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< All conditions
Condition · recorded history

Crowd long, leaders not

Global accounts sit at least 65% long while top traders run at least 10 points less long than the crowd.

What is a base rate?

Recorded window: 5 Sept 2026 to 4 Oct 2026 (UTC). Counted 5 Oct 2026 at 09:37 UTC.

What happened in the next 24 hours?

Reaching +5% was about as common as without it; falling to −10% was more common than without it.

Other minutes are the same markets and dates without this condition. Each percentage is the share of measured minutes that reached that move from the starting price.

Price touched +5% or higher

When this held
35.2% · 833 of 2,369 minutes
Other minutes
33.9% · 5,831,570 of 17,209,159 minutes

Price touched −10% or lower

When this held
10.7% · 254 of 2,369 minutes
Other minutes
6.3% · 1,088,657 of 17,209,159 minutes

Price can touch both levels within the same 24 hours.

Sample and counting

Rates use the 2,369 of 2,425 matches, pooled across 524 markets, with a full 24 hours after them. The 56 newer ones are left out, not counted as zero.

Edit this test in Workbench

By market

Most matches:TAKEUSDT4USDTCOWUSDTGWEIUSDTBNBUSDTZKCUSDT
All 8 markets
4USDTBNBUSDTBTRUSDTCOWUSDTGWEIUSDTTAKEUSDTXMRUSDTZKCUSDT
When it happened
Matches per UTC day, 2026-09-05 to 2026-10-05

About 78 a day, on 30 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Other windows and move sizes
Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move1 hour4 hours24 hours72 hours7 days
Measured2,4052,4052,3692,2011,925
Too recent202056224500
+0.1% or more2,151 (89.4%)2,275 (94.6%)2,318 (97.8%)2,183 (99.2%)1,916 (99.5%)
+0.2% or more1,942 (80.7%)2,165 (90.0%)2,286 (96.5%)2,167 (98.5%)1,904 (98.9%)
+0.5% or more1,404 (58.4%)1,861 (77.4%)2,188 (92.4%)2,122 (96.4%)1,880 (97.7%)
+1% or more806 (33.5%)1,405 (58.4%)2,012 (84.9%)2,022 (91.9%)1,823 (94.7%)
+2% or more333 (13.8%)821 (34.1%)1,667 (70.4%)1,864 (84.7%)1,756 (91.2%)
+5% or more72 (3.0%)252 (10.5%)833 (35.2%)1,325 (60.2%)1,484 (77.1%)
+10% or more25 (1.0%)94 (3.9%)360 (15.2%)763 (34.7%)1,093 (56.8%)
+15% or more11 (0.5%)48 (2.0%)201 (8.5%)445 (20.2%)748 (38.9%)
+20% or more8 (0.3%)26 (1.1%)124 (5.2%)299 (13.6%)539 (28.0%)
+30% or more2 (0.1%)12 (0.5%)51 (2.2%)168 (7.6%)318 (16.5%)
+50% or more0 (0.0%)5 (0.2%)23 (1.0%)66 (3.0%)113 (5.9%)
+100% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)3 (0.1%)14 (0.6%)33 (1.7%)
+200% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)1 (<0.1%)5 (0.2%)13 (0.7%)
+400% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)1 (<0.1%)1 (<0.1%)1 (0.1%)
−0.1% or lower2,153 (89.5%)2,279 (94.8%)2,324 (98.1%)2,179 (99.0%)1,911 (99.3%)
−0.2% or lower1,951 (81.1%)2,180 (90.6%)2,291 (96.7%)2,161 (98.2%)1,901 (98.8%)
−0.5% or lower1,413 (58.8%)1,884 (78.3%)2,166 (91.4%)2,097 (95.3%)1,869 (97.1%)
−1% or lower829 (34.5%)1,420 (59.0%)1,954 (82.5%)1,991 (90.5%)1,798 (93.4%)
−2% or lower357 (14.8%)830 (34.5%)1,536 (64.8%)1,755 (79.7%)1,652 (85.8%)
−5% or lower85 (3.5%)223 (9.3%)760 (32.1%)1,195 (54.3%)1,278 (66.4%)
−10% or lower19 (0.8%)50 (2.1%)254 (10.7%)540 (24.5%)734 (38.1%)
−15% or lower4 (0.2%)16 (0.7%)100 (4.2%)220 (10.0%)349 (18.1%)
−20% or lower2 (0.1%)5 (0.2%)45 (1.9%)99 (4.5%)169 (8.8%)
−30% or lower0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)5 (0.2%)24 (1.1%)46 (2.4%)
−50% or lower0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)1 (<0.1%)3 (0.2%)

