< Crowd long, leaders not1000PEPEUSDT · historical base rate

Crowd long, leaders not on 1000PEPEUSDT

Global accounts sit at least 65% long while top traders run at least 10 points less long than the crowd.

What has happened on 1000PEPEUSDT when it held

Historically, when Crowd long, leaders not on 1000PEPEUSDT held (22 occurrences in the scanned window, 22 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 3 of 22 (13.6) and drew down 10%+ in 0 of 22 (0.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED - ALL 22 MATCHES, FROM THE PER-SCAN SUMMARY

0 OF 22 (0.0%) REACHED ≥ +5% WITHIN 1H

METRIC MFE_1H · CHIPS RE-READ THE SUMMARY, NEVER RE-QUERY

🔒 COMPUTED FORWARD, NEVER A FILTER · DENOMINATOR 22 = MATCHES WITH A COMPLETE 1H HORIZON

OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 22 - ALL 22, NOT THE PAGE

About 0.7 a day, on 9 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 22 PRESENT · 0 ABSENT

Forward 30-minute returns across 22 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like.

Versus baseline

Historically, when any eligible 1000PEPEUSDT minute in the window (baseline) held (33,009 occurrences in the scanned window, 31,506 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 8,319 of 31,506 (26.4) and drew down 10%+ in 22 of 31,506 (0.1). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

The full record

The same setup counted over every recorded day on 1000PEPEUSDT (2026-05-15 to 2026-07-31), growing daily.

Historically, when Crowd long, leaders not on 1000PEPEUSDT over the full record held (23 occurrences in the scanned window, 23 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 3 of 23 (13.0) and drew down 10%+ in 0 of 23 (0.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

WHAT FOLLOWED - ALL 23 MATCHES, FROM THE PER-SCAN SUMMARY

0 OF 23 (0.0%) REACHED ≥ +5% WITHIN 1H

METRIC MFE_1H · CHIPS RE-READ THE SUMMARY, NEVER RE-QUERY

🔒 COMPUTED FORWARD, NEVER A FILTER · DENOMINATOR 23 = MATCHES WITH A COMPLETE 1H HORIZON

OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 23 - ALL 23, NOT THE PAGE

About 0.3 a day, on 10 of 78 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 23 PRESENT · 0 ABSENT

Forward 30-minute returns across 23 matches: 57% of them finished up.

Reproducibility key (q#5a14b92b)

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: 52a43a418a97fbe3a324f7c372fa4d53967163acaa0ed33c56b78ddd897331a4
query hash: 5a14b92bdefedf05b0b71926bdd3720da1d028472dc33a6425619b609764c405
scanned window: 2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this over the API or MCP

This is the exact research_query.v2 definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and diff the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.top_global_long_skew",
        "lte",
        -0.1
      ],
      [
        "feature.global_long_ratio",
        "gte",
        0.65
      ],
      [
        "identity.symbol",
        "eq",
        "1000pepeusdt"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.top_global_long_skew","lte",-0.1],["feature.global_long_ratio","gte",0.65],["identity.symbol","eq","1000pepeusdt"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

How to read this

Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.

Everything measured on 1000PEPEUSDT right now: the 1000PEPEUSDT research page