Condition · recorded history

Order book heavily bid-sided

At the best quoted prices, bid quantity was at least three quarters of the combined bid and ask quantity.

What is book imbalance?

Recorded window: 5 Oct 2026 to 3 Nov 2026 (UTC). Counted 4 Nov 2026 at 08:51 UTC.

Read it in context

  1. On one market

    Each market page compares that market with its own minutes, not with every market at once.

  2. Test it, then plan it

    Narrow it to your markets and dates in the Workbench. A tested result leads to Plan a trade, which measures what trading it would have paid after costs.

By market

Results vary by market. Compare a market before drawing a conclusion.

All 135 markets
How results varied by market

Range across 135 markets with at least 30 measured: reached +5% within 24 hours in 0 of 639 on BNBUSDT (0%) to 519 of 638 on CYSUSDT (81%).

Every market pooled, without context

What happened in the next 24 hours?

This condition showed no clear difference for either move.

Other minutes are the same markets and dates without this condition. Each percentage is the share of measured minutes that reached that move from the starting price.

Price touched +5% or higher

When this held
23.8% · 80,902 of 339,697 minutes
Other minutes
24.2% · 3,803,084 of 15,689,949 minutes

Price touched −10% or lower

When this held
8.5% · 29,004 of 339,697 minutes
Other minutes
8.5% · 1,337,211 of 15,689,949 minutes

Price can touch both levels within the same 24 hours.

Every matching minute counts, so one long run adds many near-identical minutes. Busy markets weigh most.

Every condition is measured over the same 24 hours, whatever the length of its own reading. Other windows and move sizes shows shorter and longer windows.

This counts how often price touched a level, not what trading it would have paid.

Sample and counting

Rates use the 339,697 of 348,881 matches, pooled across 523 markets, with a full 24 hours after them. The 9,184 newer ones are left out, not counted as zero.

When it happened
Matches per UTC day, 2026-10-05 to 2026-11-04

About 11,254 a day, on 31 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Other windows and move sizes
Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move1 hour4 hours24 hours72 hours7 days
Measured346,931346,931339,697316,738270,841
Too recent1,9501,9509,18432,14378,040
+0.1% or more305,432 (88.0%)325,507 (93.8%)330,544 (97.3%)311,077 (98.2%)267,434 (98.7%)
+0.2% or more267,527 (77.1%)305,342 (88.0%)321,859 (94.7%)305,735 (96.5%)264,231 (97.6%)
+0.5% or more173,776 (50.1%)248,750 (71.7%)296,299 (87.2%)289,964 (91.5%)254,329 (93.9%)
+1% or more84,095 (24.2%)172,377 (49.7%)256,051 (75.4%)265,159 (83.7%)238,568 (88.1%)
+2% or more25,928 (7.5%)84,829 (24.5%)190,535 (56.1%)222,282 (70.2%)209,740 (77.4%)
+5% or more4,106 (1.2%)18,618 (5.4%)80,902 (23.8%)131,456 (41.5%)142,265 (52.5%)
+10% or more1,037 (0.3%)4,843 (1.4%)27,447 (8.1%)60,247 (19.0%)80,533 (29.7%)
+15% or more455 (0.1%)2,256 (0.7%)14,263 (4.2%)34,304 (10.8%)51,635 (19.1%)
+20% or more235 (0.1%)1,251 (0.4%)8,558 (2.5%)22,029 (7.0%)35,763 (13.2%)
+30% or more92 (<0.1%)553 (0.2%)4,433 (1.3%)11,968 (3.8%)21,249 (7.8%)
+50% or more26 (<0.1%)199 (0.1%)1,725 (0.5%)5,789 (1.8%)11,612 (4.3%)
+100% or more5 (<0.1%)35 (<0.1%)480 (0.1%)1,791 (0.6%)4,294 (1.6%)
+200% or more0 (0.0%)7 (<0.1%)100 (<0.1%)587 (0.2%)1,569 (0.6%)
+400% or more0 (0.0%)1 (<0.1%)22 (<0.1%)103 (<0.1%)409 (0.2%)
−0.1% or lower304,059 (87.6%)327,236 (94.3%)334,095 (98.4%)314,530 (99.3%)270,196 (99.8%)
−0.2% or lower269,630 (77.7%)310,535 (89.5%)329,573 (97.0%)312,909 (98.8%)269,733 (99.6%)
−0.5% or lower178,925 (51.6%)261,841 (75.5%)315,782 (93.0%)307,948 (97.2%)268,354 (99.1%)
−1% or lower85,145 (24.5%)189,874 (54.7%)291,227 (85.7%)298,746 (94.3%)265,736 (98.1%)
−2% or lower25,646 (7.4%)94,093 (27.1%)237,637 (70.0%)277,622 (87.7%)259,779 (95.9%)
−5% or lower3,875 (1.1%)18,212 (5.2%)113,668 (33.5%)215,753 (68.1%)237,616 (87.7%)
−10% or lower684 (0.2%)3,170 (0.9%)29,004 (8.5%)105,812 (33.4%)169,828 (62.7%)
−15% or lower251 (0.1%)1,109 (0.3%)8,396 (2.5%)34,740 (11.0%)84,005 (31.0%)
−20% or lower108 (<0.1%)498 (0.1%)3,723 (1.1%)12,353 (3.9%)34,204 (12.6%)
−30% or lower33 (<0.1%)162 (<0.1%)1,251 (0.4%)3,868 (1.2%)8,642 (3.2%)
−50% or lower3 (<0.1%)18 (<0.1%)171 (0.1%)749 (0.2%)2,026 (0.7%)

