Condition · recorded history

Hourly engulfing candle

The last completed hourly candle is an engulfing formation, either the "bullish" or "bearish" variant.

What is a base rate?

Recorded window: 5 Oct 2026 to 3 Nov 2026 (UTC). Counted 4 Nov 2026 at 08:19 UTC.

Read it in context

On one market
Each market page compares that market with its own minutes, not with every market at once.
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Test it, then plan it
Narrow it to your markets and dates in the Workbench. A tested result leads to Plan a trade, which measures what trading it would have paid after costs.
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By market

Results vary by market. Compare a market before drawing a conclusion.

Most matches:BRUSDT BLUAIUSDT SKRUSDT RAYSOLUSDT TAKEUSDT HEMIUSDT

All 134 markets

1000BONKUSDT 1000PEPEUSDT 1000RATSUSDT 1000SHIBUSDT 4USDT AAVEUSDT ACEUSDT ADAUSDT AINUSDT AIOUSDT AKEUSDT APRUSDT APTUSDT ARBUSDT ARKUSDT ASTERUSDT ATOMUSDT AVAXUSDT BANKUSDT BCHUSDT BEAMXUSDT BEATUSDT BICOUSDT BLESSUSDT BLUAIUSDT BMTUSDT BNBUSDT BOMEUSDT BRUSDT BTCUSDT BTRUSDT BTWUSDT BULLAUSDT CAPUSDT COTIUSDT COWUSDT CYSUSDT DASHUSDT DEXEUSDT DOGEUSDT DOTUSDT EDENUSDT ENAUSDT ESPORTSUSDT ESPUSDT ETHUSDT EULUSDT EVAAUSDT FARTCOINUSDT FILUSDT FLOCKUSDT GIGGLEUSDT GPSUSDT GUSDT GWEIUSDT HBARUSDT HEIUSDT HEMIUSDT HFTUSDT HOMEUSDT HYPEUSDT IDOLUSDT INJUSDT IOSTUSDT JCTUSDT KAITOUSDT KOMAUSDT LABUSDT LAUSDT LINKUSDT LITUSDT LSKUSDT LTCUSDT MAGMAUSDT MARSCOINUSDT MMTUSDT MOVRUSDT MUBARAKUSDT NEARUSDT NILUSDT ONDOUSDT ONEUSDT ONGUSDT ONUSDT OPUSDT ORDIUSDT PARTIUSDT PAXGUSDT PENGUUSDT PHAUSDT POLUSDT PONSUSDT PORTALUSDT PROMUSDT PUMPUSDT QNTUSDT QUSDT RAYSOLUSDT RIFUSDT SAGAUSDT SEIUSDT SKRUSDT SKYAIUSDT SOLUSDT SOONUSDT SOPHUSDT SUIUSDT SYNUSDT TACUSDT TAKEUSDT TAOUSDT TIAUSDT TRUMPUSDT TRXUSDT TUSDT TUTUSDT UAIUSDT UBUSDT UNIUSDT USELESSUSDT VELVETUSDT VTHOUSDT VVVUSDT WIFUSDT WLDUSDT WLFIUSDT XLMUSDT XMRUSDT XPLUSDT XRPUSDT ZAMAUSDT ZECUSDT ZKCUSDT ZROUSDT

How results varied by market

Range across 119 markets with at least 30 measured: reached +5% within 24 hours in 0 of 56 on BNBUSDT (0%) to 42 of 47 on CAPUSDT (89%).

Every market pooled, without context

What happened in the next 24 hours?

This condition showed no clear difference for either move.

Other minutes are the same markets and dates without this condition. Each percentage is the share of measured minutes that reached that move from the starting price.

Price touched +5% or higher

When this held: 25.1% · 5,712 of 22,783 minutes
Other minutes: 24.3% · 4,705,959 of 19,360,423 minutes

Price touched −10% or lower

When this held: 8.9% · 2,028 of 22,783 minutes
Other minutes: 8.6% · 1,667,376 of 19,360,423 minutes

Price can touch both levels within the same 24 hours.

Every matching minute counts, so one long run adds many near-identical minutes. Busy markets weigh most.

Every condition is measured over the same 24 hours, whatever the length of its own reading. Other windows and move sizes shows shorter and longer windows.

This counts how often price touched a level, not what trading it would have paid.

Sample and counting

Rates use the 22,783 of 23,634 matches, pooled across 523 markets, with a full 24 hours after them. The 851 newer ones are left out, not counted as zero.

When it happened

About 762 a day, on 31 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Other windows and move sizes

Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move	1 hour	4 hours	24 hours	72 hours	7 days
Measured	23,193	23,193	22,783	21,331	18,317
Too recent	441	441	851	2,303	5,317
+0.1% or more	20,254 (87.3%)	21,699 (93.6%)	22,144 (97.2%)	20,964 (98.3%)	18,113 (98.9%)
+0.2% or more	17,777 (76.6%)	20,414 (88.0%)	21,609 (94.8%)	20,653 (96.8%)	17,899 (97.7%)
+0.5% or more	11,725 (50.6%)	16,824 (72.5%)	19,989 (87.7%)	19,673 (92.2%)	17,262 (94.2%)
+1% or more	5,945 (25.6%)	11,927 (51.4%)	17,480 (76.7%)	18,157 (85.1%)	16,241 (88.7%)
+2% or more	1,946 (8.4%)	6,021 (26.0%)	13,126 (57.6%)	15,322 (71.8%)	14,285 (78.0%)
+5% or more	341 (1.5%)	1,423 (6.1%)	5,712 (25.1%)	9,186 (43.1%)	9,829 (53.7%)
+10% or more	86 (0.4%)	392 (1.7%)	1,983 (8.7%)	4,211 (19.7%)	5,578 (30.5%)
+15% or more	40 (0.2%)	179 (0.8%)	1,054 (4.6%)	2,477 (11.6%)	3,631 (19.8%)
+20% or more	24 (0.1%)	97 (0.4%)	637 (2.8%)	1,621 (7.6%)	2,539 (13.9%)
+30% or more	9 (<0.1%)	44 (0.2%)	337 (1.5%)	916 (4.3%)	1,562 (8.5%)
+50% or more	2 (<0.1%)	15 (0.1%)	129 (0.6%)	447 (2.1%)	885 (4.8%)
+100% or more	0 (0.0%)	4 (<0.1%)	37 (0.2%)	141 (0.7%)	336 (1.8%)
+200% or more	0 (0.0%)	1 (<0.1%)	8 (<0.1%)	51 (0.2%)	118 (0.6%)
+400% or more	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	1 (<0.1%)	5 (<0.1%)	26 (0.1%)
−0.1% or lower	20,687 (89.2%)	22,075 (95.2%)	22,507 (98.8%)	21,216 (99.5%)	18,279 (99.8%)
−0.2% or lower	18,542 (79.9%)	20,960 (90.4%)	22,207 (97.5%)	21,105 (98.9%)	18,235 (99.6%)
−0.5% or lower	12,412 (53.5%)	17,612 (75.9%)	21,199 (93.0%)	20,758 (97.3%)	18,114 (98.9%)
−1% or lower	5,848 (25.2%)	12,767 (55.0%)	19,529 (85.7%)	20,092 (94.2%)	17,908 (97.8%)
−2% or lower	1,748 (7.5%)	6,263 (27.0%)	15,926 (69.9%)	18,637 (87.4%)	17,491 (95.5%)
−5% or lower	293 (1.3%)	1,196 (5.2%)	7,739 (34.0%)	14,383 (67.4%)	16,035 (87.5%)
−10% or lower	57 (0.2%)	227 (1.0%)	2,028 (8.9%)	7,139 (33.5%)	11,514 (62.9%)
−15% or lower	19 (0.1%)	93 (0.4%)	587 (2.6%)	2,325 (10.9%)	5,786 (31.6%)
−20% or lower	8 (<0.1%)	40 (0.2%)	275 (1.2%)	896 (4.2%)	2,408 (13.1%)
−30% or lower	4 (<0.1%)	14 (0.1%)	93 (0.4%)	277 (1.3%)	614 (3.4%)
−50% or lower	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	14 (0.1%)	61 (0.3%)	142 (0.8%)

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Distributions and daily counts

Upside reached · 24hThe most price moved up within 24 hours of each match: a high-water mark, never a close. 22,783 with a complete 24 hours.

Drawdown · 24hThe worst price moved against within 24 hours of each match: the deepest point, never the close. 22,783 with a complete 24 hours.

Price 30 minutes laterForward 30-minute returns across 22,860 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like. 774 too recent.

How to read a distribution

Matches per UTC day

5 Oct717 matches
6 Oct790 matches
7 Oct652 matches
8 Oct613 matches
9 Oct841 matches
10 Oct723 matches
11 Oct824 matches
12 Oct708 matches
13 Oct709 matches
14 Oct938 matches
15 Oct983 matches
16 Oct840 matches
17 Oct642 matches
18 Oct735 matches
19 Oct852 matches
20 Oct721 matches
21 Oct887 matches
22 Oct790 matches
23 Oct806 matches
24 Oct818 matches
25 Oct803 matches
26 Oct1,006 matches
27 Oct947 matches
28 Oct850 matches
29 Oct684 matches
30 Oct792 matches
31 Oct722 matches
1 Nov768 matches
2 Nov802 matches
3 Nov649 matches
4 Nov22 matches

How this is counted

Each rate counts only matches with the full window after them.
A minute where a reading was missing is left out and reported, not read as zero.
The condition picks the setup, never the outcome: a definition that filters on what followed is rejected (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE). Every match is measured, winners and losers alike.
"Other minutes" is every other eligible minute in the same markets and window. It is a reference, not a control group.
"Reached +5%" uses the highest price inside the window (maximum favourable excursion, MFE); "fell to −10%" uses the lowest (maximum adverse excursion, MAE). Neither is the close.
Checked 22,584,785 eligible market-minutes (eligible_symbol_buckets) on 523 markets, 2026-10-05 00:00 to 2026-11-04 00:00 UTC.
These counts pool every market, so markets that match often weigh more. Each market page compares that market with its own reference.
Live status is not connected yet, so this page is recorded history only.

What are MFE and MAE?

Reproducibility key (q#923b1b50)

The key that re-runs this exact count. Same key, same bytes; when the record grows, the dataset revision changes.

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: 3b8f2283c9064c2e0d6abf0666c694e5b4488d10bca5bbcd58c6aad98b9d5f9c
query hash: 923b1b50037a17fa01e2a47b4355018e72e7337eda75db54409f480ce0b0cdff
scanned window: 2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Re-run over the API

The exact search definition behind this count. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes; a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.candle_engulfing_1h",
        "in",
        [
          "bullish",
          "bearish"
        ]
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.candle_engulfing_1h","in",["bullish","bearish"]],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z","2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'