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Distributions and daily counts
Upside reached · 24hUpside reached (MFE, 24h)The most price moved up within 24 hours of each match: a high-water mark, never a close. 2,369 with a complete 24 hours.
Drawdown · 24hDrawdown (MAE, 24h)The worst price moved against within 24 hours of each match: the deepest point, never the close. 2,369 with a complete 24 hours.
Price 30 minutes laterForward 30-minute returnForward 30-minute returns across 2,380 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like. 45 too recent.

How to read a distribution

Matches per UTC day

  • 5 Sep79 matches
  • 6 Sep57 matches
  • 7 Sep58 matches
  • 8 Sep75 matches
  • 9 Sep89 matches
  • 10 Sep99 matches
  • 11 Sep80 matches
  • 12 Sep81 matches
  • 13 Sep119 matches
  • 14 Sep85 matches
  • 15 Sep59 matches
  • 16 Sep88 matches
  • 17 Sep65 matches
  • 18 Sep80 matches
  • 19 Sep74 matches
  • 20 Sep110 matches
  • 21 Sep101 matches
  • 22 Sep97 matches
  • 23 Sep77 matches
  • 24 Sep85 matches
  • 25 Sep73 matches
  • 26 Sep77 matches
  • 27 Sep79 matches
  • 28 Sep105 matches
  • 29 Sep48 matches
  • 30 Sep58 matches
  • 1 Oct90 matches
  • 2 Oct87 matches
  • 3 Oct80 matches
  • 4 Oct70 matches
  • 5 Oct0 matches
How this is counted
  • Each rate counts only matches with the full window after them.
  • A minute where a reading was missing is left out and reported, not read as zero.
  • The condition picks the setup, never the outcome: a definition that filters on what followed is rejected (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE). Every match is measured, winners and losers alike.
  • "Other minutes" is every other eligible minute in the same markets and window. It is a reference, not a control group.
  • "Reached +5%" uses the highest price inside the window (maximum favourable excursion, MFE); "fell to −10%" uses the lowest (maximum adverse excursion, MAE). Neither is the close.
  • Checked 22,581,257 eligible market-minutes (eligible_symbol_buckets) on 524 markets, 2026-09-05 00:00 to 2026-10-05 00:00 UTC.
  • These counts pool every market, so markets that match often weigh more. Each market page compares that market with its own reference.
  • Live status is not connected yet, so this page is recorded history only.

What are MFE and MAE?

Reproducibility key (q#b51280e6)

The key that re-runs this exact count. Same key, same bytes; when the record grows, the dataset revision changes.

grammar
research_query.v2
normalization
archive_normalization.v1
feature library
feature_defs.v1
dataset revision
3ddc87accdf75caf095222af0fb00cbead187f2ad3bea174413f907846d6f346
query hash
b51280e66ef9fd04acb87cdd60977ec5c80c2d2e9f884698e893876d366b3b91
scanned window
2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Re-run over the API

The exact search definition behind this count. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes; a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.top_global_long_skew",
        "lte",
        -0.1
      ],
      [
        "feature.global_long_ratio",
        "gte",
        0.65
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}
curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.top_global_long_skew","lte",-0.1],["feature.global_long_ratio","gte",0.65],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z","2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

Past examples from the record, not a guarantee or a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.

Crowd long, leaders not: historical base rates | EdgeDepth