When a bullish engulfing candle is followed by a 5% jump within the hour, what happens next?

9,092 matches·all scanned symbols·2025-07-15 to 2026-09-04

More often lower: 5,166 of the 9,085 completed matches fell over the next 30 minutes (56.9%).

9,092
matches
844
markets
321,624,898
eligible market-minutes scanned
7
without a 30m outcome

Of all eligible minutes across the same 844 markets: 156,898,765 of 309,306,062 rose (50.7%) and 152,407,297 fell (49.3%) over the same 30 minutes.

OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 9092
124062MATCHES PER UTC DAY · MAX 124 ON 2025-10-10JUL 15AUG 01SEP 01OCT 01NOV 01DEC 01JAN 01FEB 01MAR 01APR 01MAY 01JUN 01JUL 01AUG 01SEP 012025-07-15 TO 2026-09-04 · 417 UTC DAYS · ZERO DAYS KEEP THEIR SLOT
FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 9085 PRESENT · 7 ABSENT10 FIXED BUCKETS
≥ +5: 1076 OF 908518242711981220871035526324118851049827942170512367061938457306≤−100−50−30−20−15−10−5−2−1−0.5−0.2−0.1<00++0.1+0.2+0.5+1+2+5+10+15+20+30+50≥+400
AUTHOR'S NOTE - OPINION, NOT MACHINE OUTPUT

"Full-record refresh of q#3c0016a5, which scanned 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-26. That pinned report is unchanged."

Results since publicationThe same search on data recorded after publication, side by side
OutcomeOriginal window, 2025-07-15 to 2026-09-04Since publication, from 2026-09-05
Traded 5% or more above the match within 1h3,302 of 9,090 (36.3%) · 2 absent, not countedloading
Closed 2% or more higher at 24h2,947 of 9,000 (32.7%) · 92 absent, not countedloading
Closed 2% or more lower at 24h5,047 of 9,000 (56.1%) · 92 absent, not countedloading

Both periods are counted the same way. The later period is the same search on data recorded after publication, not a preregistered test. A missing outcome is never counted as zero.

Matches by marketMost matches: BEATUSDT 110 · LABUSDT 105 · SIRENUSDT 103844 markets itemized

How many matches each market contributed, over the minutes actually scanned there. The rate is matches per 10,000 scanned minutes, a frequency of the setup and not a result. What followed is summarized above over all matches together; the pinned result carries no per-market outcome summary, so none is claimed here.

Showing 25 of 844 itemized markets
  • BEABEATUSDT110375,0022.9
  • LABLABUSDT105442,5472.4
  • SIRSIRENUSDT103548,5371.9
  • BASBASUSDT101487,2472.1
  • HHUSDT100548,5371.8
  • BLEBLESSUSDT95447,1672.1
  • AIAAIAUSDT90397,5482.3
  • EVAEVAAUSDT90462,9471.9
  • AKEAKEUSDT89472,9071.9
  • BULBULLAUSDT88548,5371.6
  • COACOAIUSDT87444,4072.0
  • RIVRIVERUSDT86412,2922.1
  • SKYSKYAIUSDT86548,5371.6
  • MYXMYXUSDT85548,5371.5
  • PIPPIPPINUSDT84548,5371.5
  • NAONAORISUSDT82524,7471.6
  • AIOAIOTUSDT80548,5371.5
  • ESPESPORTSUSDT77527,7771.5
  • RAVRAVEUSDT74328,7272.3
  • FHEFHEUSDT72548,5371.3
  • XNYXNYUSDT68506,0721.3
  • BTWBTWUSDT66110,8216.0
  • VELVELVETUSDT66578,2221.1
  • QQUSDT61477,5271.3
  • 44USDT60425,4471.4
Examples and replaysFirst 50 of 9,092 matches

Examples, never the denominator; the counts above cover every match. Replay opens 30 minutes before the moment.

