Condition · recorded history

Swept lows and closed back above (15m)

The last completed 15-minute candle swept prior lows and closed back above them: the "bullish" sweep and reclaim formation.

What is a base rate?

Recorded window: 9 Sept 2026 to 8 Oct 2026 (UTC). Counted 9 Oct 2026 at 08:28 UTC.

What happened in the next 24 hours?

This condition showed no clear difference for either move.

Other minutes are the same markets and dates without this condition. Each percentage is the share of measured minutes that reached that move from the starting price.

Price touched +5% or higher

When this held: 31.7% · 19,998 of 63,093 minutes
Other minutes: 33.0% · 6,813,709 of 20,656,454 minutes

Price touched −10% or lower

When this held: 6.4% · 4,012 of 63,093 minutes
Other minutes: 6.1% · 1,250,057 of 20,656,454 minutes

Price can touch both levels within the same 24 hours.

Sample and counting

Rates use the 63,093 of 65,559 matches, pooled across 524 markets, with a full 24 hours after them. The 2,466 newer ones are left out, not counted as zero.

Edit this test in Workbench

By market

Results vary by market. Compare a market before drawing a conclusion.

Most matches:RIFUSDT EULUSDT BRUSDT VELVETUSDT ESPUSDT HEIUSDT

All 130 markets

1000BONKUSDT 1000PEPEUSDT 1000RATSUSDT 1000SHIBUSDT 4USDT AAVEUSDT ACEUSDT ADAUSDT AINUSDT AIOUSDT AKEUSDT APRUSDT APTUSDT ARBUSDT ARKUSDT ASTERUSDT ATOMUSDT AVAXUSDT BANKUSDT BCHUSDT BEATUSDT BICOUSDT BLESSUSDT BLUAIUSDT BMTUSDT BNBUSDT BOMEUSDT BRUSDT BTCUSDT BTRUSDT BTWUSDT BULLAUSDT CAPUSDT COTIUSDT COWUSDT CYSUSDT DASHUSDT DEXEUSDT DOGEUSDT DOTUSDT EDENUSDT ENAUSDT ESPORTSUSDT ESPUSDT ETHUSDT EULUSDT FARTCOINUSDT FILUSDT FLOCKUSDT GIGGLEUSDT GPSUSDT GRVTUSDT GUSDT GWEIUSDT HBARUSDT HEIUSDT HEMIUSDT HFTUSDT HOMEUSDT HYPEUSDT INJUSDT IOSTUSDT KAITOUSDT KOMAUSDT LABUSDT LAUSDT LINKUSDT LITUSDT LSKUSDT LTCUSDT MAGMAUSDT MARSCOINUSDT MMTUSDT MOVRUSDT MUBARAKUSDT NEARUSDT NILUSDT ONDOUSDT ONEUSDT ONGUSDT ONUSDT OPUSDT ORDIUSDT PAXGUSDT PENGUUSDT PHAUSDT POLUSDT PONSUSDT PORTALUSDT PROMUSDT PUMPUSDT QNTUSDT QUSDT RAYSOLUSDT RIFUSDT SAGAUSDT SEIUSDT SKRUSDT SKYAIUSDT SOLUSDT SOONUSDT SOPHUSDT SUIUSDT SYNUSDT TACUSDT TAKEUSDT TAOUSDT TIAUSDT TRUMPUSDT TRXUSDT TUSDT TUTUSDT UAIUSDT UBUSDT UNIUSDT USELESSUSDT VELVETUSDT VTHOUSDT VVVUSDT WIFUSDT WLDUSDT WLFIUSDT XLMUSDT XMRUSDT XPLUSDT XRPUSDT ZAMAUSDT ZECUSDT ZKCUSDT ZROUSDT

How results varied by market

Range across 130 markets with at least 30 measured: reached +5% within 24 hours in 0 of 121 on PAXGUSDT (0%) to 101 of 121 on AKEUSDT (83%).

When it happened

About 2,115 a day, on 31 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Other windows and move sizes

Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move	1 hour	4 hours	24 hours	72 hours	7 days
Measured	64,802	64,802	63,093	57,787	49,228
Too recent	757	757	2,466	7,772	16,331
+0.1% or more	58,327 (90.0%)	61,837 (95.4%)	61,923 (98.1%)	57,356 (99.3%)	49,059 (99.7%)
+0.2% or more	52,632 (81.2%)	59,086 (91.2%)	60,864 (96.5%)	56,949 (98.5%)	48,897 (99.3%)
+0.5% or more	36,670 (56.6%)	50,210 (77.5%)	57,481 (91.1%)	55,649 (96.3%)	48,477 (98.5%)
+1% or more	18,117 (28.0%)	36,626 (56.5%)	51,601 (81.8%)	53,170 (92.0%)	47,578 (96.6%)
+2% or more	5,017 (7.7%)	18,639 (28.8%)	41,429 (65.7%)	48,057 (83.2%)	45,483 (92.4%)
+5% or more	649 (1.0%)	3,401 (5.2%)	19,998 (31.7%)	33,928 (58.7%)	38,596 (78.4%)
+10% or more	158 (0.2%)	804 (1.2%)	6,671 (10.6%)	18,495 (32.0%)	27,888 (56.7%)
+15% or more	60 (0.1%)	347 (0.5%)	3,112 (4.9%)	10,318 (17.9%)	19,617 (39.8%)
+20% or more	31 (<0.1%)	198 (0.3%)	1,787 (2.8%)	6,227 (10.8%)	13,868 (28.2%)
+30% or more	10 (<0.1%)	79 (0.1%)	801 (1.3%)	2,963 (5.1%)	7,566 (15.4%)
+50% or more	2 (<0.1%)	21 (<0.1%)	309 (0.5%)	1,185 (2.1%)	2,982 (6.1%)
+100% or more	0 (0.0%)	6 (<0.1%)	81 (0.1%)	329 (0.6%)	830 (1.7%)
+200% or more	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	16 (<0.1%)	101 (0.2%)	288 (0.6%)
+400% or more	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	3 (<0.1%)	26 (<0.1%)	80 (0.2%)
−0.1% or lower	56,985 (87.9%)	60,874 (93.9%)	61,787 (97.9%)	57,065 (98.8%)	48,766 (99.1%)
−0.2% or lower	50,906 (78.6%)	57,830 (89.2%)	60,602 (96.1%)	56,383 (97.6%)	48,352 (98.2%)
−0.5% or lower	34,963 (54.0%)	48,942 (75.5%)	56,973 (90.3%)	54,361 (94.1%)	47,122 (95.7%)
−1% or lower	18,249 (28.2%)	36,113 (55.7%)	51,080 (81.0%)	51,256 (88.7%)	45,267 (92.0%)
−2% or lower	5,785 (8.9%)	18,180 (28.1%)	39,994 (63.4%)	45,109 (78.1%)	41,600 (84.5%)
−5% or lower	872 (1.3%)	3,817 (5.9%)	17,933 (28.4%)	29,121 (50.4%)	30,709 (62.4%)
−10% or lower	158 (0.2%)	654 (1.0%)	4,012 (6.4%)	10,157 (17.6%)	13,419 (27.3%)
−15% or lower	57 (0.1%)	214 (0.3%)	1,375 (2.2%)	3,448 (6.0%)	5,389 (10.9%)
−20% or lower	25 (<0.1%)	96 (0.1%)	647 (1.0%)	1,580 (2.7%)	2,653 (5.4%)
−30% or lower	8 (<0.1%)	37 (0.1%)	195 (0.3%)	493 (0.9%)	921 (1.9%)
−50% or lower	0 (0.0%)	4 (<0.1%)	22 (<0.1%)	82 (0.1%)	175 (0.4%)

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Distributions and daily counts

Upside reached · 24hThe most price moved up within 24 hours of each match: a high-water mark, never a close. 63,093 with a complete 24 hours.

Drawdown · 24hThe worst price moved against within 24 hours of each match: the deepest point, never the close. 63,093 with a complete 24 hours.

Price 30 minutes laterForward 30-minute returns across 64,033 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like. 1,526 too recent.

How to read a distribution

Matches per UTC day

9 Sep2,356 matches
10 Sep2,608 matches
11 Sep2,043 matches
12 Sep2,036 matches
13 Sep2,070 matches
14 Sep2,252 matches
15 Sep2,982 matches
16 Sep2,327 matches
17 Sep1,539 matches
18 Sep1,050 matches
19 Sep2,055 matches
20 Sep2,060 matches
21 Sep1,507 matches
22 Sep1,854 matches
23 Sep2,397 matches
24 Sep1,632 matches
25 Sep2,119 matches
26 Sep2,227 matches
27 Sep2,354 matches
28 Sep3,023 matches
29 Sep2,224 matches
30 Sep2,418 matches
1 Oct2,100 matches
2 Oct2,094 matches
3 Oct1,893 matches
4 Oct2,200 matches
5 Oct2,014 matches
6 Oct2,527 matches
7 Oct2,920 matches
8 Oct2,642 matches
9 Oct36 matches

How this is counted

Each rate counts only matches with the full window after them.
A minute where a reading was missing is left out and reported, not read as zero.
The condition picks the setup, never the outcome: a definition that filters on what followed is rejected (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE). Every match is measured, winners and losers alike.
"Other minutes" is every other eligible minute in the same markets and window. It is a reference, not a control group.
"Reached +5%" uses the highest price inside the window (maximum favourable excursion, MFE); "fell to −10%" uses the lowest (maximum adverse excursion, MAE). Neither is the close.
Checked 22,583,444 eligible market-minutes (eligible_symbol_buckets) on 524 markets, 2026-09-09 00:00 to 2026-10-09 00:00 UTC.
These counts pool every market, so markets that match often weigh more. Each market page compares that market with its own reference.
Live status is not connected yet, so this page is recorded history only.

What are MFE and MAE?

Reproducibility key (q#fa73b531)

The key that re-runs this exact count. Same key, same bytes; when the record grows, the dataset revision changes.

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: 68c1e6c0bd8d4ac094dda9834df0b8096ce53f3bfe0bfddeee08e56a4c9a6b13
query hash: fa73b5316fea3d70ccd55e66ddefc478a8cea57e50110c6a98c1a13e384479c4
scanned window: 2026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Re-run over the API

The exact search definition behind this count. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes; a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m",
        "eq",
        "bullish"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m","eq","bullish"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z","2026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'