Condition · recorded history

Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h)

The last completed one-hour candle swept prior lows and closed back above them: the "bullish" sweep and reclaim formation on the hourly.

What is a base rate?

Recorded window: 11 Sept 2026 to 10 Oct 2026 (UTC). Counted 11 Oct 2026 at 07:57 UTC.

Read it in context

  1. On one market

    Each market page compares that market with its own minutes, not with every market at once.

  2. Test it, then plan it

    Narrow it to your markets and dates in the Workbench. A tested result leads to Plan a trade, which measures what trading it would have paid after costs.

By market

Results vary by market. Compare a market before drawing a conclusion.

All 130 markets
How results varied by market

Range across 107 markets with at least 30 measured: reached +5% within 24 hours in 0 of 40 on BTCUSDT (0%) to 28 of 30 on CAPUSDT (93%).

Every market pooled, without context

What happened in the next 24 hours?

This condition showed no clear difference for either move.

Other minutes are the same markets and dates without this condition. Each percentage is the share of measured minutes that reached that move from the starting price.

Price touched +5% or higher

When this held
33.4% · 6,090 of 18,235 minutes
Other minutes
33.3% · 6,866,067 of 20,590,223 minutes

Price touched −10% or lower

When this held
5.2% · 948 of 18,235 minutes
Other minutes
6.2% · 1,267,382 of 20,590,223 minutes

Price can touch both levels within the same 24 hours.

Every matching minute counts, so one long run adds many near-identical minutes. Busy markets weigh most.

Every condition is measured over the same 24 hours, whatever the length of its own reading. Other windows and move sizes shows shorter and longer windows.

This counts how often price touched a level, not what trading it would have paid.

Sample and counting

Rates use the 18,235 of 18,905 matches, pooled across 524 markets, with a full 24 hours after them. The 670 newer ones are left out, not counted as zero.

When it happened
Matches per UTC day, 2026-09-11 to 2026-10-11

About 610 a day, on 31 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Other windows and move sizes
Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move1 hour4 hours24 hours72 hours7 days
Measured18,51718,51718,23517,24714,029
Too recent3883886701,6584,876
+0.1% or more16,707 (90.2%)17,653 (95.3%)17,899 (98.2%)17,116 (99.2%)13,994 (99.8%)
+0.2% or more14,979 (80.9%)16,786 (90.7%)17,575 (96.4%)16,989 (98.5%)13,957 (99.5%)
+0.5% or more10,200 (55.1%)14,209 (76.7%)16,533 (90.7%)16,535 (95.9%)13,833 (98.6%)
+1% or more5,050 (27.3%)10,576 (57.1%)14,923 (81.8%)15,839 (91.8%)13,642 (97.2%)
+2% or more1,577 (8.5%)5,606 (30.3%)12,242 (67.1%)14,368 (83.3%)13,173 (93.9%)
+5% or more167 (0.9%)985 (5.3%)6,090 (33.4%)10,113 (58.6%)11,406 (81.3%)
+10% or more45 (0.2%)230 (1.2%)1,918 (10.5%)5,530 (32.1%)8,418 (60.0%)
+15% or more20 (0.1%)98 (0.5%)882 (4.8%)3,099 (18.0%)6,004 (42.8%)
+20% or more9 (<0.1%)53 (0.3%)505 (2.8%)1,851 (10.7%)4,245 (30.3%)
+30% or more4 (<0.1%)19 (0.1%)233 (1.3%)861 (5.0%)2,273 (16.2%)
+50% or more2 (<0.1%)9 (<0.1%)85 (0.5%)340 (2.0%)846 (6.0%)
+100% or more0 (0.0%)3 (<0.1%)28 (0.2%)119 (0.7%)239 (1.7%)
+200% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)4 (<0.1%)30 (0.2%)75 (0.5%)
+400% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)4 (<0.1%)21 (0.1%)
−0.1% or lower16,321 (88.1%)17,347 (93.7%)17,822 (97.7%)17,051 (98.9%)13,917 (99.2%)
−0.2% or lower14,564 (78.7%)16,427 (88.7%)17,513 (96.0%)16,896 (98.0%)13,826 (98.6%)
−0.5% or lower10,172 (54.9%)13,717 (74.1%)16,398 (89.9%)16,352 (94.8%)13,493 (96.2%)
−1% or lower5,166 (27.9%)9,995 (54.0%)14,650 (80.3%)15,517 (90.0%)12,973 (92.5%)
−2% or lower1,592 (8.6%)5,083 (27.5%)11,386 (62.4%)13,786 (79.9%)11,862 (84.6%)
−5% or lower245 (1.3%)1,028 (5.6%)5,114 (28.0%)9,182 (53.2%)8,604 (61.3%)
−10% or lower51 (0.3%)181 (1.0%)948 (5.2%)3,117 (18.1%)3,593 (25.6%)
−15% or lower13 (0.1%)60 (0.3%)300 (1.6%)1,040 (6.0%)1,497 (10.7%)
−20% or lower3 (<0.1%)22 (0.1%)132 (0.7%)448 (2.6%)712 (5.1%)
−30% or lower2 (<0.1%)5 (<0.1%)33 (0.2%)130 (0.8%)251 (1.8%)
−50% or lower1 (<0.1%)2 (<0.1%)6 (<0.1%)22 (0.1%)48 (0.3%)

