BCHUSDT · historical base rate

Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h) on BCHUSDT

The last completed one-hour candle swept prior lows and closed back above them: the "bullish" sweep and reclaim formation on the hourly.

What has happened on BCHUSDT when it held

Historically, when Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h) on BCHUSDT held (38 occurrences in the scanned window, 38 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 8 of 38 (21.1) and drew down 10%+ in 0 of 38 (0.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED - ALL 38 MATCHES, FROM THE PER-SCAN SUMMARY

0 OF 38 (0.0%) REACHED ≥ +5% WITHIN 1H

METRIC MFE_1H · CHIPS RE-READ THE SUMMARY, NEVER RE-QUERY

🔒 COMPUTED FORWARD, NEVER A FILTER · DENOMINATOR 38 = MATCHES WITH A COMPLETE 1H HORIZON

OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 38 - ALL 38, NOT THE PAGE

About 1.2 a day, on 18 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 38 PRESENT · 0 ABSENT

Forward 30-minute returns across 38 matches: 55% of them finished down.

Upside reached · 24hThe most price moved up within 24h of each occurrence: a high-water mark, never a close. 38 with a complete 24h.

Drawdown · 24hThe worst price moved against within 24h of each occurrence: the deepest point, never the close. 38 with a complete 24h.

Versus baseline

Historically, when any eligible BCHUSDT minute in the window (baseline) held (38,761 occurrences in the scanned window, 37,267 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 4,482 of 37,267 (12.0) and drew down 10%+ in 0 of 37,267 (0.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

The full record

The same setup counted over every recorded day on BCHUSDT (2026-05-15 to 2026-08-01), growing daily.

Historically, when Swept the lows and reclaimed (1h) on BCHUSDT over the full record held (77 occurrences in the scanned window, 77 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 20 of 77 (26.0) and drew down 10%+ in 0 of 77 (0.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

WHAT FOLLOWED - ALL 77 MATCHES, FROM THE PER-SCAN SUMMARY

0 OF 77 (0.0%) REACHED ≥ +5% WITHIN 1H

METRIC MFE_1H · CHIPS RE-READ THE SUMMARY, NEVER RE-QUERY

🔒 COMPUTED FORWARD, NEVER A FILTER · DENOMINATOR 77 = MATCHES WITH A COMPLETE 1H HORIZON

OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 77 - ALL 77, NOT THE PAGE

About 1 a day, on 38 of 79 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 77 PRESENT · 0 ABSENT

Forward 30-minute returns across 77 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like.

Reproducibility key (q#492e4ee1)

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: ce3b6253b51706f7a4c0e4a553e0dd67fcf76395dd1a8717eccda70dad520d60
query hash: 492e4ee177e85c7a4580b4d723aff69bf427d6467e02cdaa73324f2ca66520b9
scanned window: 2026-07-02T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this over the API or MCP

This is the exact research_query.v2 definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and diff the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h",
        "eq",
        "bullish"
      ],
      [
        "identity.symbol",
        "eq",
        "bchusdt"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-07-02T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h","eq","bullish"],["identity.symbol","eq","bchusdt"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-07-02T00:00:00.000Z","2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

How to read this

Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.

Everything measured on BCHUSDT right now: the BCHUSDT research page