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< All conditions
Condition · recorded history

Unusually large USD open-interest change

Absolute USD open-interest change over roughly five minutes has a rolling z-score/normal-CDF score of at least 0.90. Either direction qualifies; price affects USD OI. This is not an empirical top-decile count.

What is open interest?

Recorded window: 9 Sept 2026 to 8 Oct 2026 (UTC). Counted 10 Oct 2026 at 08:20 UTC.

What happened in the next 24 hours?

This condition showed no clear difference for either move.

Other minutes are the same markets and dates without this condition. Each percentage is the share of measured minutes that reached that move from the starting price.

Price touched +5% or higher

When this held
32.5% · 72,967 of 224,441 minutes
Other minutes
33.8% · 6,693,946 of 19,777,601 minutes

Price touched −10% or lower

When this held
7.2% · 16,146 of 224,441 minutes
Other minutes
6.1% · 1,215,901 of 19,777,601 minutes

Price can touch both levels within the same 24 hours.

Sample and counting

Rates use the 224,441 of 224,471 matches, pooled across 524 markets, with a full 24 hours after them. The 30 newer ones are left out, not counted as zero.

Edit this test in Workbench

By market

Results vary by market. Compare a market before drawing a conclusion.

Most matches:ENAUSDTHYPEUSDTXRPUSDTLITUSDTNEARUSDTPUMPUSDT
All 130 markets
1000BONKUSDT1000PEPEUSDT1000RATSUSDT1000SHIBUSDT4USDTAAVEUSDTACEUSDTADAUSDTAINUSDTAIOUSDTAKEUSDTAPRUSDTAPTUSDTARBUSDTARKUSDTASTERUSDTATOMUSDTAVAXUSDTBANKUSDTBCHUSDTBEATUSDTBICOUSDTBLESSUSDTBLUAIUSDTBMTUSDTBNBUSDTBOMEUSDTBRUSDTBTCUSDTBTRUSDTBTWUSDTBULLAUSDTCAPUSDTCOTIUSDTCOWUSDTCYSUSDTDASHUSDTDEXEUSDTDOGEUSDTDOTUSDTEDENUSDTENAUSDTESPORTSUSDTESPUSDTETHUSDTEULUSDTFARTCOINUSDTFILUSDTFLOCKUSDTGIGGLEUSDTGPSUSDTGRVTUSDTGUSDTGWEIUSDTHBARUSDTHEIUSDTHEMIUSDTHFTUSDTHOMEUSDTHYPEUSDTINJUSDTIOSTUSDTKAITOUSDTKOMAUSDTLABUSDTLAUSDTLINKUSDTLITUSDTLSKUSDTLTCUSDTMAGMAUSDTMARSCOINUSDTMMTUSDTMOVRUSDTMUBARAKUSDTNEARUSDTNILUSDTONDOUSDTONEUSDTONGUSDTONUSDTOPUSDTORDIUSDTPAXGUSDTPENGUUSDTPHAUSDTPOLUSDTPONSUSDTPORTALUSDTPROMUSDTPUMPUSDTQNTUSDTQUSDTRAYSOLUSDTRIFUSDTSAGAUSDTSEIUSDTSKRUSDTSKYAIUSDTSOLUSDTSOONUSDTSOPHUSDTSUIUSDTSYNUSDTTACUSDTTAKEUSDTTAOUSDTTIAUSDTTRUMPUSDTTRXUSDTTUSDTTUTUSDTUAIUSDTUBUSDTUNIUSDTUSELESSUSDTVELVETUSDTVTHOUSDTVVVUSDTWIFUSDTWLDUSDTWLFIUSDTXLMUSDTXMRUSDTXPLUSDTXRPUSDTZAMAUSDTZECUSDTZKCUSDTZROUSDT
How results varied by market

Range across 130 markets with at least 30 measured: reached +5% within 24 hours in 0 of 387 on PAXGUSDT (0%) to 375 of 456 on CYSUSDT (82%).