MarketWhen (UTC)30m returnHigh-water 1hLow-water 1hReplay
ONGONGUSDT2026-08-20 23:37···replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05721636853712342sequence_step_2
BTWBTWUSDT2026-08-20 20:37+0.49%+2.06%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.052921200703963445sequence_step_2
KODKODEX200USDT2026-08-20 19:22−2.80%+0.50%−3.22%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.0646626586506347sequence_step_2
VELVELVETUSDT2026-08-20 18:04+2.42%+8.39%−5.13%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.06046441495778043sequence_step_2
ROBROBOUSDT2026-08-20 17:40−1.71%+0.22%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.06324110671936767sequence_step_2
PEOPEOPLEUSDT2026-08-20 16:16+2.06%+7.83%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05071688422854703sequence_step_2
HHUSDT2026-08-20 15:40+1.42%+2.38%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05135411343893703sequence_step_2
HIMHIMSUSDT2026-08-20 13:37+2.08%+3.07%−0.22%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05845648604269282sequence_step_2
CHICHIPUSDT2026-08-20 11:08+2.81%+5.22%−0.68%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.060323159784560154sequence_step_2
SKYSKYAIUSDT2026-08-20 02:21+7.05%+8.10%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.052746294681778494sequence_step_2
VELVELVETUSDT2026-08-20 01:02−1.96%+0.32%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05256957738182888sequence_step_2
TRUTRUMPUSDT2026-08-20 00:33−2.48%+0.54%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.058789954337899575sequence_step_2
AVAAVAAIUSDT2026-08-19 23:59+2.73%+4.21%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05298501955575241sequence_step_2
BTWBTWUSDT2026-08-19 21:10−3.47%+3.46%−6.85%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.07455342817413624sequence_step_2
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-19 21:05+1.01%+3.30%−0.94%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.06271873576015508sequence_step_2
BTWBTWUSDT2026-08-19 19:34−4.26%+2.06%−6.59%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05092899800928996sequence_step_2
LITLITUSDT2026-08-19 19:20−1.22%+1.88%−4.67%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.08531109685695948sequence_step_2
REDREDUSDT2026-08-19 17:12−6.16%+0.78%−7.53%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.06569343065693434sequence_step_2
GPSGPSUSDT2026-08-19 17:01+0.79%+1.28%−2.82%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05276487969607424sequence_step_2
TRETREEUSDT2026-08-19 15:12−5.95%+11.33%−7.34%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.0534427044494159sequence_step_2
TRETREEUSDT2026-08-19 14:11+14.98%+15.64%−0.25%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05154937735302645sequence_step_2
MMUSDT2026-08-19 13:41−2.94%+2.76%−4.48%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.054137596043451364sequence_step_2
CRCCRCLUSDT2026-08-19 13:36−0.76%+0.75%−2.64%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.056932715881231166sequence_step_2
BRBRUSDT2026-08-19 10:43−0.16%+4.83%−1.22%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.050082652012688245sequence_step_2
CYSCYSUSDT2026-08-19 09:00−7.65%+7.41%−10.15%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05064695009242137sequence_step_2
BTWBTWUSDT2026-08-19 07:39+2.75%+7.51%−0.57%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.06002782746968793sequence_step_2
HHUSDT2026-08-19 07:35−4.18%+0.77%−4.62%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05832320777642774sequence_step_2
HEMHEMIUSDT2026-08-19 06:55−1.57%+4.68%−6.76%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05055311050315203sequence_step_2
SKHSKHYUSDT2026-08-19 06:54+3.00%+3.52%+0.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.051876817340734904sequence_step_2
SKHSKHYNIXUSDT2026-08-19 06:48+0.42%+2.56%−0.97%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05634025019488487sequence_step_2
BTWBTWUSDT2026-08-19 06:34+1.50%+8.77%−3.30%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.054343971631205745sequence_step_2
SKYSKYAIUSDT2026-08-19 05:30−1.21%+0.76%−3.70%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.06918836723056465sequence_step_2
STASTARUSDT2026-08-19 04:23−0.25%+2.61%−2.31%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.0522749273959342sequence_step_2
BTWBTWUSDT2026-08-19 03:28+8.52%+17.40%−1.94%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.053900254473320475sequence_step_2
STASTARUSDT2026-08-19 03:08+7.62%+10.47%−1.32%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.06268656716417897sequence_step_2
BTWBTWUSDT2026-08-19 02:10+3.84%+16.25%−1.56%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05320743740630518sequence_step_2
JCTJCTUSDT2026-08-19 02:05−4.63%+4.69%−7.03%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05523590333716921sequence_step_2
ACEACEUSDT2026-08-18 18:21−1.84%+0.66%−4.04%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.052192840272310415sequence_step_2
HHUSDT2026-08-18 15:53−1.30%+0.16%−3.31%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05232287496508703sequence_step_2
SANSANTOSUSDT2026-08-18 15:21−1.45%+0.26%−4.38%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.06291604036933651sequence_step_2
ACEACEUSDT2026-08-18 12:18+8.81%+14.19%−2.23%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05618508026440039sequence_step_2
AIOAIOUSDT2026-08-18 12:11−1.52%+0.16%−5.59%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05136842105263151sequence_step_2
VELVELVETUSDT2026-08-18 12:10+7.67%+10.61%−1.86%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05231930960086295sequence_step_2
EDEEDENUSDT2026-08-18 11:02−3.90%+1.92%−10.66%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05319148936170204sequence_step_2
CYSCYSUSDT2026-08-18 09:34+0.17%+2.15%−2.80%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.06265306122448999sequence_step_2
AKEAKEUSDT2026-08-18 09:32+1.70%+2.78%−2.66%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.0505313381045327sequence_step_2
REDREDUSDT2026-08-18 08:57−1.57%+0.79%−3.93%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.051652892561983466sequence_step_2
AIOAIOUSDT2026-08-18 08:10−5.82%+2.50%−7.13%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05659574468085116sequence_step_2
AGTAGTUSDT2026-08-18 07:34+0.40%+3.04%−2.30%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.06172339276066996sequence_step_2
HEIHEIUSDT2026-08-18 07:21−0.80%+3.35%−1.80%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.candle_engulfing_15meq"bullish"bullishsequence_step_1
feature.ret_15mbetween{"gte":0.05}0.05257427282625593sequence_step_2
Evidence and methodologyThe exact search, the pin, missing data and versions