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Distributions and daily counts
Upside reached · 24hUpside reached (MFE, 24h)The most price moved up within 24 hours of each match: a high-water mark, never a close. 18,235 with a complete 24 hours.
Drawdown · 24hDrawdown (MAE, 24h)The worst price moved against within 24 hours of each match: the deepest point, never the close. 18,235 with a complete 24 hours.
Price 30 minutes laterForward 30-minute returnForward 30-minute returns across 18,354 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like. 551 too recent.

How to read a distribution

Matches per UTC day

  • 11 Sep617 matches
  • 12 Sep424 matches
  • 13 Sep744 matches
  • 14 Sep547 matches
  • 15 Sep1,576 matches
  • 16 Sep828 matches
  • 17 Sep211 matches
  • 18 Sep164 matches
  • 19 Sep528 matches
  • 20 Sep709 matches
  • 21 Sep201 matches
  • 22 Sep633 matches
  • 23 Sep878 matches
  • 24 Sep364 matches
  • 25 Sep473 matches
  • 26 Sep415 matches
  • 27 Sep608 matches
  • 28 Sep1,250 matches
  • 29 Sep496 matches
  • 30 Sep780 matches
  • 1 Oct848 matches
  • 2 Oct580 matches
  • 3 Oct310 matches
  • 4 Oct643 matches
  • 5 Oct607 matches
  • 6 Oct714 matches
  • 7 Oct1,197 matches
  • 8 Oct794 matches
  • 9 Oct416 matches
  • 10 Oct336 matches
  • 11 Oct14 matches
How this is counted
  • Each rate counts only matches with the full window after them.
  • A minute where a reading was missing is left out and reported, not read as zero.
  • The condition picks the setup, never the outcome: a definition that filters on what followed is rejected (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE). Every match is measured, winners and losers alike.
  • "Other minutes" is every other eligible minute in the same markets and window. It is a reference, not a control group.
  • "Reached +5%" uses the highest price inside the window (maximum favourable excursion, MFE); "fell to −10%" uses the lowest (maximum adverse excursion, MAE). Neither is the close.
  • Checked 22,577,416 eligible market-minutes (eligible_symbol_buckets) on 524 markets, 2026-09-11 00:00 to 2026-10-11 00:00 UTC.
  • These counts pool every market, so markets that match often weigh more. Each market page compares that market with its own reference.
  • Live status is not connected yet, so this page is recorded history only.

What are MFE and MAE?

Reproducibility key (q#572d9953)

The key that re-runs this exact count. Same key, same bytes; when the record grows, the dataset revision changes.

grammar
research_query.v2
normalization
archive_normalization.v1
feature library
feature_defs.v1
dataset revision
f7a92e01cf2daf86b29782864e1f9e953d134529566eddfff796eb8308a94154
query hash
572d99532fa84603913f714638e1354eff2091d044d8a3aaa56b80b9d49e11fc
scanned window
2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Re-run over the API

The exact search definition behind this count. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes; a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h",
        "eq",
        "bullish"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}
curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h","eq","bullish"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z","2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

Past examples from the record, not a guarantee or a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.