BTRUSDT · historical base rate

Crowd long, leaders not on BTRUSDT

Global accounts sit at least 65% long while top traders run at least 10 points less long than the crowd.

What has happened on BTRUSDT when it held

Historically, when Crowd long, leaders not on BTRUSDT held (20 occurrences in the scanned window, 20 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 15 of 20 (75.0) and drew down 10%+ in 1 of 20 (5.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED · ALL 20 MATCHES

20 of 20 (100.0%) reached +0% or more within 1 hour · smallest move size with matches, picked for you

Pick a window and a move size: how often did a move at least that big follow?

WINDOWMOVE SIZE

🔒 Measured after every match, never by keeping winners. 20 of the matches have a complete 1 hour forward.

What are MFE and MAE?

Why 72 hours can show fewer than 1 hour: a match too recent for a complete 72 hours is left out of that count entirely, even if it already reached the level within 1 hour. The two counts cover different sets of matches.

When they happened - one bar per UTC day, all 20 matches

About 0.6 a day, on 8 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Where the next 30 minutes landed - 20 measured, 0 too recent

Forward 30-minute returns across 20 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like.

How to read a distribution

Upside reached · 24hThe most price moved up within 24h of each occurrence: a high-water mark, never a close. 20 with a complete 24h.

Drawdown · 24hThe worst price moved against within 24h of each occurrence: the deepest point, never the close. 20 with a complete 24h.

Versus baseline

Historically, when any eligible BTRUSDT minute in the window (baseline) held (30,680 occurrences in the scanned window, 29,237 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 21,657 of 29,237 (74.1) and drew down 10%+ in 9,590 of 29,237 (32.8). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

The full record

The same setup counted over every recorded day on BTRUSDT (2026-08-09 to 2026-09-08), growing daily.

Historically, when Crowd long, leaders not on BTRUSDT over the full record held (20 occurrences in the scanned window, 20 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 15 of 20 (75.0) and drew down 10%+ in 1 of 20 (5.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

WHAT FOLLOWED · ALL 20 MATCHES

20 of 20 (100.0%) reached +0% or more within 1 hour · smallest move size with matches, picked for you

Pick a window and a move size: how often did a move at least that big follow?

WINDOWMOVE SIZE

🔒 Measured after every match, never by keeping winners. 20 of the matches have a complete 1 hour forward.

What are MFE and MAE?

When they happened - one bar per UTC day, all 20 matches

About 0.6 a day, on 8 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Where the next 30 minutes landed - 20 measured, 0 too recent

Forward 30-minute returns across 20 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like.

How to read a distribution

Check our work: the key that re-runs this exact count (q#f58d28bc)

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: cbaead34c4193bce6fcd165b579f45236bd1961521f84932d458473d0a2bae69
query hash: f58d28bcad73f07d8e9ec11d20825cbafe548692c30e52c005385ecd2617d954
scanned window: 2026-08-09T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this yourself, over the API or from an AI agent

This is the exact search definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.top_global_long_skew",
        "lte",
        -0.1
      ],
      [
        "feature.global_long_ratio",
        "gte",
        0.65
      ],
      [
        "identity.symbol",
        "eq",
        "btrusdt"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-08-09T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.top_global_long_skew","lte",-0.1],["feature.global_long_ratio","gte",0.65],["identity.symbol","eq","btrusdt"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-08-09T00:00:00.000Z","2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

How to read this

Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.

Everything measured on BTRUSDT right now: the BTRUSDT research page