Live condition · historical base rate

Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h)

The last completed one-hour candle swept prior lows and closed back above them: the "bullish" sweep and reclaim formation on the hourly.

What is a base rate?

Firing now (provisional, current bucket)

The live read is not yet enabled. This surface reports the historical base rates below; the firing-now list turns on when the live evaluator is connected.

What has happened when it held

Historically, when Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h) held (25,613 occurrences in the scanned window, 23,216 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 6,221 of 23,216 (26.8) and drew down 10%+ in 1,143 of 23,216 (4.9). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED · ALL 25,613 MATCHES

20,226 of 23,486 (86.1%) reached +0% or more within 1 hour · smallest move size with matches, picked for you

Pick a window and a move size: how often did a move at least that big follow?

WINDOWMOVE SIZE

🔒 Measured after every match, never by keeping winners. 23,486 of the matches have a complete 1 hour forward; the other 2,127 are too recent to know.

What are MFE and MAE?

Why 72 hours can show fewer than 1 hour: a match too recent for a complete 72 hours is left out of that count entirely, even if it already reached the level within 1 hour. The two counts cover different sets of matches.

When they happened - one bar per UTC day, all 25,613 matches
18930947MATCHES PER UTC DAY · MAX 1893 ON 2026-09-158334382686637061262120787651815435281012659134095338176735777574696112011027807589109083518931060314408-2408-3109-0709-142026-08-19 TO 2026-09-18 · 31 UTC DAYS · ZERO DAYS KEEP THEIR SLOT

About 826 a day, on 31 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Where the next 30 minutes landed - 22,243 measured, 3,370 too recent
≥ +0: 9416 OF 2224331641301113024803387161916812178159734122672138331429531≤−100−20−15−10−5−2−1−0.5−0.2−0.1<00++0.1+0.2+0.5+1+2+5+10+15+20≥+400

Forward 30-minute returns across 22,243 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like.

How to read a distribution
Upside reached · 24hUpside reached (MFE, 24h)The most price moved up within 24h of each occurrence: a high-water mark, never a close. 23,216 with a complete 24h.
Drawdown · 24hDrawdown (MAE, 24h)The worst price moved against within 24h of each occurrence: the deepest point, never the close. 23,216 with a complete 24h.

Versus baseline

Historically, when any eligible minute in the window (baseline) held (28,596,473 occurrences in the scanned window, 24,970,956 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 7,302,353 of 24,970,956 (29.2) and drew down 10%+ in 1,554,591 of 24,970,956 (6.2). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

By market

Markets where this condition occurred often enough in the window to carry its own statistically meaningful receipt:

Check our work: the key that re-runs this exact count (q#ee5ea2d7)
grammar
research_query.v2
normalization
archive_normalization.v1
feature library
feature_defs.v1
dataset revision
8904ef0442c6f623ec772df2b59d7baf1e49aaa808b5b11ac31546605549e3bb
query hash
ee5ea2d701eed01cabb49b3a48e6de90a00c1ad0cb787401fa146326c6dad2f4
scanned window
2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this yourself, over the API or from an AI agent

This is the exact search definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h",
        "eq",
        "bullish"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}
curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h","eq","bullish"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z","2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

How to read this

  • Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
  • Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
  • This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.