Condition · recorded history

Swept lows and closed back above (15m)

The last completed 15-minute candle swept prior lows and closed back above them: the "bullish" sweep and reclaim formation.

What is a base rate?

Recorded window: 4 Oct 2026 to 2 Nov 2026 (UTC). Counted 3 Nov 2026 at 08:30 UTC.

Read it in context

  1. On one market

    Each market page compares that market with its own minutes, not with every market at once.

  2. Test it, then plan it

    Narrow it to your markets and dates in the Workbench. A tested result leads to Plan a trade, which measures what trading it would have paid after costs.

By market

Results vary by market. Compare a market before drawing a conclusion.

All 135 markets
How results varied by market

Range across 135 markets with at least 30 measured: reached +5% within 24 hours in 0 of 136 on BNBUSDT (0%) to 96 of 111 on BTWUSDT (86%).

Every market pooled, without context

What happened in the next 24 hours?

This condition showed no clear difference for either move.

Other minutes are the same markets and dates without this condition. Each percentage is the share of measured minutes that reached that move from the starting price.

Price touched +5% or higher

When this held
24.2% · 16,461 of 68,090 minutes
Other minutes
24.4% · 4,674,256 of 19,169,212 minutes

Price touched −10% or lower

When this held
8.5% · 5,811 of 68,090 minutes
Other minutes
8.7% · 1,659,074 of 19,169,212 minutes

Price can touch both levels within the same 24 hours.

Every matching minute counts, so one long run adds many near-identical minutes. Busy markets weigh most.

Every condition is measured over the same 24 hours, whatever the length of its own reading. Other windows and move sizes shows shorter and longer windows.

This counts how often price touched a level, not what trading it would have paid.

Sample and counting

Rates use the 68,090 of 71,009 matches, pooled across 523 markets, with a full 24 hours after them. The 2,919 newer ones are left out, not counted as zero.

When it happened
Matches per UTC day, 2026-10-04 to 2026-11-03

About 2,291 a day, on 29 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Other windows and move sizes
Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move1 hour4 hours24 hours72 hours7 days
Measured70,29570,07368,09063,67254,693
Too recent7149362,9197,33716,316
+0.1% or more61,474 (87.5%)65,540 (93.5%)66,101 (97.1%)62,355 (97.9%)53,823 (98.4%)
+0.2% or more53,836 (76.6%)61,488 (87.7%)64,344 (94.5%)61,203 (96.1%)53,089 (97.1%)
+0.5% or more34,747 (49.4%)50,155 (71.6%)59,358 (87.2%)57,920 (91.0%)51,002 (93.3%)
+1% or more15,960 (22.7%)34,459 (49.2%)51,403 (75.5%)52,910 (83.1%)47,600 (87.0%)
+2% or more4,414 (6.3%)16,255 (23.2%)38,509 (56.6%)44,574 (70.0%)41,762 (76.4%)
+5% or more638 (0.9%)3,371 (4.8%)16,461 (24.2%)26,706 (41.9%)28,590 (52.3%)
+10% or more157 (0.2%)801 (1.1%)5,292 (7.8%)12,251 (19.2%)16,523 (30.2%)
+15% or more69 (0.1%)369 (0.5%)2,634 (3.9%)6,768 (10.6%)10,471 (19.1%)
+20% or more40 (0.1%)199 (0.3%)1,562 (2.3%)4,259 (6.7%)7,153 (13.1%)
+30% or more14 (<0.1%)92 (0.1%)775 (1.1%)2,263 (3.6%)4,139 (7.6%)
+50% or more1 (<0.1%)21 (<0.1%)283 (0.4%)1,072 (1.7%)2,247 (4.1%)
+100% or more0 (0.0%)3 (<0.1%)78 (0.1%)309 (0.5%)812 (1.5%)
+200% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)13 (<0.1%)97 (0.2%)274 (0.5%)
+400% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)3 (<0.1%)19 (<0.1%)77 (0.1%)
−0.1% or lower62,762 (89.3%)66,514 (94.9%)66,989 (98.4%)63,285 (99.4%)54,583 (99.8%)
−0.2% or lower56,384 (80.2%)63,561 (90.7%)66,082 (97.1%)62,984 (98.9%)54,490 (99.6%)
−0.5% or lower39,032 (55.5%)54,539 (77.8%)63,138 (92.7%)61,958 (97.3%)54,188 (99.1%)
−1% or lower19,506 (27.7%)40,798 (58.2%)57,902 (85.0%)60,169 (94.5%)53,632 (98.1%)
−2% or lower5,913 (8.4%)21,071 (30.1%)47,133 (69.2%)56,029 (88.0%)52,380 (95.8%)
−5% or lower713 (1.0%)4,377 (6.2%)23,057 (33.9%)43,817 (68.8%)47,549 (86.9%)
−10% or lower124 (0.2%)632 (0.9%)5,811 (8.5%)20,891 (32.8%)33,032 (60.4%)
−15% or lower42 (0.1%)184 (0.3%)1,538 (2.3%)6,632 (10.4%)16,267 (29.7%)
−20% or lower25 (<0.1%)92 (0.1%)680 (1.0%)2,336 (3.7%)6,552 (12.0%)
−30% or lower7 (<0.1%)29 (<0.1%)212 (0.3%)710 (1.1%)1,674 (3.1%)
−50% or lower0 (0.0%)2 (<0.1%)27 (<0.1%)137 (0.2%)360 (0.7%)

