paying longs heavily with settlement under 30 minutes away. Watched because the payment deadline can force repositioning.
No market pages yet for this one. They are rebuilt nightly.
Open positions growing unusually fast for this market. Watched because rapid position building often accompanies decisive moves.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 0% of 409 cases on PAXGUSDT and 87% of 446 cases on BTWUSDT.

Most accounts sit long while top traders lean well away from the crowd. Watched because crowded sides get flushed.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 0% of 27 cases on COWUSDT and 75% of 20 cases on BTRUSDT.

Volatility + price
Price swinging harder than in 90% of this market's own history. Watched because volatility tends to cluster.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 0% of 79 cases on PAXGUSDT and 89% of 64 cases on BTWUSDT.

Price at least 2% above the day's volume-weighted average. Watched because it shows buyers dominated the session.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 18% of 44 cases on KAITOUSDT and 92% of 157 cases on CYSUSDT.

Candle formations
The last 15-minute candle's range is unusually tight. Watched because quiet stretches often end abruptly.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 0% of 162 cases on PAXGUSDT and 89% of 114 cases on BTWUSDT.

A 15-minute candle dipped under prior lows, then closed back above them. Watched as a classic failed breakdown.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 0% of 119 cases on PAXGUSDT and 87% of 92 cases on BTWUSDT.

The last hourly candle fully covered the one before it. Watched as a widely followed momentum formation.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 0% of 43 cases on PAXGUSDT and 93% of 56 cases on BTWUSDT.

An hourly candle dipped under prior lows, then closed back above them. Watched as a classic failed breakdown.
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Reached +5% within 24 hours in 0% of 41 cases on PAXGUSDT and 93% of 30 cases on CAPUSDT.

Ordered sequences
A spread blowout followed by forced exits within 30 minutes. Watched as one form of stress feeding another.
No market pages yet for this one. They are rebuilt nightly.
Forced exits, then a 15-minute candle that swept the lows and closed back above. Watched as a possible washout.
No market pages yet for this one. They are rebuilt nightly.
Where the totals went

Counted across all tracked markets together, the totals were dominated by whichever markets fire most. Use a single market's page for numbers you can act on.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.