ONUSDT · historical base rate

Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h) on ONUSDT

The last completed one-hour candle swept prior lows and closed back above them: the "bullish" sweep and reclaim formation on the hourly.

What has happened on ONUSDT when it held

Historically, when Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h) on ONUSDT held (22 occurrences in the scanned window, 21 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 19 of 21 (90.5) and drew down 10%+ in 6 of 21 (28.6). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED · ALL 22 MATCHES

19 of 22 (86.4%) reached +1% or more within 1 hour · smallest move size with matches, picked for you

Pick a window and a move size: how often did a move at least that big follow?

WINDOWMOVE SIZE

🔒 Measured after every match, never by keeping winners. 22 of the matches have a complete 1 hour forward.

What are MFE and MAE?

When they happened - one bar per UTC day, all 22 matches

About 0.7 a day, on 17 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Where the next 30 minutes landed - 22 measured, 0 too recent

Forward 30-minute returns across 22 matches: 68% of them finished up.

How to read a distribution

Upside reached · 24hThe most price moved up within 24h of each occurrence: a high-water mark, never a close. 21 with a complete 24h.

Drawdown · 24hThe worst price moved against within 24h of each occurrence: the deepest point, never the close. 21 with a complete 24h.

Versus baseline

Historically, when any eligible ONUSDT minute in the window (baseline) held (37,561 occurrences in the scanned window, 36,082 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 29,141 of 36,082 (80.8) and drew down 10%+ in 15,348 of 36,082 (42.5). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

The full record

The same setup counted over every recorded day on ONUSDT (2026-05-15 to 2026-08-12), growing daily.

Historically, when Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h) on ONUSDT over the full record held (66 occurrences in the scanned window, 64 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 34 of 64 (53.1) and drew down 10%+ in 9 of 64 (14.1). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

WHAT FOLLOWED · ALL 66 MATCHES

37 of 65 (56.9%) reached +1% or more within 1 hour · smallest move size with matches, picked for you

Pick a window and a move size: how often did a move at least that big follow?

WINDOWMOVE SIZE

🔒 Measured after every match, never by keeping winners. 65 of the matches have a complete 1 hour forward; the other 1 are too recent to know.

What are MFE and MAE?

When they happened - one bar per UTC day, all 66 matches

About 0.7 a day, on 43 of 90 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Where the next 30 minutes landed - 64 measured, 2 too recent

Forward 30-minute returns across 64 matches: 69% of them finished up.

How to read a distribution

Check our work: the key that re-runs this exact count (q#6bec977e)

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: b57b2b2ece93f8baa4f1e4a334c2d53714c5a4f0954b483c329c7ba4be4d34c5
query hash: 6bec977ec2be44a1df9309ae7727bd038d34eed9e46c2b33af8b6380312f16ee
scanned window: 2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this yourself, over the API or from an AI agent

This is the exact search definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h",
        "eq",
        "bullish"
      ],
      [
        "identity.symbol",
        "eq",
        "onusdt"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h","eq","bullish"],["identity.symbol","eq","onusdt"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z","2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

How to read this

Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.

Everything measured on ONUSDT right now: the ONUSDT research page