< Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h)ARBUSDT · historical base rate

Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h) on ARBUSDT

The last completed one-hour candle swept prior lows and closed back above them: the "bullish" sweep and reclaim formation on the hourly.

What has happened on ARBUSDT when it held

Historically, when Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h) on ARBUSDT held (48 occurrences in the scanned window, 46 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 5 of 46 (10.9) and drew down 10%+ in 0 of 46 (0.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED - ALL 48 MATCHES, FROM THE PER-SCAN SUMMARY

0 OF 48 (0.0%) REACHED ≥ +5% WITHIN 1H

METRIC MFE_1H · CHIPS RE-READ THE SUMMARY, NEVER RE-QUERY

🔒 COMPUTED FORWARD, NEVER A FILTER · DENOMINATOR 48 = MATCHES WITH A COMPLETE 1H HORIZON

OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 48 - ALL 48, NOT THE PAGE

About 1.5 a day, on 25 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 48 PRESENT · 0 ABSENT

Forward 30-minute returns across 48 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like.

Versus baseline

Historically, when any eligible ARBUSDT minute in the window (baseline) held (38,641 occurrences in the scanned window, 37,261 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 6,039 of 37,261 (16.2) and drew down 10%+ in 48 of 37,261 (0.1). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

The full record

The same setup counted over every recorded day on ARBUSDT (2026-05-15 to 2026-07-31), growing daily.

Historically, when Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h) on ARBUSDT over the full record held (83 occurrences in the scanned window, 81 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 16 of 81 (19.8) and drew down 10%+ in 2 of 81 (2.5). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

WHAT FOLLOWED - ALL 83 MATCHES, FROM THE PER-SCAN SUMMARY

1 OF 83 (1.2%) REACHED ≥ +5% WITHIN 1H

METRIC MFE_1H · CHIPS RE-READ THE SUMMARY, NEVER RE-QUERY

🔒 COMPUTED FORWARD, NEVER A FILTER · DENOMINATOR 83 = MATCHES WITH A COMPLETE 1H HORIZON

OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 83 - ALL 83, NOT THE PAGE

About 1.1 a day, on 44 of 78 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 83 PRESENT · 0 ABSENT

Forward 30-minute returns across 83 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like.

Reproducibility key (q#05e4794a)

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: 52a43a418a97fbe3a324f7c372fa4d53967163acaa0ed33c56b78ddd897331a4
query hash: 05e4794a209a2dd02164d36f5ea4c146c1909423d0af0729630f2d0b3a36da4b
scanned window: 2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this over the API or MCP

This is the exact research_query.v2 definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and diff the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h",
        "eq",
        "bullish"
      ],
      [
        "identity.symbol",
        "eq",
        "arbusdt"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h","eq","bullish"],["identity.symbol","eq","arbusdt"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

How to read this

Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.

Everything measured on ARBUSDT right now: the ARBUSDT research page