Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.

When a bullish engulfing candle is followed by a 5% jump within the hour, what happens next?

9,092 historical matches·844 markets scanned·2025-07-15 to 2026-09-04

At a glance

Bigger moves both ways, more often down.

Price change 30 minutes after the setup completed.

Fell 2% or more34%3,078 of 9,085 matches1.9% of reference minutes · 18x as often5,826,103 of 309,306,062 minutes

Rose 2% or more25%2,312 of 9,085 matches2.1% of reference minutes · 12x as often6,523,279 of 309,306,062 minutes

Reference: every eligible minute in the same markets and dates, with no setup filter. 7 matches without a complete outcome are left out.

Data limitation: Last match 2026-08-20; 14 days before the scanned window ends. Some low-point readings contain missing-price defects. See data quality details ↓

▸ Replay one Edit this question →Check newer evidence ↓

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When a bullish engulfing candle is followed by a 5% jump within the hour, what happens next?

9,092 matches · 844 markets · 2025-07-15 to 2026-09-04 UTC

Bigger moves both ways, more often down.

Price at 30 minutes after the completed setup. 7 incomplete outcomes excluded.

Closed 2% or more lower: 33.9% (3,078 of 9,085). Reference: 1.9% (5,826,103 of 309,306,062).

Closed 2% or more higher: 25.4% (2,312 of 9,085). Reference: 2.1% (6,523,279 of 309,306,062).

Reference: all eligible minutes in the same markets and dates, without a setup filter; not a matched control.

Last match 2026-08-20; 14 days before the window ends.

Some low-point readings have missing-price defects.

Historical evidence, not a trading return or prediction.

Read the evidence and edit the question: https://edgedepth.com/research/reports/featurecandleengulfing15m-bullish-then-featureret15m-005-within-pt1h-fec86629?utm_source=report-share&utm_medium=peer-share

Scope: all scanned markets combined, no market or sector filter. Not a result for any one market, sector or asset class. Matches by market ↓ · Research coverage →

Results by time periodCompare 30 minutes, 1 hour and longer periods, including larger moves

Choose a time period. “Closed” measures the price at its end; high and low points measure prices reached along the way. Reference rates use all eligible minutes in the same markets and date range.

30 minutes7 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	25.4%2,312 of 9,085	2.1%6,523,279 of 309,306,062	12x
Closed 2% or more lower	33.9%3,078 of 9,085	1.9%5,826,103 of 309,306,062	18x
Closed 5% or more higher	11.8%1,076 of 9,085	0.3%893,008 of 309,306,062	41x
Closed 5% or more lower	10.9%991 of 9,085	0.2%717,031 of 309,306,062	47x
High point 5% or more above	27.3%2,478 of 9,090	0.7%2,144,607 of 314,124,431	40x
Low point 5% or more below	23.6%2,149 of 9,090	0.6%1,992,016 of 314,124,431	37x

1 hour10 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	27.7%2,512 of 9,082	4.1%12,625,601 of 309,270,041	6.8x
Closed 2% or more lower	39.2%3,562 of 9,082	3.9%12,006,140 of 309,270,041	10x
Closed 5% or more higher	15.4%1,403 of 9,082	0.6%1,962,537 of 309,270,041	24x
Closed 5% or more lower	17.0%1,542 of 9,082	0.5%1,554,800 of 309,270,041	34x
High point 5% or more above	36.3%3,302 of 9,090	1.5%4,728,628 of 314,109,985	24x
Low point 5% or more below	35.4%3,219 of 9,090	1.3%4,078,811 of 314,109,985	27x

4 hours24 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	31.4%2,843 of 9,068	12.1%37,217,067 of 308,817,300	2.6x
Closed 2% or more lower	47.4%4,297 of 9,068	13.0%40,042,741 of 308,817,300	3.7x
Closed 5% or more higher	21.5%1,946 of 9,068	2.7%8,215,424 of 308,817,300	8.1x
Closed 5% or more lower	29.8%2,706 of 9,068	2.5%7,606,298 of 308,817,300	12x
High point 5% or more above	53.0%4,817 of 9,089	6.4%20,179,064 of 313,989,332	8.2x
Low point 5% or more below	58.5%5,320 of 9,089	5.7%17,974,657 of 313,989,332	10x

