< All conditionsLive condition · historical base rate

VPIN above 0.85

The raw VPIN estimate of order-flow toxicity is reading above 0.85 on its 0 to 1 scale.

Firing now (provisional, current bucket)

The live read is not yet enabled. This surface reports the historical base rates below; the firing-now list turns on when the live evaluator is connected.

What has happened when it held

Historically, when VPIN above 0.85 held (54 occurrences in the scanned window, 53 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 18 of 53 (34.0) and drew down 10%+ in 6 of 53 (11.3). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED - ALL 54 MATCHES, FROM THE PER-SCAN SUMMARY

2 OF 54 (3.7%) REACHED ≥ +5% WITHIN 1H

METRIC MFE_1H · CHIPS RE-READ THE SUMMARY, NEVER RE-QUERY

🔒 COMPUTED FORWARD, NEVER A FILTER · DENOMINATOR 54 = MATCHES WITH A COMPLETE 1H HORIZON

OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 54 - ALL 54, NOT THE PAGE

About 1.7 a day, on 14 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 54 PRESENT · 0 ABSENT

Forward 30-minute returns across 54 matches: 57% of them finished up.

Versus baseline

Historically, when any eligible minute in the window (baseline) held (27,372,415 occurrences in the scanned window, 24,309,362 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 5,653,261 of 24,309,362 (23.3) and drew down 10%+ in 1,349,445 of 24,309,362 (5.6). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Reproducibility key (q#5500a972)

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: 52a43a418a97fbe3a324f7c372fa4d53967163acaa0ed33c56b78ddd897331a4
query hash: 5500a9724d14e5190c3f22961340af6a9deabe60e94400e33127d96d921f719c
scanned window: 2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this over the API or MCP

This is the exact research_query.v2 definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and diff the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.vpin",
        "gte",
        0.85
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.vpin","gte",0.85],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

How to read this

Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.