Condition · recorded history

Order book heavily ask-sided

At the best quoted prices, ask quantity was at least three quarters of the combined bid and ask quantity.

What is book imbalance?

Recorded window: 5 Oct 2026 to 3 Nov 2026 (UTC). Counted 4 Nov 2026 at 08:32 UTC.

Read it in context

  1. On one market

    Each market page compares that market with its own minutes, not with every market at once.

  2. Test it, then plan it

    Narrow it to your markets and dates in the Workbench. A tested result leads to Plan a trade, which measures what trading it would have paid after costs.

By market

Results vary by market. Compare a market before drawing a conclusion.

All 135 markets
How results varied by market

Range across 135 markets with at least 30 measured: reached +5% within 24 hours in 0 of 639 on BNBUSDT (0%) to 528 of 640 on CYSUSDT (83%).

Every market pooled, without context

What happened in the next 24 hours?

This condition showed no clear difference for either move.

Other minutes are the same markets and dates without this condition. Each percentage is the share of measured minutes that reached that move from the starting price.

Price touched +5% or higher

When this held
23.7% · 80,692 of 340,247 minutes
Other minutes
24.4% · 3,779,459 of 15,516,263 minutes

Price touched −10% or lower

When this held
8.6% · 29,157 of 340,247 minutes
Other minutes
8.6% · 1,326,656 of 15,516,263 minutes

Price can touch both levels within the same 24 hours.

Every matching minute counts, so one long run adds many near-identical minutes. Busy markets weigh most.

Every condition is measured over the same 24 hours, whatever the length of its own reading. Other windows and move sizes shows shorter and longer windows.

This counts how often price touched a level, not what trading it would have paid.

Sample and counting

Rates use the 340,247 of 349,655 matches, pooled across 523 markets, with a full 24 hours after them. The 9,408 newer ones are left out, not counted as zero.

When it happened
Matches per UTC day, 2026-10-05 to 2026-11-04

About 11,279 a day, on 31 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Other windows and move sizes
Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move1 hour4 hours24 hours72 hours7 days
Measured347,704347,704340,247317,281271,271
Too recent1,9511,9519,40832,37478,384
+0.1% or more299,000 (86.0%)322,560 (92.8%)329,424 (96.8%)310,658 (97.9%)267,246 (98.5%)
+0.2% or more261,523 (75.2%)302,363 (87.0%)320,795 (94.3%)305,356 (96.2%)264,008 (97.3%)
+0.5% or more168,981 (48.6%)246,139 (70.8%)295,367 (86.8%)289,541 (91.3%)254,149 (93.7%)
+1% or more81,625 (23.5%)170,329 (49.0%)255,182 (75.0%)264,876 (83.5%)238,517 (87.9%)
+2% or more25,334 (7.3%)83,677 (24.1%)189,691 (55.8%)222,095 (70.0%)209,666 (77.3%)
+5% or more4,062 (1.2%)18,380 (5.3%)80,692 (23.7%)131,396 (41.4%)142,346 (52.5%)
+10% or more1,013 (0.3%)4,785 (1.4%)27,225 (8.0%)60,070 (18.9%)80,371 (29.6%)
+15% or more406 (0.1%)2,230 (0.6%)14,252 (4.2%)34,248 (10.8%)51,552 (19.0%)
+20% or more211 (0.1%)1,241 (0.4%)8,525 (2.5%)22,052 (7.0%)35,722 (13.2%)
+30% or more85 (<0.1%)542 (0.2%)4,427 (1.3%)11,947 (3.8%)21,192 (7.8%)
+50% or more23 (<0.1%)198 (0.1%)1,726 (0.5%)5,769 (1.8%)11,572 (4.3%)
+100% or more4 (<0.1%)32 (<0.1%)469 (0.1%)1,790 (0.6%)4,301 (1.6%)
+200% or more2 (<0.1%)9 (<0.1%)104 (<0.1%)600 (0.2%)1,576 (0.6%)
+400% or more0 (0.0%)2 (<0.1%)23 (<0.1%)106 (<0.1%)414 (0.2%)
−0.1% or lower311,217 (89.5%)330,734 (95.1%)335,475 (98.6%)315,460 (99.4%)270,734 (99.8%)
−0.2% or lower276,461 (79.5%)314,294 (90.4%)330,988 (97.3%)313,797 (98.9%)270,283 (99.6%)
−0.5% or lower183,763 (52.9%)265,427 (76.3%)317,156 (93.2%)308,810 (97.3%)268,887 (99.1%)
−1% or lower87,704 (25.2%)192,632 (55.4%)292,354 (85.9%)299,544 (94.4%)266,312 (98.2%)
−2% or lower25,969 (7.5%)95,545 (27.5%)238,904 (70.2%)278,525 (87.8%)260,322 (96.0%)
−5% or lower3,971 (1.1%)18,436 (5.3%)114,416 (33.6%)216,553 (68.3%)238,277 (87.8%)
−10% or lower697 (0.2%)3,214 (0.9%)29,157 (8.6%)106,333 (33.5%)170,241 (62.8%)
−15% or lower252 (0.1%)1,101 (0.3%)8,501 (2.5%)34,873 (11.0%)84,391 (31.1%)
−20% or lower105 (<0.1%)515 (0.1%)3,719 (1.1%)12,394 (3.9%)34,368 (12.7%)
−30% or lower31 (<0.1%)164 (<0.1%)1,256 (0.4%)3,860 (1.2%)8,642 (3.2%)
−50% or lower3 (<0.1%)19 (<0.1%)159 (<0.1%)745 (0.2%)2,014 (0.7%)