24 hours92 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	32.7%2,947 of 9,000	27.0%83,027,835 of 307,038,713	1.2x
Closed 2% or more lower	56.1%5,047 of 9,000	32.6%100,217,389 of 307,038,713	1.7x
Closed 5% or more higher	26.6%2,392 of 9,000	11.7%36,049,343 of 307,038,713	2.3x
Closed 5% or more lower	46.1%4,149 of 9,000	13.7%42,173,897 of 307,038,713	3.4x
High point 5% or more above	70.6%6,411 of 9,079	28.3%88,759,065 of 313,152,058	2.5x
Low point 5% or more below	79.9%7,250 of 9,079	29.3%91,675,224 of 313,152,058	2.7x

72 hours: Not included in this saved report.

7 days: Not included in this saved report.

Average and median returns are not available in this report. These frequencies alone do not establish profitability.

When did it happen, and how spread out were returns?Frequency over time and the distribution of 30-minute returns

Occurrences per day · UTC · sum 9,092

Each bar counts matching setups on one UTC day. Look for clusters: many examples from a short period may reflect the same market episode.

Where price ended after 30 minutes

These three groups cover every complete outcome, including the moves smaller than 2%. Bar length shows the share of matches, not the size of the price move.

Fell 2% or more33.9%

3,078 of 9,085 matches

Between −2% and +2%40.7%

3,695 of 9,085 matches

Rose 2% or more25.4%

2,312 of 9,085 matches

7 incomplete outcomes excluded. This measures the price at 30 minutes, not the highest or lowest price reached on the way.

Detailed distribution: 28 return ranges

30-minute return distribution · 9,085 present · 7 absent. Each column counts outcomes in the labelled return range. The ranges have different widths; compare counts, not the shape as a probability density.

Author's noteOpinion, not machine output

"Full-record refresh of q#3c0016a5, which scanned 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-26. That pinned report is unchanged."

Results since publicationHave new matches appeared, and what happened after them?

Outcome	Original study, 2025-07-15 to 2026-09-04	Since publication, from 2026-09-05
Traded 5% or more above the match within 1h	3,302 of 9,090 (36.3%) · 2 absent, not counted	loading
Closed 2% or more higher at 24h	2,947 of 9,000 (32.7%) · 92 absent, not counted	loading
Closed 2% or more lower at 24h	5,047 of 9,000 (56.1%) · 92 absent, not counted	loading

Both periods are counted the same way. The later period is the same search on data recorded after publication, not a preregistered test. A missing outcome is never counted as zero.

Matches by marketMost matches: BEATUSDT 110 · LABUSDT 105 · SIRENUSDT 103844 markets itemized

Find where this setup appeared. These are occurrence counts, not performance rankings. Outcomes for individual markets are not included in this saved report.

Find a marketShowing 25 of 844 itemized markets

BEATUSDT110375,0022.9
LABUSDT105442,5472.4
SIRENUSDT103548,5371.9
BASUSDT101487,2472.1
HUSDT100548,5371.8
BLESSUSDT95447,1672.1
AIAUSDT90397,5482.3
EVAAUSDT90462,9471.9
AKEUSDT89472,9071.9
BULLAUSDT88548,5371.6
COAIUSDT87444,4072.0
RIVERUSDT86412,2922.1
SKYAIUSDT86548,5371.6
MYXUSDT85548,5371.5
PIPPINUSDT84548,5371.5
NAORISUSDT82524,7471.6
AIOTUSDT80548,5371.5
ESPORTSUSDT77527,7771.5
RAVEUSDT74328,7272.3
FHEUSDT72548,5371.3
XNYUSDT68506,0721.3
BTWUSDT66110,8216.0
VELVETUSDT66578,2221.1
QUSDT61477,5271.3
4USDT60425,4471.4

Examples and replaysFirst 50 of 9,092 matches

Examples, never the denominator; the counts above cover every match. Replay opens 30 minutes before the moment and depends on coverage and access.

Sort the 50 examples shown here. This does not sort all study matches.

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