Live condition · historical base rate

Liquidation cascade, then a reclaim

An elevated liquidation burst followed within 30 minutes by a 15-minute candle that swept lows and reclaimed them.

Firing now (provisional, current bucket)

The live read is not yet enabled. This surface reports the historical base rates below; the firing-now list turns on when the live evaluator is connected.

What has happened when it held

Historically, when Liquidation cascade, then a reclaim held (416 occurrences in the scanned window, 408 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 159 of 408 (39.0) and drew down 10%+ in 57 of 408 (14.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED · ALL 416 MATCHES

386 of 415 (93.0%) reached +0% or more within 1 hour · smallest move size with matches, picked for you

Pick a window and a move size: how often did a move at least that big follow?

WINDOWMOVE SIZE

🔒 Measured after every match, never by keeping winners. 415 of the matches have a complete 1 hour forward; the other 1 are too recent to know.

What are MFE and MAE?

Why 72 hours can show fewer than 1 hour: a match too recent for a complete 72 hours is left out of that count entirely, even if it already reached the level within 1 hour. The two counts cover different sets of matches.

When they happened - one bar per UTC day, all 416 matches

About 13 a day, on 30 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Where the next 30 minutes landed - 415 measured, 1 too recent

Forward 30-minute returns across 415 matches: 58% of them finished up.

How to read a distribution

Upside reached · 24hThe most price moved up within 24h of each occurrence: a high-water mark, never a close. 408 with a complete 24h.

Drawdown · 24hThe worst price moved against within 24h of each occurrence: the deepest point, never the close. 408 with a complete 24h.

Check our work: the key that re-runs this exact count (q#18d1f057)

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: 8904ef0442c6f623ec772df2b59d7baf1e49aaa808b5b11ac31546605549e3bb
query hash: 18d1f057f7be6d6079b61d9707eae3ce405f828864c5f4110bf117c128a3f79f
scanned window: 2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this yourself, over the API or from an AI agent

This is the exact search definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  },
  "sequence": {
    "steps": [
      {
        "all": [
          [
            "feature.liq_intensity_norm",
            "gte",
            0.5
          ]
        ]
      },
      {
        "all": [
          [
            "feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m",
            "eq",
            "bullish"
          ]
        ]
      }
    ],
    "within": "30m"
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z","2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null},"sequence":{"steps":[{"all":[["feature.liq_intensity_norm","gte",0.5]]},{"all":[["feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m","eq","bullish"]]}],"within":"30m"}}'

How to read this

Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.