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< All conditions
Condition · recorded history

Liquidation cascade, then a reclaim

An elevated liquidation burst followed within 30 minutes by a 15-minute candle that swept lows and reclaimed them.

What is a liquidation?

Recorded window: 5 Sept 2026 to 4 Oct 2026 (UTC). Counted 5 Oct 2026 at 09:38 UTC.

What happened in the next 24 hours?

Other minutes are the same markets and dates without this condition. Each percentage is the share of measured minutes that reached that move from the starting price.

Price touched +5% or higher

When this held
41.3% · 157 of 380 minutes
Other minutes
Unavailable for this window

Price touched −10% or lower

When this held
18.2% · 69 of 380 minutes
Other minutes
Unavailable for this window

Price can touch both levels within the same 24 hours.

Sample and counting

Rates use the 380 of 382 matches, pooled across 524 markets, with a full 24 hours after them. The 2 newer ones are left out, not counted as zero.

Edit this test in Workbench

By market

No market has its own page for this condition yet. Pages are rebuilt nightly for the most-traded markets with at least 20 matches.

When it happened
Matches per UTC day, 2026-09-05 to 2026-10-05

About 12 a day, on 28 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Other windows and move sizes
Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move1 hour4 hours24 hours72 hours7 days
Measured382382380349287
Too recent0023395
+0.1% or more361 (94.5%)372 (97.4%)375 (98.7%)348 (99.7%)287 (100.0%)
+0.2% or more339 (88.7%)361 (94.5%)371 (97.6%)348 (99.7%)287 (100.0%)
+0.5% or more275 (72.0%)319 (83.5%)352 (92.6%)345 (98.9%)285 (99.3%)
+1% or more177 (46.3%)257 (67.3%)319 (83.9%)335 (96.0%)279 (97.2%)
+2% or more90 (23.6%)169 (44.2%)265 (69.7%)313 (89.7%)262 (91.3%)
+5% or more27 (7.1%)56 (14.7%)157 (41.3%)227 (65.0%)224 (78.0%)
+10% or more9 (2.4%)18 (4.7%)71 (18.7%)152 (43.6%)182 (63.4%)
+15% or more4 (1.0%)13 (3.4%)38 (10.0%)90 (25.8%)146 (50.9%)
+20% or more0 (0.0%)8 (2.1%)24 (6.3%)59 (16.9%)104 (36.2%)
+30% or more0 (0.0%)1 (0.3%)17 (4.5%)35 (10.0%)68 (23.7%)
+50% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)6 (1.6%)15 (4.3%)29 (10.1%)
+100% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)2 (0.5%)5 (1.4%)6 (2.1%)
+200% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)1 (0.3%)2 (0.7%)
+400% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)2 (0.7%)
−0.1% or lower356 (93.2%)365 (95.5%)375 (98.7%)348 (99.7%)286 (99.7%)
−0.2% or lower334 (87.4%)357 (93.5%)370 (97.4%)347 (99.4%)285 (99.3%)
−0.5% or lower253 (66.2%)318 (83.2%)353 (92.9%)336 (96.3%)279 (97.2%)
−1% or lower160 (41.9%)250 (65.4%)316 (83.2%)324 (92.8%)270 (94.1%)
−2% or lower80 (20.9%)170 (44.5%)275 (72.4%)299 (85.7%)255 (88.9%)
−5% or lower34 (8.9%)64 (16.8%)163 (42.9%)218 (62.5%)195 (67.9%)
−10% or lower12 (3.1%)21 (5.5%)69 (18.2%)103 (29.5%)112 (39.0%)
−15% or lower4 (1.0%)6 (1.6%)42 (11.1%)64 (18.3%)71 (24.7%)
−20% or lower2 (0.5%)6 (1.6%)21 (5.5%)42 (12.0%)45 (15.7%)
−30% or lower2 (0.5%)3 (0.8%)6 (1.6%)20 (5.7%)26 (9.1%)
−50% or lower0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)2 (0.5%)6 (1.7%)7 (2.4%)

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Distributions and daily counts
Upside reached · 24hUpside reached (MFE, 24h)The most price moved up within 24 hours of each match: a high-water mark, never a close. 380 with a complete 24 hours.
Drawdown · 24hDrawdown (MAE, 24h)The worst price moved against within 24 hours of each match: the deepest point, never the close. 380 with a complete 24 hours.
Price 30 minutes laterForward 30-minute returnForward 30-minute returns across 382 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like. 0 too recent.

How to read a distribution

Matches per UTC day

  • 5 Sep2 matches
  • 6 Sep12 matches
  • 7 Sep12 matches
  • 8 Sep7 matches
  • 9 Sep22 matches
  • 10 Sep7 matches
  • 11 Sep5 matches
  • 12 Sep3 matches
  • 13 Sep37 matches
  • 14 Sep6 matches
  • 15 Sep43 matches
  • 16 Sep11 matches
  • 17 Sep7 matches
  • 18 Sep6 matches
  • 19 Sep12 matches
  • 20 Sep11 matches
  • 21 Sep10 matches
  • 22 Sep11 matches
  • 23 Sep19 matches
  • 24 Sep0 matches
  • 25 Sep0 matches
  • 26 Sep5 matches
  • 27 Sep16 matches
  • 28 Sep31 matches
  • 29 Sep20 matches
  • 30 Sep11 matches
  • 1 Oct20 matches
  • 2 Oct29 matches
  • 3 Oct4 matches
  • 4 Oct3 matches
  • 5 Oct0 matches
How this is counted
  • Each rate counts only matches with the full window after them.
  • A minute where a reading was missing is left out and reported, not read as zero.
  • The condition picks the setup, never the outcome: a definition that filters on what followed is rejected (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE). Every match is measured, winners and losers alike.
  • "Other minutes" is every other eligible minute in the same markets and window. It is a reference, not a control group.
  • "Reached +5%" uses the highest price inside the window (maximum favourable excursion, MFE); "fell to −10%" uses the lowest (maximum adverse excursion, MAE). Neither is the close.
  • Checked 22,416,945 eligible market-minutes (eligible_symbol_buckets) on 524 markets, 2026-09-05 00:00 to 2026-10-05 00:00 UTC.
  • These counts pool every market, so markets that match often weigh more. Each market page compares that market with its own reference.
  • Live status is not connected yet, so this page is recorded history only.

What are MFE and MAE?

Reproducibility key (q#7ab05d7a)

The key that re-runs this exact count. Same key, same bytes; when the record grows, the dataset revision changes.

grammar
research_query.v2
normalization
archive_normalization.v1
feature library
feature_defs.v1
dataset revision
d6a4f093a020f98526eb5919dd69290b75a7e3f0e4ea7cd3c8656a205e9c2a23
query hash
7ab05d7afb3e77e17364c07f9803383d84acecb9751e8354c90bb7551c497e39
scanned window
2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Re-run over the API

The exact search definition behind this count. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes; a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  },
  "sequence": {
    "steps": [
      {
        "all": [
          [
            "feature.liq_intensity_norm",
            "gte",
            0.5
          ]
        ]
      },
      {
        "all": [
          [
            "feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m",
            "eq",
            "bullish"
          ]
        ]
      }
    ],
    "within": "30m"
  }
}
curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z","2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null},"sequence":{"steps":[{"all":[["feature.liq_intensity_norm","gte",0.5]]},{"all":[["feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m","eq","bullish"]]}],"within":"30m"}}'

Past examples from the record, not a guarantee or a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.

Liquidation cascade, then a reclaim: historical base rates | EdgeDepth