ESPUSDT · historical base rate

Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h) on ESPUSDT

The last completed one-hour candle swept prior lows and closed back above them: the "bullish" sweep and reclaim formation on the hourly.

What has happened on ESPUSDT when it held

Historically, when Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h) on ESPUSDT held (53 occurrences in the scanned window, 48 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 19 of 48 (39.6) and drew down 10%+ in 8 of 48 (16.7). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED · ALL 53 MATCHES

15 of 52 (28.8%) reached +1% or more within 1 hour · smallest move size with matches, picked for you

Pick a window and a move size: how often did a move at least that big follow?

WINDOWMOVE SIZE

🔒 Measured after every match, never by keeping winners. 52 of the matches have a complete 1 hour forward; the other 1 are too recent to know.

What are MFE and MAE?

When they happened - one bar per UTC day, all 53 matches

About 1.7 a day, on 25 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Where the next 30 minutes landed - 51 measured, 2 too recent

Forward 30-minute returns across 51 matches: 57% of them finished down.

How to read a distribution

Upside reached · 24hThe most price moved up within 24h of each occurrence: a high-water mark, never a close. 48 with a complete 24h.

Drawdown · 24hThe worst price moved against within 24h of each occurrence: the deepest point, never the close. 48 with a complete 24h.

Versus baseline

Historically, when any eligible ESPUSDT minute in the window (baseline) held (37,621 occurrences in the scanned window, 36,414 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 11,182 of 36,414 (30.7) and drew down 10%+ in 3,921 of 36,414 (10.8). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

The full record

The same setup counted over every recorded day on ESPUSDT (2026-05-15 to 2026-08-02), growing daily.

Historically, when Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h) on ESPUSDT over the full record held (93 occurrences in the scanned window, 88 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 28 of 88 (31.8) and drew down 10%+ in 9 of 88 (10.2). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

WHAT FOLLOWED · ALL 93 MATCHES

20 of 92 (21.7%) reached +1% or more within 1 hour · smallest move size with matches, picked for you

Pick a window and a move size: how often did a move at least that big follow?

WINDOWMOVE SIZE

🔒 Measured after every match, never by keeping winners. 92 of the matches have a complete 1 hour forward; the other 1 are too recent to know.

What are MFE and MAE?

When they happened - one bar per UTC day, all 93 matches

About 1.2 a day, on 45 of 80 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Where the next 30 minutes landed - 89 measured, 4 too recent

Forward 30-minute returns across 89 matches: 57% of them finished down.

How to read a distribution

Check our work: the key that re-runs this exact count (q#43fa1c09)

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: 4873bd76720e8980808a8dade433845b262b5755e1d0e203e9811b57c83d8078
query hash: 43fa1c094b1f67008e5fa68316e608b2af00f24f29d4b676c58793f11cd4998c
scanned window: 2026-07-03T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this yourself, over the API or from an AI agent

This is the exact search definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h",
        "eq",
        "bullish"
      ],
      [
        "identity.symbol",
        "eq",
        "espusdt"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-07-03T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h","eq","bullish"],["identity.symbol","eq","espusdt"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-07-03T00:00:00.000Z","2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

How to read this

Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.

Everything measured on ESPUSDT right now: the ESPUSDT research page