< All conditionsLive condition · historical base rate

Whale prints carrying a third of volume

Large trades have accounted for at least a third of traded volume over the last 15 minutes.

Firing now (provisional, current bucket)

The live read is not yet enabled. This surface reports the historical base rates below; the firing-now list turns on when the live evaluator is connected.

What has happened when it held

Historically, when Whale prints carrying a third of volume held (7,632 occurrences in the scanned window, 7,396 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 842 of 7,396 (11.4) and drew down 10%+ in 286 of 7,396 (3.9). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED - ALL 7,632 MATCHES, FROM THE PER-SCAN SUMMARY

21 OF 7,614 (0.3%) REACHED ≥ +5% WITHIN 1H

METRIC MFE_1H · CHIPS RE-READ THE SUMMARY, NEVER RE-QUERY

🔒 COMPUTED FORWARD, NEVER A FILTER · DENOMINATOR 7,614 = MATCHES WITH A COMPLETE 1H HORIZON (18 ABSENT: TOO CLOSE TO THE RECORD EDGE FOR 1H - NEVER TRUNCATED, NEVER AN IMPLIED ZERO)

OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 7632 - ALL 7,632, NOT THE PAGE

About 246 a day, on 29 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 7,555 PRESENT · 77 ABSENT

Forward 30-minute returns across 7,555 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like.

Versus baseline

Historically, when any eligible minute in the window (baseline) held (27,154,800 occurrences in the scanned window, 24,203,746 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 5,650,719 of 24,203,746 (23.3) and drew down 10%+ in 1,349,704 of 24,203,746 (5.6). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

By market

Markets where this condition occurred often enough in the window to carry its own statistically meaningful receipt:

1000BONKUSDT 1000PEPEUSDT ADAUSDT ARBUSDT ATOMUSDT AVAXUSDT BNBUSDT BTCUSDT DOGEUSDT DOTUSDT ETHUSDT FARTCOINUSDT FILUSDT HYPEUSDT INJUSDT LINKUSDT LTCUSDT NEARUSDT OPUSDT SOLUSDT SUIUSDT TIAUSDT TRXUSDT WLDUSDT XRPUSDT

Reproducibility key (q#497dd79e)

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: 52a43a418a97fbe3a324f7c372fa4d53967163acaa0ed33c56b78ddd897331a4
query hash: 497dd79e2dd2eb936a9cc320f7301e2609233c40fd263348581a834b94d810f7
scanned window: 2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this over the API or MCP

This is the exact research_query.v2 definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and diff the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.large_trade_share_15m",
        "gte",
        0.33
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.large_trade_share_15m","gte",0.33],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

How to read this

Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.