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< Crowd long, leaders not
TAKEUSDT · recorded history

Crowd long, leaders not on TAKEUSDT

Global accounts sit at least 65% long while top traders run at least 10 points less long than the crowd.

Read it in context

  1. Read TAKEUSDT itself

    Inspect TAKEUSDT now or at a past minute

  2. Its recorded moves

    TAKEUSDT market events and replays

  3. Test it on TAKEUSDT, then plan it

    A tested result leads to Plan a trade, which measures what trading it would have paid after costs.

    Edit this test in Workbench

What happened in the next 24 hours?

This condition showed no clear difference for either move.

Other minutes are the same markets and dates without this condition. Each percentage is the share of measured minutes that reached that move from the starting price.

Price touched +5% or higher

When this held
43.3% · 13 of 30 minutes
Other minutes
41.2% · 4,640 of 11,265 minutes

Price touched −10% or lower

When this held
33.3% · 10 of 30 minutes
Other minutes
33.0% · 3,715 of 11,265 minutes

Price can touch both levels within the same 24 hours.

This counts how often price touched a level, not what trading it would have paid.

Sample and counting

All 30 matches have a full 24 hours after them.

Every condition is measured over the same 24 hours, whatever the length of its own reading. Other windows and move sizes shows shorter and longer windows.

When it happened
Matches per UTC day, 2026-08-31 to 2026-09-30

About 1 a day, on 15 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Other windows and move sizes
Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move1 hour4 hours24 hours72 hours7 days
Measured3030302827
Too recent00023
+0.1% or more27 (90.0%)27 (90.0%)29 (96.7%)2727
+0.2% or more25 (83.3%)27 (90.0%)29 (96.7%)2727
+0.5% or more16 (53.3%)23 (76.7%)27 (90.0%)2627
+1% or more11 (36.7%)17 (56.7%)25 (83.3%)2526
+2% or more6 (20.0%)11 (36.7%)21 (70.0%)2325
+5% or more1 (3.3%)2 (6.7%)13 (43.3%)2121
+10% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)4 (13.3%)1416
+15% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)1 (3.3%)913
+20% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)25
+30% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)23
+50% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)23
+100% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)23
+200% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)23
−0.1% or lower29 (96.7%)30 (100.0%)30 (100.0%)2827
−0.2% or lower25 (83.3%)29 (96.7%)30 (100.0%)2827
−0.5% or lower20 (66.7%)25 (83.3%)30 (100.0%)2827
−1% or lower15 (50.0%)21 (70.0%)27 (90.0%)2827
−2% or lower9 (30.0%)20 (66.7%)23 (76.7%)2627
−5% or lower1 (3.3%)7 (23.3%)15 (50.0%)2127
−10% or lower0 (0.0%)2 (6.7%)10 (33.3%)1523
−15% or lower0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)7 (23.3%)79
−20% or lower0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)2 (6.7%)33

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Distributions and daily counts
Upside reached · 24hUpside reached (MFE, 24h)The most price moved up within 24 hours of each match: a high-water mark, never a close. 30 with a complete 24 hours.
Drawdown · 24hDrawdown (MAE, 24h)The worst price moved against within 24 hours of each match: the deepest point, never the close. 30 with a complete 24 hours.
Price 30 minutes laterForward 30-minute returnForward 30-minute returns across 30 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like. 0 too recent.

How to read a distribution

Matches per UTC day

  • 31 Aug4 matches
  • 1 Sep4 matches
  • 2 Sep2 matches
  • 3 Sep1 match
  • 4 Sep4 matches
  • 5 Sep0 matches
  • 6 Sep1 match
  • 7 Sep1 match
  • 8 Sep2 matches
  • 9 Sep2 matches
  • 10 Sep0 matches
  • 11 Sep0 matches
  • 12 Sep0 matches
  • 13 Sep1 match
  • 14 Sep2 matches
  • 15 Sep0 matches
  • 16 Sep0 matches
  • 17 Sep0 matches
  • 18 Sep0 matches
  • 19 Sep1 match
  • 20 Sep2 matches
  • 21 Sep0 matches
  • 22 Sep0 matches
  • 23 Sep0 matches
  • 24 Sep1 match
  • 25 Sep0 matches
  • 26 Sep0 matches
  • 27 Sep2 matches
  • 28 Sep0 matches
  • 29 Sep0 matches
  • 30 Sep0 matches
How this is counted
  • Each rate counts only matches with the full window after them.
  • A minute where a reading was missing is left out and reported, not read as zero.
  • The condition picks the setup, never the outcome: a definition that filters on what followed is rejected (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE). Every match is measured, winners and losers alike.
  • "Other minutes" is every other eligible minute in the same market and window. It is a reference, not a control group.
  • "Reached +5%" uses the highest price inside the window (maximum favourable excursion, MFE); "fell to −10%" uses the lowest (maximum adverse excursion, MAE). Neither is the close.
  • Checked 43,201 eligible market-minutes (eligible_symbol_buckets) on TAKEUSDT, 2026-08-31 00:00 to 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC.

What are MFE and MAE?

Reproducibility key (q#80db897d)

The key that re-runs this exact count. Same key, same bytes; when the record grows, the dataset revision changes.

grammar
research_query.v2
normalization
archive_normalization.v1
feature library
feature_defs.v1
dataset revision
a0160256ea9f4a3d28b8c1be4b86af7c96dd894337c5da49f65d25ba8ef55f0b
query hash
80db897d345f31d6237724bf171816a3d9510f9b74873743355e9ab920ebaef4
scanned window
2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Re-run over the API

The exact search definition behind this count. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes; a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.top_global_long_skew",
        "lte",
        -0.1
      ],
      [
        "feature.global_long_ratio",
        "gte",
        0.65
      ],
      [
        "identity.symbol",
        "eq",
        "takeusdt"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}
curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.top_global_long_skew","lte",-0.1],["feature.global_long_ratio","gte",0.65],["identity.symbol","eq","takeusdt"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

Past examples from the record, not a guarantee or a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.