Condition · recorded history

Order book heavily ask-sided

At the best quoted prices, ask quantity was at least three quarters of the combined bid and ask quantity.

Recorded window: 8 Sept 2026 to 7 Oct 2026 (UTC). Counted 8 Oct 2026 at 08:39 UTC.

What happened in the next 24 hours?

This condition showed no clear difference for either move.

Other minutes are the same markets and dates without this condition. Each percentage is the share of measured minutes that reached that move from the starting price.

Price touched +5% or higher

When this held: 32.1% · 109,806 of 341,996 minutes
Other minutes: 33.8% · 5,480,976 of 16,216,318 minutes

Price touched −10% or lower

When this held: 6.3% · 21,515 of 341,996 minutes
Other minutes: 6.1% · 991,552 of 16,216,318 minutes

Price can touch both levels within the same 24 hours.

Sample and counting

Rates use the 341,996 of 351,540 matches, pooled across 524 markets, with a full 24 hours after them. The 9,544 newer ones are left out, not counted as zero.

Edit this test in Workbench

By market

Results vary by market. Compare a market before drawing a conclusion.

Most matches:1000PEPEUSDT APTUSDT USELESSUSDT AVAXUSDT BNBUSDT LITUSDT

All 130 markets

1000BONKUSDT 1000PEPEUSDT 1000RATSUSDT 1000SHIBUSDT 4USDT AAVEUSDT ACEUSDT ADAUSDT AINUSDT AIOUSDT AKEUSDT APRUSDT APTUSDT ARBUSDT ARKUSDT ASTERUSDT ATOMUSDT AVAXUSDT BANKUSDT BCHUSDT BEATUSDT BICOUSDT BLESSUSDT BLUAIUSDT BMTUSDT BNBUSDT BOMEUSDT BRUSDT BTCUSDT BTRUSDT BTWUSDT BULLAUSDT CAPUSDT COTIUSDT COWUSDT CYSUSDT DASHUSDT DEXEUSDT DOGEUSDT DOTUSDT EDENUSDT ENAUSDT ESPORTSUSDT ESPUSDT ETHUSDT EULUSDT FARTCOINUSDT FILUSDT FLOCKUSDT GIGGLEUSDT GPSUSDT GRVTUSDT GUSDT GWEIUSDT HBARUSDT HEIUSDT HEMIUSDT HFTUSDT HOMEUSDT HYPEUSDT INJUSDT IOSTUSDT KAITOUSDT KOMAUSDT LABUSDT LAUSDT LINKUSDT LITUSDT LSKUSDT LTCUSDT MAGMAUSDT MARSCOINUSDT MMTUSDT MOVRUSDT MUBARAKUSDT NEARUSDT NILUSDT ONDOUSDT ONEUSDT ONGUSDT ONUSDT OPUSDT ORDIUSDT PAXGUSDT PENGUUSDT PHAUSDT POLUSDT PONSUSDT PORTALUSDT PROMUSDT PUMPUSDT QNTUSDT QUSDT RAYSOLUSDT RIFUSDT SAGAUSDT SEIUSDT SKRUSDT SKYAIUSDT SOLUSDT SOONUSDT SOPHUSDT SUIUSDT SYNUSDT TACUSDT TAKEUSDT TAOUSDT TIAUSDT TRUMPUSDT TRXUSDT TUSDT TUTUSDT UAIUSDT UBUSDT UNIUSDT USELESSUSDT VELVETUSDT VTHOUSDT VVVUSDT WIFUSDT WLDUSDT WLFIUSDT XLMUSDT XMRUSDT XPLUSDT XRPUSDT ZAMAUSDT ZECUSDT ZKCUSDT ZROUSDT

How results varied by market

Range across 130 markets with at least 30 measured: reached +5% within 24 hours in 0 of 605 on PAXGUSDT (0%) to 528 of 640 on CYSUSDT (83%).

When it happened

About 11,340 a day, on 31 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Other windows and move sizes

Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move	1 hour	4 hours	24 hours	72 hours	7 days
Measured	349,466	349,466	341,996	318,836	272,182
Too recent	2,074	2,074	9,544	32,704	79,358
+0.1% or more	305,672 (87.5%)	328,901 (94.1%)	334,535 (97.8%)	315,850 (99.1%)	270,953 (99.5%)
+0.2% or more	271,958 (77.8%)	312,648 (89.5%)	328,582 (96.1%)	313,518 (98.3%)	269,968 (99.2%)
+0.5% or more	183,006 (52.4%)	263,739 (75.5%)	310,402 (90.8%)	306,044 (96.0%)	266,732 (98.0%)
+1% or more	92,118 (26.4%)	191,818 (54.9%)	280,453 (82.0%)	292,677 (91.8%)	260,973 (95.9%)
+2% or more	29,430 (8.4%)	98,891 (28.3%)	225,603 (66.0%)	264,197 (82.9%)	248,321 (91.2%)
+5% or more	4,549 (1.3%)	21,055 (6.0%)	109,806 (32.1%)	186,532 (58.5%)	210,460 (77.3%)
+10% or more	1,076 (0.3%)	5,464 (1.6%)	38,155 (11.2%)	102,459 (32.1%)	153,148 (56.3%)
+15% or more	434 (0.1%)	2,446 (0.7%)	18,548 (5.4%)	58,042 (18.2%)	108,419 (39.8%)
+20% or more	216 (0.1%)	1,339 (0.4%)	10,607 (3.1%)	35,609 (11.2%)	76,754 (28.2%)
+30% or more	76 (<0.1%)	580 (0.2%)	4,927 (1.4%)	16,816 (5.3%)	41,512 (15.3%)
+50% or more	18 (<0.1%)	165 (<0.1%)	1,980 (0.6%)	6,927 (2.2%)	16,849 (6.2%)
+100% or more	4 (<0.1%)	33 (<0.1%)	511 (0.1%)	1,966 (0.6%)	4,861 (1.8%)
+200% or more	2 (<0.1%)	9 (<0.1%)	99 (<0.1%)	601 (0.2%)	1,730 (0.6%)
+400% or more	0 (0.0%)	2 (<0.1%)	31 (<0.1%)	166 (0.1%)	502 (0.2%)
−0.1% or lower	312,582 (89.4%)	332,022 (95.0%)	335,410 (98.1%)	314,864 (98.8%)	269,627 (99.1%)
−0.2% or lower	277,450 (79.4%)	315,031 (90.1%)	329,084 (96.2%)	311,119 (97.6%)	267,255 (98.2%)
−0.5% or lower	187,865 (53.8%)	265,742 (76.0%)	310,014 (90.6%)	300,155 (94.1%)	260,328 (95.6%)
−1% or lower	95,087 (27.2%)	193,506 (55.4%)	277,955 (81.3%)	282,294 (88.5%)	249,292 (91.6%)
−2% or lower	29,083 (8.3%)	96,672 (27.7%)	217,822 (63.7%)	248,718 (78.0%)	229,151 (84.2%)
−5% or lower	4,046 (1.2%)	17,001 (4.9%)	93,058 (27.2%)	159,853 (50.1%)	170,780 (62.7%)
−10% or lower	773 (0.2%)	3,254 (0.9%)	21,515 (6.3%)	56,798 (17.8%)	78,044 (28.7%)
−15% or lower	257 (0.1%)	1,142 (0.3%)	7,423 (2.2%)	18,672 (5.9%)	30,390 (11.2%)
−20% or lower	119 (<0.1%)	512 (0.1%)	3,534 (1.0%)	9,203 (2.9%)	15,166 (5.6%)
−30% or lower	37 (<0.1%)	187 (0.1%)	1,100 (0.3%)	2,937 (0.9%)	5,154 (1.9%)
−50% or lower	2 (<0.1%)	24 (<0.1%)	145 (<0.1%)	408 (0.1%)	938 (0.3%)

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Distributions and daily counts

Upside reached · 24hThe most price moved up within 24 hours of each match: a high-water mark, never a close. 341,996 with a complete 24 hours.

Drawdown · 24hThe worst price moved against within 24 hours of each match: the deepest point, never the close. 341,996 with a complete 24 hours.

Price 30 minutes laterForward 30-minute returns across 346,620 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like. 4,920 too recent.

How to read a distribution

Matches per UTC day

8 Sep11,909 matches
9 Sep11,701 matches
10 Sep11,698 matches
11 Sep11,708 matches
12 Sep11,553 matches
13 Sep11,647 matches
14 Sep11,691 matches
15 Sep11,686 matches
16 Sep11,722 matches
17 Sep11,670 matches
18 Sep11,685 matches
19 Sep11,663 matches
20 Sep11,731 matches
21 Sep11,758 matches
22 Sep11,781 matches
23 Sep11,773 matches
24 Sep11,752 matches
25 Sep11,721 matches
26 Sep11,705 matches
27 Sep11,703 matches
28 Sep11,788 matches
29 Sep11,736 matches
30 Sep11,790 matches
1 Oct11,744 matches
2 Oct11,742 matches
3 Oct11,704 matches
4 Oct11,708 matches
5 Oct11,689 matches
6 Oct11,687 matches
7 Oct11,691 matches
8 Oct4 matches

How this is counted

Each rate counts only matches with the full window after them.
A minute where a reading was missing is left out and reported, not read as zero.
The condition picks the setup, never the outcome: a definition that filters on what followed is rejected (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE). Every match is measured, winners and losers alike.
"Other minutes" is every other eligible minute in the same markets and window. It is a reference, not a control group.
"Reached +5%" uses the highest price inside the window (maximum favourable excursion, MFE); "fell to −10%" uses the lowest (maximum adverse excursion, MAE). Neither is the close.
Checked 22,570,997 eligible market-minutes (eligible_symbol_buckets) on 524 markets, 2026-09-08 00:00 to 2026-10-08 00:00 UTC.
These counts pool every market, so markets that match often weigh more. Each market page compares that market with its own reference.
Live status is not connected yet, so this page is recorded history only.

What are MFE and MAE?

Reproducibility key (q#5fb47f38)

The key that re-runs this exact count. Same key, same bytes; when the record grows, the dataset revision changes.

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: 635fd9ab602d09e6edb17dd18c09bd6c6768f2cbaa55e2bc2c50fc869913ea18
query hash: 5fb47f3872822958bbed8e807213a9724ea451e067d335ab982a468cd284779a
scanned window: 2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Re-run over the API

The exact search definition behind this count. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes; a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.book_imbalance",
        "lte",
        -0.5
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.book_imbalance","lte",-0.5],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z","2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'