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Distributions and daily counts
Upside reached · 24hUpside reached (MFE, 24h)The most price moved up within 24 hours of each match: a high-water mark, never a close. 68,090 with a complete 24 hours.
Drawdown · 24hDrawdown (MAE, 24h)The worst price moved against within 24 hours of each match: the deepest point, never the close. 68,090 with a complete 24 hours.
Price 30 minutes laterForward 30-minute returnForward 30-minute returns across 69,621 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like. 1,388 too recent.

How to read a distribution

Matches per UTC day

  • 4 Oct2,202 matches
  • 5 Oct2,014 matches
  • 6 Oct2,527 matches
  • 7 Oct2,920 matches
  • 8 Oct2,642 matches
  • 9 Oct2,059 matches
  • 10 Oct1,991 matches
  • 11 Oct2,081 matches
  • 12 Oct3,419 matches
  • 13 Oct2,140 matches
  • 14 Oct2,985 matches
  • 15 Oct2,583 matches
  • 16 Oct2,722 matches
  • 17 Oct2,806 matches
  • 18 Oct3,081 matches
  • 19 Oct2,027 matches
  • 20 Oct1,923 matches
  • 21 Oct2,204 matches
  • 22 Oct3,752 matches
  • 23 Oct2,328 matches
  • 24 Oct2,058 matches
  • 25 Oct2,969 matches
  • 26 Oct2,367 matches
  • 27 Oct1,457 matches
  • 28 Oct2,258 matches
  • 29 Oct2,740 matches
  • 30 Oct2,123 matches
  • 31 Oct2,346 matches
  • 1 Nov2,285 matches
  • 2 Nov0 matches
  • 3 Nov0 matches
How this is counted
  • Each rate counts only matches with the full window after them.
  • A minute where a reading was missing is left out and reported, not read as zero.
  • The condition picks the setup, never the outcome: a definition that filters on what followed is rejected (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE). Every match is measured, winners and losers alike.
  • "Other minutes" is every other eligible minute in the same markets and window. It is a reference, not a control group.
  • "Reached +5%" uses the highest price inside the window (maximum favourable excursion, MFE); "fell to −10%" uses the lowest (maximum adverse excursion, MAE). Neither is the close.
  • Checked 21,721,948 eligible market-minutes (eligible_symbol_buckets) on 523 markets, 2026-10-04 00:00 to 2026-11-03 00:00 UTC.
  • These counts pool every market, so markets that match often weigh more. Each market page compares that market with its own reference.
  • Live status is not connected yet, so this page is recorded history only.

What are MFE and MAE?

Reproducibility key (q#52e40123)

The key that re-runs this exact count. Same key, same bytes; when the record grows, the dataset revision changes.

grammar
research_query.v2
normalization
archive_normalization.v1
feature library
feature_defs.v1
dataset revision
de0f2ef50baf530a363ce0c08cc21c068b14c0b5cf13829e8ff800ee4b3f829f
query hash
52e40123cb1f969f43cf382d84d2ed88d552d64dcb6bbc5c7df9505edccb6ad0
scanned window
2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Re-run over the API

The exact search definition behind this count. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes; a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m",
        "eq",
        "bullish"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}
curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m","eq","bullish"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

Past examples from the record, not a guarantee or a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.