< All conditionsLive condition · historical base rate

Liquidation cascade, then a reclaim

An elevated liquidation burst followed within 30 minutes by a 15-minute candle that swept lows and reclaimed them.

Firing now (provisional, current bucket)

The live read is not yet enabled. This surface reports the historical base rates below; the firing-now list turns on when the live evaluator is connected.

What has happened when it held

Historically, when Liquidation cascade, then a reclaim held (415 occurrences in the scanned window, 397 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 135 of 397 (34.0) and drew down 10%+ in 90 of 397 (22.7). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED - ALL 415 MATCHES, FROM THE PER-SCAN SUMMARY

32 OF 413 (7.7%) REACHED ≥ +5% WITHIN 1H

METRIC MFE_1H · CHIPS RE-READ THE SUMMARY, NEVER RE-QUERY

🔒 COMPUTED FORWARD, NEVER A FILTER · DENOMINATOR 413 = MATCHES WITH A COMPLETE 1H HORIZON (2 ABSENT: TOO CLOSE TO THE RECORD EDGE FOR 1H - NEVER TRUNCATED, NEVER AN IMPLIED ZERO)

OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 415 - ALL 415, NOT THE PAGE

About 13 a day, on 29 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 407 PRESENT · 8 ABSENT

Forward 30-minute returns across 407 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like.

Reproducibility key (q#de8f8c27)

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: 52a43a418a97fbe3a324f7c372fa4d53967163acaa0ed33c56b78ddd897331a4
query hash: de8f8c276a23680f57f1f6a5be3209181de4b7eddd3236ca567f8a60ea6a0558
scanned window: 2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this over the API or MCP

This is the exact research_query.v2 definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and diff the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  },
  "sequence": {
    "steps": [
      {
        "all": [
          [
            "feature.liq_intensity_norm",
            "gte",
            0.5
          ]
        ]
      },
      {
        "all": [
          [
            "feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m",
            "eq",
            "bullish"
          ]
        ]
      }
    ],
    "within": "30m"
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null},"sequence":{"steps":[{"all":[["feature.liq_intensity_norm","gte",0.5]]},{"all":[["feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m","eq","bullish"]]}],"within":"30m"}}'

How to read this

Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.