Condition · recorded history

Hourly engulfing candle

The last completed hourly candle is an engulfing formation, either the "bullish" or "bearish" variant.

Recorded window: 6 Sept 2026 to 5 Oct 2026 (UTC). Counted 6 Oct 2026 at 08:22 UTC.

What happened in the next 24 hours?

This condition showed no clear difference for either move.

Other minutes are the same markets and dates without this condition. Each percentage is the share of measured minutes that reached that move from the starting price.

Price touched +5% or higher

When this held: 32.7% · 7,552 of 23,109 minutes
Other minutes: 33.9% · 6,835,772 of 20,140,583 minutes

Price touched −10% or lower

When this held: 6.7% · 1,552 of 23,109 minutes
Other minutes: 6.2% · 1,244,238 of 20,140,583 minutes

Price can touch both levels within the same 24 hours.

Sample and counting

Rates use the 23,109 of 24,165 matches, pooled across 524 markets, with a full 24 hours after them. The 1,056 newer ones are left out, not counted as zero.

Edit this test in Workbench

By market

Results vary by market. Compare a market before drawing a conclusion.

Most matches:BRUSDT BLUAIUSDT SKRUSDT BLESSUSDT RAYSOLUSDT BTWUSDT

All 129 markets

1000BONKUSDT 1000PEPEUSDT 1000RATSUSDT 1000SHIBUSDT 4USDT AAVEUSDT ACEUSDT ADAUSDT AINUSDT AIOUSDT AKEUSDT APRUSDT APTUSDT ARBUSDT ARKUSDT ASTERUSDT ATOMUSDT AVAXUSDT BANKUSDT BCHUSDT BEATUSDT BICOUSDT BLESSUSDT BLUAIUSDT BMTUSDT BNBUSDT BOMEUSDT BRUSDT BTCUSDT BTRUSDT BTWUSDT BULLAUSDT CAPUSDT COTIUSDT COWUSDT CYSUSDT DASHUSDT DEXEUSDT DOGEUSDT DOTUSDT EDENUSDT ENAUSDT ESPORTSUSDT ESPUSDT ETHUSDT EULUSDT FARTCOINUSDT FILUSDT FLOCKUSDT GIGGLEUSDT GPSUSDT GUSDT GWEIUSDT HBARUSDT HEIUSDT HEMIUSDT HFTUSDT HOMEUSDT HYPEUSDT INJUSDT IOSTUSDT KAITOUSDT KOMAUSDT LABUSDT LAUSDT LINKUSDT LITUSDT LSKUSDT LTCUSDT MAGMAUSDT MARSCOINUSDT MMTUSDT MOVRUSDT MUBARAKUSDT NEARUSDT NILUSDT ONDOUSDT ONEUSDT ONGUSDT ONUSDT OPUSDT ORDIUSDT PAXGUSDT PENGUUSDT PHAUSDT POLUSDT PONSUSDT PORTALUSDT PROMUSDT PUMPUSDT QNTUSDT QUSDT RAYSOLUSDT RIFUSDT SAGAUSDT SEIUSDT SKRUSDT SKYAIUSDT SOLUSDT SOONUSDT SOPHUSDT SUIUSDT SYNUSDT TACUSDT TAKEUSDT TAOUSDT TIAUSDT TRUMPUSDT TRXUSDT TUSDT TUTUSDT UAIUSDT UBUSDT UNIUSDT USELESSUSDT VELVETUSDT VTHOUSDT VVVUSDT WIFUSDT WLDUSDT WLFIUSDT XLMUSDT XMRUSDT XPLUSDT XRPUSDT ZAMAUSDT ZECUSDT ZKCUSDT ZROUSDT

How results varied by market

Range across 119 markets with at least 30 measured: reached +5% within 24 hours in 0 of 42 on PAXGUSDT (0%) to 42 of 47 on CAPUSDT (89%).

When it happened

About 780 a day, on 31 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Other windows and move sizes

Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move	1 hour	4 hours	24 hours	72 hours	7 days
Measured	23,583	23,583	23,109	21,634	18,053
Too recent	582	582	1,056	2,531	6,112
+0.1% or more	21,052 (89.3%)	22,363 (94.8%)	22,689 (98.2%)	21,427 (99.0%)	17,960 (99.5%)
+0.2% or more	18,863 (80.0%)	21,292 (90.3%)	22,315 (96.6%)	21,256 (98.3%)	17,884 (99.1%)
+0.5% or more	13,143 (55.7%)	18,107 (76.8%)	21,177 (91.6%)	20,734 (95.8%)	17,640 (97.7%)
+1% or more	6,825 (28.9%)	13,341 (56.6%)	19,301 (83.5%)	19,854 (91.8%)	17,207 (95.3%)
+2% or more	2,324 (9.9%)	7,038 (29.8%)	15,693 (67.9%)	17,951 (83.0%)	16,332 (90.5%)
+5% or more	400 (1.7%)	1,564 (6.6%)	7,552 (32.7%)	12,621 (58.3%)	13,673 (75.7%)
+10% or more	122 (0.5%)	436 (1.8%)	2,693 (11.7%)	6,967 (32.2%)	9,930 (55.0%)
+15% or more	38 (0.2%)	202 (0.9%)	1,390 (6.0%)	4,013 (18.5%)	7,069 (39.2%)
+20% or more	14 (0.1%)	106 (0.4%)	839 (3.6%)	2,500 (11.6%)	5,066 (28.1%)
+30% or more	6 (<0.1%)	46 (0.2%)	385 (1.7%)	1,243 (5.7%)	2,837 (15.7%)
+50% or more	1 (<0.1%)	11 (<0.1%)	157 (0.7%)	549 (2.5%)	1,225 (6.8%)
+100% or more	0 (0.0%)	2 (<0.1%)	44 (0.2%)	163 (0.8%)	368 (2.0%)
+200% or more	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	9 (<0.1%)	48 (0.2%)	139 (0.8%)
+400% or more	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	5 (<0.1%)	14 (0.1%)	56 (0.3%)
−0.1% or lower	20,893 (88.6%)	22,330 (94.7%)	22,655 (98.0%)	21,397 (98.9%)	17,899 (99.1%)
−0.2% or lower	18,692 (79.3%)	21,255 (90.1%)	22,241 (96.2%)	21,203 (98.0%)	17,779 (98.5%)
−0.5% or lower	12,826 (54.4%)	17,986 (76.3%)	20,958 (90.7%)	20,497 (94.7%)	17,324 (96.0%)
−1% or lower	6,658 (28.2%)	13,076 (55.4%)	18,754 (81.2%)	19,354 (89.5%)	16,610 (92.0%)
−2% or lower	2,233 (9.5%)	6,686 (28.4%)	14,633 (63.3%)	17,168 (79.4%)	15,408 (85.3%)
−5% or lower	375 (1.6%)	1,291 (5.5%)	6,244 (27.0%)	11,238 (51.9%)	11,926 (66.1%)
−10% or lower	86 (0.4%)	293 (1.2%)	1,552 (6.7%)	4,188 (19.4%)	5,944 (32.9%)
−15% or lower	36 (0.2%)	112 (0.5%)	623 (2.7%)	1,513 (7.0%)	2,475 (13.7%)
−20% or lower	13 (0.1%)	47 (0.2%)	285 (1.2%)	787 (3.6%)	1,287 (7.1%)
−30% or lower	4 (<0.1%)	17 (0.1%)	87 (0.4%)	267 (1.2%)	443 (2.5%)
−50% or lower	0 (0.0%)	1 (<0.1%)	11 (<0.1%)	34 (0.2%)	93 (0.5%)

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Distributions and daily counts

Upside reached · 24hThe most price moved up within 24 hours of each match: a high-water mark, never a close. 23,109 with a complete 24 hours.

Drawdown · 24hThe worst price moved against within 24 hours of each match: the deepest point, never the close. 23,109 with a complete 24 hours.

Price 30 minutes laterForward 30-minute returns across 23,268 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like. 897 too recent.

How to read a distribution

Matches per UTC day

6 Sep878 matches
7 Sep831 matches
8 Sep790 matches
9 Sep873 matches
10 Sep765 matches
11 Sep791 matches
12 Sep682 matches
13 Sep686 matches
14 Sep756 matches
15 Sep821 matches
16 Sep786 matches
17 Sep900 matches
18 Sep638 matches
19 Sep823 matches
20 Sep697 matches
21 Sep915 matches
22 Sep830 matches
23 Sep821 matches
24 Sep823 matches
25 Sep804 matches
26 Sep759 matches
27 Sep838 matches
28 Sep750 matches
29 Sep840 matches
30 Sep1,004 matches
1 Oct894 matches
2 Oct911 matches
3 Oct721 matches
4 Oct805 matches
5 Oct717 matches
6 Oct16 matches

How this is counted

Each rate counts only matches with the full window after them.
A minute where a reading was missing is left out and reported, not read as zero.
The condition picks the setup, never the outcome: a definition that filters on what followed is rejected (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE). Every match is measured, winners and losers alike.
"Other minutes" is every other eligible minute in the same markets and window. It is a reference, not a control group.
"Reached +5%" uses the highest price inside the window (maximum favourable excursion, MFE); "fell to −10%" uses the lowest (maximum adverse excursion, MAE). Neither is the close.
Checked 22,583,018 eligible market-minutes (eligible_symbol_buckets) on 524 markets, 2026-09-06 00:00 to 2026-10-06 00:00 UTC.
These counts pool every market, so markets that match often weigh more. Each market page compares that market with its own reference.
Live status is not connected yet, so this page is recorded history only.

What are MFE and MAE?

Reproducibility key (q#37a883b9)

The key that re-runs this exact count. Same key, same bytes; when the record grows, the dataset revision changes.

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: 55a19cb62643d991cee5d6e0148fa5895cda13d3bf766836a367ed09fabca6b0
query hash: 37a883b9d07482250df1b980a1a9adaa7ae23bade6c751dac0d39ead3ef5391d
scanned window: 2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Re-run over the API

The exact search definition behind this count. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes; a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.candle_engulfing_1h",
        "in",
        [
          "bullish",
          "bearish"
        ]
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.candle_engulfing_1h","in",["bullish","bearish"]],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z","2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'