Published 2026-09-05 by @admin · q#fec86629

Exact search

Every time the last 15-minute candle is a bullish engulfing, then the last 15 minutes returned 5% or more within 1 hour

SCOPEtimes.anchor_time between 2025-07-15T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z
STEP 1feature.candle_engulfing_15m = bullish
STEP 2feature.ret_15m ≥ 0.05within PT1H

These values are what ran, confirmed by the author before the run. Prose on this page is commentary.

Pinned result

v2 · nrm.v1 · ft.v1 · rev 6e2bee53…a3be76fb · q#fec86629

This ID reruns to the same answer on any day and any account. It never changes; the record grows nightly and a rerun publishes as a new labeled result.

Outcome diagnostics

Headline split (mfe_1h)
3,302 of 9,090 (36.3%) traded 5% or more above the match at some point within 1h (mfe_1h, a high-water mark and not a close). 5,788 of 9,090 did not. Measured forward from each match. 2 absent, excluded from the denominator.
Peak day and span
Busiest day 2025-10-10: 124 of 9,092 matches (1.4%). 417 UTC days scanned: 390 with matches, 27 with none.
Present and absent by metric
fwd_ret_30m: present 9,085 · absent 7
mfe_1h: present 9,090 · absent 2
mae_1h: present 9,090 · absent 2
Absent: no completed outcome (record edge or missing minutes), excluded from every rate.
Threshold counts (fwd_ret_30m), both signs
≥ +03815 OF 9085
≥ +03717 OF 9085
≥ +13438 OF 9085
≥ +13017 OF 9085
≥ +22312 OF 9085
≥ +51076 OF 9085
≥ +10370 OF 9085
≥ +15177 OF 9085
≥ +2093 OF 9085
≥ +3036 OF 9085
≥ +506 OF 9085
≥ +1000 OF 9085
≥ +2000 OF 9085
≥ +4000 OF 9085
≤ -05081 OF 9085
≤ -04963 OF 9085
≤ -14639 OF 9085
≤ -14113 OF 9085
≤ -23078 OF 9085
≤ -5991 OF 9085
≤ -10179 OF 9085
≤ -1560 OF 9085
≤ -2033 OF 9085
≤ -309 OF 9085
≤ -501 OF 9085
≤ -1000 OF 9085
Every row is an exact partial sum of the distribution buckets in the chart, so the table and the chart cannot disagree.

Methodology and versions

DEFINITION
2 steps · 1 scope
How this is counted
feature.candle_engulfing_15m = bullish THEN feature.ret_15m ≥ 0.05 WITHIN PT1H. the chips at the top of the page are this definition, verbatim.
EXECUTION
edge-triggered · 1m UTC grid
How this is counted
the predicate becomes true having been false; sequences chain greedy-earliest and anchor at completion; episode dedupe PT1H. deterministic at every worker count.
DENOMINATORS
321,624,898 of 505,590,604
How this is counted
eligible market-minutes scanned (one market for one minute) across 844 markets; 183,965,706 excluded where a measurement was not yet available - missing data shrinks the denominator, it never counts as zero; 53197 market-days excluded by the source ledger. counts are matches within the scanned window, never a base rate.
OUTCOMES
forward from anchor · in-scan
How this is counted
closed threshold list ±0/0/1/1/2/5/10/15/20/30/50/100/200/400 pct, 28 fixed buckets across 12 forward metrics, computed over all occurrences pre-paging. an outcome absent at the record edge (horizon incomplete) is counted, never truncated or implied zero. nothing on this page is filterable by outcome. nothing here is a guarantee or trading advice.
OBSERVATION SCOPE
setup as-of anchor
How this is counted
setup values are as-of the anchor bucket close (point-in-time freeze); window aggregates cover their stated pre-anchor duration; every value the predicate consulted is at or before the anchor.
PIN
pinned 2026-09-05 · 9092
How this is counted
the pinned result (counts, page-1 rows, outcomes, outcomes summary) never mutates. later dataset revisions are new runs, never merged.
SORT
times.anchor_time asc
How this is counted
the only record sort in v2.0; page limit 50. the pinned rows are page 1 of 9,092 - charts and rates derive from the summary over all occurrences, never from the page.
VERSIONS
q#fec86629 · rev 6e2bee531043
How this is counted
schema research_query.v2 · normalization archive_normalization.v1 · features feature_defs.v1 · encoding record_result.v6. same key implies a byte-identical rerun.
DATASET REV · FULL
6e2bee531043791f0990ab61c8c7c22d18aaea20c1543c1798cd9019a3be76fb

These are counts of what happened in the scanned window, not a promise it happens again. Nothing here is trading advice.