< All conditionsLive condition · historical base rate

Funding deeply negative into settlement

Funding is at or below -1% with 30 minutes or less to the next settlement.

Firing now (provisional, current bucket)

The live read is not yet enabled. This surface reports the historical base rates below; the firing-now list turns on when the live evaluator is connected.

What has happened when it held

Historically, when Funding deeply negative into settlement held (61 occurrences in the scanned window, 59 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 37 of 59 (62.7) and drew down 10%+ in 38 of 59 (64.4). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED - ALL 61 MATCHES, FROM THE PER-SCAN SUMMARY

15 OF 61 (24.6%) REACHED ≥ +5% WITHIN 1H

METRIC MFE_1H · CHIPS RE-READ THE SUMMARY, NEVER RE-QUERY

🔒 COMPUTED FORWARD, NEVER A FILTER · DENOMINATOR 61 = MATCHES WITH A COMPLETE 1H HORIZON

OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 61 - ALL 61, NOT THE PAGE

About 2 a day, on 22 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 61 PRESENT · 0 ABSENT

Forward 30-minute returns across 61 matches: 61% of them finished down.

Versus baseline

Historically, when any eligible minute in the window (baseline) held (27,403,790 occurrences in the scanned window, 24,330,175 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 5,656,837 of 24,330,175 (23.3) and drew down 10%+ in 1,349,964 of 24,330,175 (5.5). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Reproducibility key (q#c10a35a5)

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: 52a43a418a97fbe3a324f7c372fa4d53967163acaa0ed33c56b78ddd897331a4
query hash: c10a35a528b875e25e29cdabdaba062a5e07bf613b1763f96ede2a9dc022ef02
scanned window: 2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this over the API or MCP

This is the exact research_query.v2 definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and diff the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.funding_rate",
        "lte",
        -0.01
      ],
      [
        "feature.mins_to_funding",
        "lte",
        30
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.funding_rate","lte",-0.01],["feature.mins_to_funding","lte",30],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

How to read this

Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.