When it happened
Matches per UTC day, 2026-09-09 to 2026-10-09

About 7,241 a day, on 30 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Other windows and move sizes
Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move1 hour4 hours24 hours72 hours7 days
Measured224,441224,441224,441212,155182,473
Too recent30303012,31641,998
+0.1% or more200,157 (89.2%)212,417 (94.6%)219,839 (97.9%)209,933 (99.0%)181,718 (99.6%)
+0.2% or more179,806 (80.1%)202,227 (90.1%)216,004 (96.2%)208,083 (98.1%)181,096 (99.2%)
+0.5% or more125,540 (55.9%)172,256 (76.7%)204,088 (90.9%)202,186 (95.3%)179,078 (98.1%)
+1% or more66,734 (29.7%)127,633 (56.9%)184,437 (82.2%)192,158 (90.6%)175,305 (96.1%)
+2% or more22,389 (10.0%)67,788 (30.2%)148,387 (66.1%)172,431 (81.3%)167,212 (91.6%)
+5% or more3,658 (1.6%)15,066 (6.7%)72,967 (32.5%)120,895 (57.0%)140,970 (77.3%)
+10% or more913 (0.4%)4,003 (1.8%)25,570 (11.4%)66,317 (31.3%)101,430 (55.6%)
+15% or more375 (0.2%)1,787 (0.8%)12,511 (5.6%)37,783 (17.8%)71,645 (39.3%)
+20% or more186 (0.1%)985 (0.4%)7,209 (3.2%)23,334 (11.0%)50,640 (27.8%)
+30% or more70 (<0.1%)439 (0.2%)3,321 (1.5%)11,188 (5.3%)27,478 (15.1%)
+50% or more19 (<0.1%)121 (0.1%)1,365 (0.6%)4,618 (2.2%)11,058 (6.1%)
+100% or more3 (<0.1%)21 (<0.1%)362 (0.2%)1,298 (0.6%)3,141 (1.7%)
+200% or more2 (<0.1%)8 (<0.1%)71 (<0.1%)380 (0.2%)1,139 (0.6%)
+400% or more0 (0.0%)2 (<0.1%)28 (<0.1%)99 (<0.1%)308 (0.2%)
−0.1% or lower201,212 (89.7%)213,082 (94.9%)220,047 (98.0%)209,601 (98.8%)180,817 (99.1%)
−0.2% or lower181,173 (80.7%)203,098 (90.5%)216,144 (96.3%)207,398 (97.8%)179,341 (98.3%)
−0.5% or lower126,077 (56.2%)172,439 (76.8%)203,657 (90.7%)200,163 (94.3%)174,624 (95.7%)
−1% or lower66,252 (29.5%)127,411 (56.8%)183,351 (81.7%)189,078 (89.1%)167,410 (91.7%)
−2% or lower21,842 (9.7%)66,027 (29.4%)145,085 (64.6%)168,033 (79.2%)154,396 (84.6%)
−5% or lower3,412 (1.5%)13,225 (5.9%)67,127 (29.9%)111,576 (52.6%)116,666 (63.9%)
−10% or lower652 (0.3%)2,505 (1.1%)16,146 (7.2%)43,484 (20.5%)55,527 (30.4%)
−15% or lower234 (0.1%)855 (0.4%)5,169 (2.3%)14,656 (6.9%)22,269 (12.2%)
−20% or lower108 (<0.1%)366 (0.2%)2,426 (1.1%)6,202 (2.9%)10,464 (5.7%)
−30% or lower34 (<0.1%)133 (0.1%)725 (0.3%)1,827 (0.9%)3,500 (1.9%)
−50% or lower4 (<0.1%)17 (<0.1%)96 (<0.1%)274 (0.1%)665 (0.4%)

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Distributions and daily counts
Upside reached · 24hUpside reached (MFE, 24h)The most price moved up within 24 hours of each match: a high-water mark, never a close. 224,441 with a complete 24 hours.
Drawdown · 24hDrawdown (MAE, 24h)The worst price moved against within 24 hours of each match: the deepest point, never the close. 224,441 with a complete 24 hours.
Price 30 minutes laterForward 30-minute returnForward 30-minute returns across 222,946 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like. 1,525 too recent.

How to read a distribution

Matches per UTC day

  • 9 Sep7,738 matches
  • 10 Sep6,490 matches
  • 11 Sep7,296 matches
  • 12 Sep6,976 matches
  • 13 Sep7,581 matches
  • 14 Sep7,643 matches
  • 15 Sep7,485 matches
  • 16 Sep7,469 matches
  • 17 Sep6,917 matches
  • 18 Sep7,509 matches
  • 19 Sep7,545 matches
  • 20 Sep7,213 matches
  • 21 Sep7,871 matches
  • 22 Sep7,658 matches
  • 23 Sep6,817 matches
  • 24 Sep7,365 matches
  • 25 Sep7,671 matches
  • 26 Sep7,461 matches
  • 27 Sep7,636 matches
  • 28 Sep7,881 matches
  • 29 Sep8,058 matches
  • 30 Sep8,276 matches
  • 1 Oct7,790 matches
  • 2 Oct7,730 matches
  • 3 Oct7,043 matches
  • 4 Oct7,627 matches
  • 5 Oct7,711 matches
  • 6 Oct7,778 matches
  • 7 Oct6,514 matches
  • 8 Oct7,722 matches
  • 9 Oct0 matches
How this is counted
  • Each rate counts only matches with the full window after them.
  • A minute where a reading was missing is left out and reported, not read as zero.
  • The condition picks the setup, never the outcome: a definition that filters on what followed is rejected (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE). Every match is measured, winners and losers alike.
  • "Other minutes" is every other eligible minute in the same markets and window. It is a reference, not a control group.
  • "Reached +5%" uses the highest price inside the window (maximum favourable excursion, MFE); "fell to −10%" uses the lowest (maximum adverse excursion, MAE). Neither is the close.
  • Checked 22,568,221 eligible market-minutes (eligible_symbol_buckets) on 524 markets, 2026-09-09 00:00 to 2026-10-09 00:00 UTC.
  • These counts pool every market, so markets that match often weigh more. Each market page compares that market with its own reference.
  • Live status is not connected yet, so this page is recorded history only.

What are MFE and MAE?

Reproducibility key (q#ed006cef)

The key that re-runs this exact count. Same key, same bytes; when the record grows, the dataset revision changes.

grammar
research_query.v2
normalization
archive_normalization.v1
feature library
feature_defs.v1
dataset revision
4fe988ef80bd9fb9da9e9044e933b4dbdc8e31875b6a0ceb515b5d59bf7f24b6
query hash
ed006cefc7692febd04de1549c1b600878716add6811d79f07445e2d33190fbc
scanned window
2026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Re-run over the API

The exact search definition behind this count. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes; a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.oi_velocity_pctrank",
        "gte",
        0.9
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}
curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.oi_velocity_pctrank","gte",0.9],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z","2026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

Past examples from the record, not a guarantee or a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.