Live condition · historical base rate

Range compression on the 15-minute candle

The last completed 15-minute candle reads compressed against its recent range (compression at least 2).

Firing now (provisional, current bucket)

The live read is not yet enabled. This surface reports the historical base rates below; the firing-now list turns on when the live evaluator is connected.

What has happened when it held

Historically, when Range compression on the 15-minute candle held (95,013 occurrences in the scanned window, 86,656 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 25,375 of 86,656 (29.3) and drew down 10%+ in 5,681 of 86,656 (6.6). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED · ALL 95,013 MATCHES

77,208 of 89,125 (86.6%) reached +0% or more within 1 hour · smallest move size with matches, picked for you

Pick a window and a move size: how often did a move at least that big follow?

WINDOWMOVE SIZE

🔒 Measured after every match, never by keeping winners. 89,125 of the matches have a complete 1 hour forward; the other 5,888 are too recent to know.

What are MFE and MAE?

Why 7 days can show fewer than 1 hour: a match too recent for a complete 7 days is left out of that count entirely, even if it already reached the level within 1 hour. The two counts cover different sets of matches.

When they happened - one bar per UTC day, all 95,013 matches

About 3,065 a day, on 31 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Where the next 30 minutes landed - 83,923 measured, 11,090 too recent

Forward 30-minute returns across 83,923 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like.

How to read a distribution

Upside reached · 24hThe most price moved up within 24h of each occurrence: a high-water mark, never a close. 86,656 with a complete 24h.

Drawdown · 24hThe worst price moved against within 24h of each occurrence: the deepest point, never the close. 86,656 with a complete 24h.

Versus baseline

Historically, when any eligible minute in the window (baseline) held (27,160,957 occurrences in the scanned window, 24,462,796 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 7,178,091 of 24,462,796 (29.3) and drew down 10%+ in 1,513,626 of 24,462,796 (6.2). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

By market

Markets where this condition occurred often enough in the window to carry its own statistically meaningful receipt:

1000BONKUSDT 1000PEPEUSDT 1000RATSUSDT 1000SHIBUSDT 4USDT AAVEUSDT ACEUSDT ADAUSDT AINUSDT AIOUSDT AKEUSDT APRUSDT APTUSDT ARBUSDT ASTERUSDT ATOMUSDT AVAXUSDT BANKUSDT BCHUSDT BEATUSDT BICOUSDT BLESSUSDT BLUAIUSDT BMTUSDT BNBUSDT BOMEUSDT BRUSDT BTCUSDT BTRUSDT BTWUSDT BULLAUSDT CAPUSDT COTIUSDT COWUSDT CYSUSDT DASHUSDT DEXEUSDT DOGEUSDT DOTUSDT EDENUSDT ENAUSDT ESPORTSUSDT ESPUSDT ETHUSDT EULUSDT FARTCOINUSDT FILUSDT FLOCKUSDT GIGGLEUSDT GPSUSDT GRVTUSDT GWEIUSDT HEIUSDT HEMIUSDT HFTUSDT HOMEUSDT HYPEUSDT INJUSDT IOSTUSDT KAITOUSDT KOMAUSDT LABUSDT LAUSDT LINKUSDT LITUSDT LSKUSDT LTCUSDT MAGMAUSDT MARSCOINUSDT MMTUSDT MOVRUSDT NEARUSDT ONDOUSDT ONEUSDT ONGUSDT ONUSDT OPUSDT ORDIUSDT PAXGUSDT PENGUUSDT POLUSDT PONSUSDT PORTALUSDT PROMUSDT PUMPUSDT RAYSOLUSDT RIFUSDT SEIUSDT SKRUSDT SKYAIUSDT SOLUSDT SOPHUSDT SUIUSDT SYNUSDT TACUSDT TAOUSDT TIAUSDT TRUMPUSDT TRXUSDT TUSDT TUTUSDT UAIUSDT UBUSDT UNIUSDT USELESSUSDT VELVETUSDT VTHOUSDT VVVUSDT WIFUSDT WLDUSDT WLFIUSDT XLMUSDT XMRUSDT XRPUSDT ZAMAUSDT ZECUSDT ZKCUSDT ZROUSDT

Check our work: the key that re-runs this exact count (q#308e67b9)

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: 8904ef0442c6f623ec772df2b59d7baf1e49aaa808b5b11ac31546605549e3bb
query hash: 308e67b9accb4894faa49bf640ad3d7743f85dd3102a41bf2cf5429f69623ba6
scanned window: 2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this yourself, over the API or from an AI agent

This is the exact search definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.candle_compression_15m",
        "gte",
        2
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.candle_compression_15m","gte",2],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z","2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

How to read this

Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.