COWUSDT · historical base rate

Crowd long, leaders not on COWUSDT

Global accounts sit at least 65% long while top traders run at least 10 points less long than the crowd.

What has happened on COWUSDT when it held

Historically, when Crowd long, leaders not on COWUSDT held (29 occurrences in the scanned window, 27 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 0 of 27 (0.0) and drew down 10%+ in 0 of 27 (0.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED · ALL 29 MATCHES

0 of 27 (0.0%) reached +5% or more within 1 hour

Pick a move size and a window: how often did a move at least that big follow?

🔒 Measured after every match, never by keeping winners. 27 of the matches have a complete 1 hour forward; the other 2 are too recent to know.

What are MFE and MAE?

When they happened - one bar per UTC day, all 29 matches

About 0.9 a day, on 10 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Where the next 30 minutes landed - 25 measured, 4 too recent

Forward 30-minute returns across 25 matches: 72% of them finished up.

How to read a distribution

Upside reached · 24hThe most price moved up within 24h of each occurrence: a high-water mark, never a close. 27 with a complete 24h.

Drawdown · 24hThe worst price moved against within 24h of each occurrence: the deepest point, never the close. 27 with a complete 24h.

Versus baseline

Historically, when any eligible COWUSDT minute in the window (baseline) held (24,466 occurrences in the scanned window, 21,006 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 469 of 21,006 (2.2) and drew down 10%+ in 0 of 21,006 (0.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Check our work: the key that re-runs this exact count (q#17d3ebe4)

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: b49b614681261e550f26db551c43d7bbb8a19c4343c6163b1de13cdc0e2fbf5f
query hash: 17d3ebe486dbf26c10df8ef1469aa3a6455610849a25dde7f11511676e3a9501
scanned window: 2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this yourself, over the API or from an AI agent

This is the exact search definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.top_global_long_skew",
        "lte",
        -0.1
      ],
      [
        "feature.global_long_ratio",
        "gte",
        0.65
      ],
      [
        "identity.symbol",
        "eq",
        "cowusdt"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.top_global_long_skew","lte",-0.1],["feature.global_long_ratio","gte",0.65],["identity.symbol","eq","cowusdt"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z","2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

How to read this

Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.

Everything measured on COWUSDT right now: the COWUSDT research page