Condition · recorded history

Funding deeply negative into settlement

Funding is at or below -1% with 30 minutes or less to the next settlement.

What is funding?

Recorded window: 9 Sept 2026 to 8 Oct 2026 (UTC). Counted 10 Oct 2026 at 08:17 UTC.

Read it in context

  1. On one market

    Each market page compares that market with its own minutes, not with every market at once.

  2. Test it, then plan it

    Narrow it to your markets and dates in the Workbench. A tested result leads to Plan a trade, which measures what trading it would have paid after costs.

By market

No market has its own page for this condition yet. Pages are rebuilt nightly for the most-traded markets with at least 20 matches.

Every market pooled, without context

What happened in the next 24 hours?

Both moves were more common than on minutes without it.

Other minutes are the same markets and dates without this condition. Each percentage is the share of measured minutes that reached that move from the starting price.

Price touched +5% or higher

When this held
59.6% · 31 of 52 minutes
Other minutes
33.9% · 7,328,072 of 21,600,880 minutes

Price touched −10% or lower

When this held
51.9% · 27 of 52 minutes
Other minutes
6.2% · 1,344,891 of 21,600,880 minutes

Price can touch both levels within the same 24 hours.

Every matching minute counts, so one long run adds many near-identical minutes. Busy markets weigh most.

Every condition is measured over the same 24 hours, whatever the length of its own reading. Other windows and move sizes shows shorter and longer windows.

This counts how often price touched a level, not what trading it would have paid.

Sample and counting

All 52 matches, pooled across 524 markets, have a full 24 hours after them.

When it happened
Matches per UTC day, 2026-09-09 to 2026-10-09

About 1.7 a day, on 18 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Other windows and move sizes
Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move1 hour4 hours24 hours72 hours7 days
Measured5252525045
Too recent00027
+0.1% or more50 (96.2%)52 (100.0%)52 (100.0%)50 (100.0%)45 (100.0%)
+0.2% or more46 (88.5%)50 (96.2%)51 (98.1%)49 (98.0%)44 (97.8%)
+0.5% or more33 (63.5%)42 (80.8%)47 (90.4%)48 (96.0%)44 (97.8%)
+1% or more27 (51.9%)37 (71.2%)44 (84.6%)46 (92.0%)43 (95.6%)
+2% or more17 (32.7%)29 (55.8%)42 (80.8%)43 (86.0%)40 (88.9%)
+5% or more9 (17.3%)17 (32.7%)31 (59.6%)32 (64.0%)35 (77.8%)
+10% or more6 (11.5%)11 (21.2%)22 (42.3%)23 (46.0%)24 (53.3%)
+15% or more2 (3.8%)8 (15.4%)18 (34.6%)18 (36.0%)20 (44.4%)
+20% or more0 (0.0%)5 (9.6%)13 (25.0%)14 (28.0%)15 (33.3%)
+30% or more0 (0.0%)3 (5.8%)8 (15.4%)11 (22.0%)12 (26.7%)
+50% or more0 (0.0%)2 (3.8%)6 (11.5%)10 (20.0%)9 (20.0%)
+100% or more0 (0.0%)1 (1.9%)1 (1.9%)5 (10.0%)5 (11.1%)
+200% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)1 (2.0%)1 (2.2%)
−0.1% or lower52 (100.0%)52 (100.0%)52 (100.0%)50 (100.0%)45 (100.0%)
−0.2% or lower52 (100.0%)52 (100.0%)52 (100.0%)50 (100.0%)45 (100.0%)
−0.5% or lower51 (98.1%)52 (100.0%)52 (100.0%)50 (100.0%)45 (100.0%)
−1% or lower47 (90.4%)50 (96.2%)52 (100.0%)50 (100.0%)45 (100.0%)
−2% or lower36 (69.2%)44 (84.6%)51 (98.1%)49 (98.0%)44 (97.8%)
−5% or lower17 (32.7%)29 (55.8%)43 (82.7%)47 (94.0%)42 (93.3%)
−10% or lower4 (7.7%)14 (26.9%)27 (51.9%)38 (76.0%)34 (75.6%)
−15% or lower2 (3.8%)6 (11.5%)20 (38.5%)29 (58.0%)28 (62.2%)
−20% or lower0 (0.0%)3 (5.8%)14 (26.9%)21 (42.0%)23 (51.1%)
−30% or lower0 (0.0%)1 (1.9%)4 (7.7%)8 (16.0%)10 (22.2%)
−50% or lower0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)3 (5.8%)4 (8.0%)4 (8.9%)