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Distributions and daily counts
Upside reached · 24hUpside reached (MFE, 24h)The most price moved up within 24 hours of each match: a high-water mark, never a close. 339,697 with a complete 24 hours.
Drawdown · 24hDrawdown (MAE, 24h)The worst price moved against within 24 hours of each match: the deepest point, never the close. 339,697 with a complete 24 hours.
Price 30 minutes laterForward 30-minute returnForward 30-minute returns across 344,494 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like. 4,387 too recent.

How to read a distribution

Matches per UTC day

  • 5 Oct11,900 matches
  • 6 Oct11,679 matches
  • 7 Oct11,675 matches
  • 8 Oct11,690 matches
  • 9 Oct11,670 matches
  • 10 Oct11,621 matches
  • 11 Oct11,632 matches
  • 12 Oct11,703 matches
  • 13 Oct11,670 matches
  • 14 Oct11,697 matches
  • 15 Oct11,675 matches
  • 16 Oct11,676 matches
  • 17 Oct11,642 matches
  • 18 Oct11,667 matches
  • 19 Oct11,643 matches
  • 20 Oct11,636 matches
  • 21 Oct11,653 matches
  • 22 Oct11,631 matches
  • 23 Oct11,635 matches
  • 24 Oct11,572 matches
  • 25 Oct11,553 matches
  • 26 Oct11,598 matches
  • 27 Oct11,565 matches
  • 28 Oct11,565 matches
  • 29 Oct11,552 matches
  • 30 Oct11,563 matches
  • 31 Oct11,479 matches
  • 1 Nov11,499 matches
  • 2 Nov11,572 matches
  • 3 Nov11,561 matches
  • 4 Nov7 matches
How this is counted
  • Each rate counts only matches with the full window after them.
  • A minute where a reading was missing is left out and reported, not read as zero.
  • The condition picks the setup, never the outcome: a definition that filters on what followed is rejected (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE). Every match is measured, winners and losers alike.
  • "Other minutes" is every other eligible minute in the same markets and window. It is a reference, not a control group.
  • "Reached +5%" uses the highest price inside the window (maximum favourable excursion, MFE); "fell to −10%" uses the lowest (maximum adverse excursion, MAE). Neither is the close.
  • Checked 22,388,668 eligible market-minutes (eligible_symbol_buckets) on 523 markets, 2026-10-05 00:00 to 2026-11-04 00:00 UTC.
  • These counts pool every market, so markets that match often weigh more. Each market page compares that market with its own reference.
  • Live status is not connected yet, so this page is recorded history only.

What are MFE and MAE?

Reproducibility key (q#ba58338d)

The key that re-runs this exact count. Same key, same bytes; when the record grows, the dataset revision changes.

grammar
research_query.v2
normalization
archive_normalization.v1
feature library
feature_defs.v1
dataset revision
76ea4bd9d04b87b59fb9547bc00ed7ab573aee44ec184048dd91d1f17ee99a95
query hash
ba58338dd0dcf9760eb5749a5f9fc9e7e789d8fd9d1b495ed9d3b650eb502c0e
scanned window
2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Re-run over the API

The exact search definition behind this count. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes; a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.book_imbalance",
        "gte",
        0.5
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}
curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.book_imbalance","gte",0.5],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z","2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

Past examples from the record, not a guarantee or a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.