ESPUSDT · recorded history

Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h) on ESPUSDT

The last completed one-hour candle swept prior lows and closed back above them: the "bullish" sweep and reclaim formation on the hourly.

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What happened in the next 24 hours?

Reaching +5% was more common than without it; falling to −10% was about as common as without it.

Other minutes are the same markets and dates without this condition. Each percentage is the share of measured minutes that reached that move from the starting price.

Price touched +5% or higher

When this held: 39.6% · 19 of 48 minutes
Other minutes: 30.7% · 11,182 of 36,414 minutes

Price touched −10% or lower

When this held: 16.7% · 8 of 48 minutes
Other minutes: 10.8% · 3,921 of 36,414 minutes

Price can touch both levels within the same 24 hours.

This counts how often price touched a level, not what trading it would have paid.

Sample and counting

Rates use the 48 of 53 matches with a full 24 hours after them. The 5 newer ones are left out, not counted as zero.

Every condition is measured over the same 24 hours, whatever the length of its own reading. Other windows and move sizes shows shorter and longer windows.

When it happened

About 1.7 a day, on 25 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Over the full record

Every recorded day on ESPUSDT, 2026-05-15 to 2026-08-02: reached +5% in 28 of 88 (31.8%); fell to −10% in 9 of 88 (10.2%), within 24 hours.

Other windows and move sizes

Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move	1 hour	4 hours	24 hours
Measured	52	51	48
Too recent	1	2	5
+1% or more	15 (28.8%)	26 (51.0%)	40 (83.3%)
+2% or more	2 (3.8%)	15 (29.4%)	32 (66.7%)
+5% or more	1 (1.9%)	7 (13.7%)	19 (39.6%)
+10% or more	1 (1.9%)	2 (3.9%)	9 (18.8%)
+15% or more	0 (0.0%)	1 (2.0%)	5 (10.4%)
+20% or more	0 (0.0%)	1 (2.0%)	4 (8.3%)
−1% or lower	13 (25.0%)	26 (51.0%)	37 (77.1%)
−2% or lower	5 (9.6%)	11 (21.6%)	24 (50.0%)
−5% or lower	1 (1.9%)	5 (9.8%)	10 (20.8%)
−10% or lower	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	8 (16.7%)
−15% or lower	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	6 (12.5%)
−20% or lower	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	2 (4.2%)

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Full record: other windows and move sizes

Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move	1 hour	4 hours	24 hours
Measured	92	91	88
Too recent	1	2	5
+1% or more	20 (21.7%)	48 (52.7%)	76 (86.4%)
+2% or more	2 (2.2%)	25 (27.5%)	58 (65.9%)
+5% or more	1 (1.1%)	8 (8.8%)	28 (31.8%)
+10% or more	1 (1.1%)	2 (2.2%)	13 (14.8%)
+15% or more	0 (0.0%)	1 (1.1%)	7 (8.0%)
+20% or more	0 (0.0%)	1 (1.1%)	4 (4.5%)
−1% or lower	26 (28.3%)	50 (54.9%)	74 (84.1%)
−2% or lower	7 (7.6%)	20 (22.0%)	50 (56.8%)
−5% or lower	1 (1.1%)	6 (6.6%)	21 (23.9%)
−10% or lower	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	9 (10.2%)
−15% or lower	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	6 (6.8%)
−20% or lower	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	2 (2.3%)

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Distributions and daily counts

Upside reached · 24hThe most price moved up within 24 hours of each match: a high-water mark, never a close. 48 with a complete 24 hours.

Drawdown · 24hThe worst price moved against within 24 hours of each match: the deepest point, never the close. 48 with a complete 24 hours.

Price 30 minutes laterForward 30-minute returns across 51 matches: 57% of them finished down. 2 too recent.

How to read a distribution

Matches per UTC day

3 Jul3 matches
4 Jul0 matches
5 Jul5 matches
6 Jul1 match
7 Jul2 matches
8 Jul2 matches
9 Jul1 match
10 Jul2 matches
11 Jul1 match
12 Jul1 match
13 Jul4 matches
14 Jul1 match
15 Jul0 matches
16 Jul1 match
17 Jul2 matches
18 Jul1 match
19 Jul1 match
20 Jul2 matches
21 Jul2 matches
22 Jul0 matches
23 Jul2 matches
24 Jul0 matches
25 Jul1 match
26 Jul2 matches
27 Jul2 matches
28 Jul6 matches
29 Jul3 matches
30 Jul1 match
31 Jul4 matches
1 Aug0 matches
2 Aug0 matches

How this is counted

Each rate counts only matches with the full window after them.
A minute where a reading was missing is left out and reported, not read as zero.
The condition picks the setup, never the outcome: a definition that filters on what followed is rejected (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE). Every match is measured, winners and losers alike.
"Other minutes" is every other eligible minute in the same market and window. It is a reference, not a control group.
"Reached +5%" uses the highest price inside the window (maximum favourable excursion, MFE); "fell to −10%" uses the lowest (maximum adverse excursion, MAE). Neither is the close.
Checked 41,761 eligible market-minutes (eligible_symbol_buckets) on ESPUSDT, 2026-07-03 00:00 to 2026-08-02 00:00 UTC.

What are MFE and MAE?

Reproducibility key (q#43fa1c09)

The key that re-runs this exact count. Same key, same bytes; when the record grows, the dataset revision changes.

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: 4873bd76720e8980808a8dade433845b262b5755e1d0e203e9811b57c83d8078
query hash: 43fa1c094b1f67008e5fa68316e608b2af00f24f29d4b676c58793f11cd4998c
scanned window: 2026-07-03T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Re-run over the API

The exact search definition behind this count. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes; a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h",
        "eq",
        "bullish"
      ],
      [
        "identity.symbol",
        "eq",
        "espusdt"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-07-03T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h","eq","bullish"],["identity.symbol","eq","espusdt"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-07-03T00:00:00.000Z","2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'