< All conditionsLive condition · historical base rate

Range compression on the 15-minute candle

The last completed 15-minute candle reads compressed against its recent range (compression at least 2).

Firing now (provisional, current bucket)

The live read is not yet enabled. This surface reports the historical base rates below; the firing-now list turns on when the live evaluator is connected.

What has happened when it held

Historically, when Range compression on the 15-minute candle held (86,621 occurrences in the scanned window, 79,337 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 18,782 of 79,337 (23.7) and drew down 10%+ in 4,667 of 79,337 (5.9). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED - ALL 86,621 MATCHES, FROM THE PER-SCAN SUMMARY

1,599 OF 81,980 (2.0%) REACHED ≥ +5% WITHIN 1H

METRIC MFE_1H · CHIPS RE-READ THE SUMMARY, NEVER RE-QUERY

🔒 COMPUTED FORWARD, NEVER A FILTER · DENOMINATOR 81,980 = MATCHES WITH A COMPLETE 1H HORIZON (4,641 ABSENT: TOO CLOSE TO THE RECORD EDGE FOR 1H - NEVER TRUNCATED, NEVER AN IMPLIED ZERO)

OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 86621 - ALL 86,621, NOT THE PAGE

About 2,794 a day, on 30 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 77,317 PRESENT · 9,304 ABSENT

Forward 30-minute returns across 77,317 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like.

Versus baseline

Historically, when any eligible minute in the window (baseline) held (24,766,660 occurrences in the scanned window, 22,383,732 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 5,211,130 of 22,383,732 (23.3) and drew down 10%+ in 1,233,791 of 22,383,732 (5.5). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

By market

Markets where this condition occurred often enough in the window to carry its own statistically meaningful receipt:

Reproducibility key (q#a0696712)

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: 52a43a418a97fbe3a324f7c372fa4d53967163acaa0ed33c56b78ddd897331a4
query hash: a06967123cff1273885ef9ac0dcfaf70546df6003604e63f6bba2bdf77097cc7
scanned window: 2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this over the API or MCP

This is the exact research_query.v2 definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and diff the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.candle_compression_15m",
        "gte",
        2
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.candle_compression_15m","gte",2],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

How to read this

Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.