EULUSDT · historical base rate

Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h) on EULUSDT

The last completed one-hour candle swept prior lows and closed back above them: the "bullish" sweep and reclaim formation on the hourly.

What has happened on EULUSDT when it held

Historically, when Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h) on EULUSDT held (47 occurrences in the scanned window, 45 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 15 of 45 (33.3) and drew down 10%+ in 4 of 45 (8.9). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED - ALL 47 MATCHES, FROM THE PER-SCAN SUMMARY

1 OF 46 (2.2%) REACHED ≥ +5% WITHIN 1H

METRIC MFE_1H · CHIPS RE-READ THE SUMMARY, NEVER RE-QUERY

🔒 COMPUTED FORWARD, NEVER A FILTER · DENOMINATOR 46 = MATCHES WITH A COMPLETE 1H HORIZON (1 ABSENT: TOO CLOSE TO THE RECORD EDGE FOR 1H - NEVER TRUNCATED, NEVER AN IMPLIED ZERO)

OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 47 - ALL 47, NOT THE PAGE

About 1.5 a day, on 23 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 45 PRESENT · 2 ABSENT

Forward 30-minute returns across 45 matches: 58% of them finished down.

Upside reached · 24hThe most price moved up within 24h of each occurrence: a high-water mark, never a close. 45 with a complete 24h.

Drawdown · 24hThe worst price moved against within 24h of each occurrence: the deepest point, never the close. 45 with a complete 24h.

Versus baseline

Historically, when any eligible EULUSDT minute in the window (baseline) held (38,341 occurrences in the scanned window, 35,844 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 10,981 of 35,844 (30.6) and drew down 10%+ in 4,042 of 35,844 (11.3). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

The full record

The same setup counted over every recorded day on EULUSDT (2026-05-15 to 2026-08-01), growing daily.

Historically, when Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h) on EULUSDT over the full record held (83 occurrences in the scanned window, 81 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 23 of 81 (28.4) and drew down 10%+ in 4 of 81 (4.9). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

WHAT FOLLOWED - ALL 83 MATCHES, FROM THE PER-SCAN SUMMARY

1 OF 82 (1.2%) REACHED ≥ +5% WITHIN 1H

METRIC MFE_1H · CHIPS RE-READ THE SUMMARY, NEVER RE-QUERY

🔒 COMPUTED FORWARD, NEVER A FILTER · DENOMINATOR 82 = MATCHES WITH A COMPLETE 1H HORIZON (1 ABSENT: TOO CLOSE TO THE RECORD EDGE FOR 1H - NEVER TRUNCATED, NEVER AN IMPLIED ZERO)

OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 83 - ALL 83, NOT THE PAGE

About 1.1 a day, on 40 of 79 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 79 PRESENT · 4 ABSENT

Forward 30-minute returns across 79 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like.

Reproducibility key (q#8470ec81)

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: ce3b6253b51706f7a4c0e4a553e0dd67fcf76395dd1a8717eccda70dad520d60
query hash: 8470ec8109bdea78dfa7df291c53abd685c2331d699b8b593195462a65a58be4
scanned window: 2026-07-02T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this over the API or MCP

This is the exact research_query.v2 definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and diff the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h",
        "eq",
        "bullish"
      ],
      [
        "identity.symbol",
        "eq",
        "eulusdt"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-07-02T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h","eq","bullish"],["identity.symbol","eq","eulusdt"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-07-02T00:00:00.000Z","2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

How to read this

Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.

Everything measured on EULUSDT right now: the EULUSDT research page