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Distributions and daily counts
Upside reached · 24hUpside reached (MFE, 24h)The most price moved up within 24 hours of each match: a high-water mark, never a close. 52 with a complete 24 hours.
Drawdown · 24hDrawdown (MAE, 24h)The worst price moved against within 24 hours of each match: the deepest point, never the close. 52 with a complete 24 hours.
Price 30 minutes laterForward 30-minute returnForward 30-minute returns across 52 matches: 75% of them finished down. 0 too recent.

How to read a distribution

Matches per UTC day

  • 9 Sep0 matches
  • 10 Sep2 matches
  • 11 Sep1 match
  • 12 Sep0 matches
  • 13 Sep10 matches
  • 14 Sep6 matches
  • 15 Sep7 matches
  • 16 Sep2 matches
  • 17 Sep3 matches
  • 18 Sep1 match
  • 19 Sep0 matches
  • 20 Sep7 matches
  • 21 Sep2 matches
  • 22 Sep1 match
  • 23 Sep1 match
  • 24 Sep0 matches
  • 25 Sep0 matches
  • 26 Sep1 match
  • 27 Sep0 matches
  • 28 Sep0 matches
  • 29 Sep0 matches
  • 30 Sep1 match
  • 1 Oct0 matches
  • 2 Oct0 matches
  • 3 Oct1 match
  • 4 Oct0 matches
  • 5 Oct3 matches
  • 6 Oct1 match
  • 7 Oct0 matches
  • 8 Oct2 matches
  • 9 Oct0 matches
How this is counted
  • Each rate counts only matches with the full window after them.
  • A minute where a reading was missing is left out and reported, not read as zero.
  • The condition picks the setup, never the outcome: a definition that filters on what followed is rejected (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE). Every match is measured, winners and losers alike.
  • "Other minutes" is every other eligible minute in the same markets and window. It is a reference, not a control group.
  • "Reached +5%" uses the highest price inside the window (maximum favourable excursion, MFE); "fell to −10%" uses the lowest (maximum adverse excursion, MAE). Neither is the close.
  • Checked 22,583,758 eligible market-minutes (eligible_symbol_buckets) on 524 markets, 2026-09-09 00:00 to 2026-10-09 00:00 UTC.
  • These counts pool every market, so markets that match often weigh more. Each market page compares that market with its own reference.
  • Live status is not connected yet, so this page is recorded history only.

What are MFE and MAE?

Reproducibility key (q#734ee735)

The key that re-runs this exact count. Same key, same bytes; when the record grows, the dataset revision changes.

grammar
research_query.v2
normalization
archive_normalization.v1
feature library
feature_defs.v1
dataset revision
f1559c732c4e32efee9dc17d1301ea7809806777b70840d10aed7a33ef17b14a
query hash
734ee7358c37a9ea28d3118e9b8ef70d8f0127863aaf5af350bebd3bd780d097
scanned window
2026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Re-run over the API

The exact search definition behind this count. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes; a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.funding_rate",
        "lte",
        -0.01
      ],
      [
        "feature.mins_to_funding",
        "lte",
        30
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}
curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.funding_rate","lte",-0.01],["feature.mins_to_funding","lte",30],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z","2026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

Past examples from the record, not a guarantee or a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.