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Distributions and daily counts
Upside reached · 24hUpside reached (MFE, 24h)The most price moved up within 24 hours of each match: a high-water mark, never a close. 340,247 with a complete 24 hours.
Drawdown · 24hDrawdown (MAE, 24h)The worst price moved against within 24 hours of each match: the deepest point, never the close. 340,247 with a complete 24 hours.
Price 30 minutes laterForward 30-minute returnForward 30-minute returns across 345,109 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like. 4,546 too recent.

How to read a distribution

Matches per UTC day

  • 5 Oct11,899 matches
  • 6 Oct11,693 matches
  • 7 Oct11,696 matches
  • 8 Oct11,690 matches
  • 9 Oct11,718 matches
  • 10 Oct11,615 matches
  • 11 Oct11,630 matches
  • 12 Oct11,740 matches
  • 13 Oct11,693 matches
  • 14 Oct11,713 matches
  • 15 Oct11,701 matches
  • 16 Oct11,719 matches
  • 17 Oct11,657 matches
  • 18 Oct11,688 matches
  • 19 Oct11,688 matches
  • 20 Oct11,675 matches
  • 21 Oct11,652 matches
  • 22 Oct11,679 matches
  • 23 Oct11,652 matches
  • 24 Oct11,581 matches
  • 25 Oct11,633 matches
  • 26 Oct11,644 matches
  • 27 Oct11,616 matches
  • 28 Oct11,593 matches
  • 29 Oct11,563 matches
  • 30 Oct11,589 matches
  • 31 Oct11,547 matches
  • 1 Nov11,469 matches
  • 2 Nov11,612 matches
  • 3 Nov11,600 matches
  • 4 Nov10 matches
How this is counted
  • Each rate counts only matches with the full window after them.
  • A minute where a reading was missing is left out and reported, not read as zero.
  • The condition picks the setup, never the outcome: a definition that filters on what followed is rejected (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE). Every match is measured, winners and losers alike.
  • "Other minutes" is every other eligible minute in the same markets and window. It is a reference, not a control group.
  • "Reached +5%" uses the highest price inside the window (maximum favourable excursion, MFE); "fell to −10%" uses the lowest (maximum adverse excursion, MAE). Neither is the close.
  • Checked 22,388,668 eligible market-minutes (eligible_symbol_buckets) on 523 markets, 2026-10-05 00:00 to 2026-11-04 00:00 UTC.
  • These counts pool every market, so markets that match often weigh more. Each market page compares that market with its own reference.
  • Live status is not connected yet, so this page is recorded history only.

What are MFE and MAE?

Reproducibility key (q#ffad3cbc)

The key that re-runs this exact count. Same key, same bytes; when the record grows, the dataset revision changes.

grammar
research_query.v2
normalization
archive_normalization.v1
feature library
feature_defs.v1
dataset revision
619a265b9f788739431c3f7b66d905488aef02a089732759d76b90b79dc197d1
query hash
ffad3cbcf64c62434d90ce9f73d501aca6967c86e6afb38838713e51d9f67241
scanned window
2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Re-run over the API

The exact search definition behind this count. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes; a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.book_imbalance",
        "lte",
        -0.5
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}
curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.book_imbalance","lte",-0.5],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z","2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

Past examples from the record, not a guarantee or a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.