When a bullish engulfing candle is followed by a 5% jump within the hour, what happens next?

1,285 historical matches·677 markets scanned·2026-05-15 to 2026-07-26

At a glance

What the historical record shows

Usually lower after 30 minutes: 727 of 1,284 completed windows fell (56.6%). No reference rate is available, so no lift is claimed.

Use this to decide what to investigate next. These historical frequencies do not establish a profitable trade.

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When a bullish engulfing candle is followed by a 5% jump within the hour, what happens next?

1,285 matches · 677 markets · 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-26 UTC

Usually lower after 30 minutes: 727 of 1,284 completed windows fell (56.6%). No reference rate is available, so no lift is claimed.

Historical evidence, not a trading return or prediction.

Read the evidence and edit the question: https://edgedepth.com/research/reports/featurecandleengulfing15m-bullish-then-featureret15m-005-within-pt1h-3c0016a5?utm_source=report-share&utm_medium=peer-share

Which markets does this cover?

All markets scanned by this study. No market or sector filter.

Results combine 677 scanned markets. They do not establish the outcome for an individual market or sector.

Asset-class and sector breakdowns are not included in this saved result. See research coverage →

Explore market coverage ↓

What is this report for?

Test a market observation against recorded history, compare what followed with the reference rate, then inspect examples before pursuing the idea.

Understand the setup and method ↓

Armed as a standing alert (definition #3), linked 2026-07-27: the live alert watches for exactly this definition; it and this page compile to the same ID.

Results by time periodCompare 30 minutes, 1 hour and longer periods, including larger moves

Choose a time period. “Closed” measures the price at its end; high and low points measure prices reached along the way. No same-scope reference is pinned to this report, so no ratio is claimed.

30 minutes1 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	25.6%329 of 1,284	Not available	Not available
Closed 2% or more lower	32.6%418 of 1,284	Not available	Not available
Closed 5% or more higher	12.5%160 of 1,284	Not available	Not available
Closed 5% or more lower	10.3%132 of 1,284	Not available	Not available
High point 5% or more above	not in ladder	Not available	Not available
Low point 5% or more below	not in ladder	Not available	Not available

1 hourView outcomes and counts

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	not in ladder	Not available	Not available
Closed 2% or more lower	not in ladder	Not available	Not available
Closed 5% or more higher	not in ladder	Not available	Not available
Closed 5% or more lower	not in ladder	Not available	Not available
High point 5% or more above	35.8%460 of 1,284	Not available	Not available
Low point 5% or more below	33.6%432 of 1,284	Not available	Not available

4 hours6 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	32.4%414 of 1,279	Not available	Not available
Closed 2% or more lower	46.1%590 of 1,279	Not available	Not available
Closed 5% or more higher	22.5%288 of 1,279	Not available	Not available
Closed 5% or more lower	29.1%372 of 1,279	Not available	Not available
High point 5% or more above	53.2%683 of 1,284	Not available	Not available
Low point 5% or more below	57.3%736 of 1,284	Not available	Not available

24 hours24 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	35.1%442 of 1,261	Not available	Not available
Closed 2% or more lower	53.8%678 of 1,261	Not available	Not available
Closed 5% or more higher	29.6%373 of 1,261	Not available	Not available
Closed 5% or more lower	43.1%544 of 1,261	Not available	Not available
High point 5% or more above	72.5%919 of 1,267	Not available	Not available
Low point 5% or more below	79.7%1,010 of 1,267	Not available	Not available

72 hours: Not included in this saved report.

7 days: Not included in this saved report.

Average and median returns are not available in this report. These frequencies alone do not establish profitability.

When did it happen, and how spread out were returns?Frequency over time and the distribution of 30-minute returns

Occurrences per day · UTC · sum 1,285

Each bar counts matching setups on one UTC day. Look for clusters: many examples from a short period may reflect the same market episode.

Where price ended after 30 minutes

These three groups cover every complete outcome, including the moves smaller than 2%. Bar length shows the share of matches, not the size of the price move.

Fell 2% or more32.6%

418 of 1,284 matches

Between −2% and +2%41.8%

537 of 1,284 matches

Rose 2% or more25.6%

329 of 1,284 matches

1 incomplete outcomes excluded. This measures the price at 30 minutes, not the highest or lowest price reached on the way.

Detailed distribution: 14 return ranges

30-minute return distribution · 1,284 present · 1 absent. Each column counts outcomes in the labelled return range. The ranges have different widths; compare counts, not the shape as a probability density.

AUTHOR'S NOTE - OPINION, NOT MACHINE OUTPUT
"Successor to q#ed3ac65e, invalidated 2026-07-20: its record_result.v2 pin materialized sequence-step evidence from the final anchor bucket, so step-1 rows could show the wrong bucket's values. The engine defect is fixed; this pin carries per-step evidence under record_result.v4. This successor asks the same question over the full recorded corpus (2026-05-15 to 2026-07-26) rather than the predecessor's 7-day window. Rerun on the current engine, the predecessor's exact document now records 108 occurrences over its original window (was 82 under the invalid pin; dataset revision also changed since, so the delta is not the defect alone). Read the split honestly: of 1,261 occurrences with a complete 24h horizon, 373 closed at or above +5% and 544 at or below -5%, and 1,010 of 1,267 drew down at least 5% within 24h. The population is dominated by small-cap pump symbols; what follows skews to give-back. Descriptive counts only; not advice."

Results since publicationHave new matches appeared, and what happened after them?

Armed as a standing alert (definition #3, linked 2026-07-27): the live alert watches for exactly this definition. It and this page compile to the same ID.

Outcome	Original study, 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-26	Since publication, from 2026-07-27
Traded 5% or more above the match within 1h	460 of 1,284 (35.8%) · 1 absent, not counted	loading
Closed 2% or more higher at 24h	442 of 1,261 (35.1%) · 24 absent, not counted	loading
Closed 2% or more lower at 24h	678 of 1,261 (53.8%) · 24 absent, not counted	loading

Both periods are counted the same way. The later period is the same search on data recorded after publication, not a preregistered test. A missing outcome is never counted as zero.

Matches by marketMost matches: ESPORTSUSDT 53 · HUSDT 42 · LABUSDT 42677 markets itemized

Find where this setup appeared. These are occurrence counts, not performance rankings. Outcomes for individual markets are not included in this saved report.

Find a marketShowing 25 of 677 itemized markets

ESPORTSUSDT5373,3817.2
HUSDT4273,3815.7
LABUSDT42103,6214.1
BTWUSDT4073,3815.5
EVAAUSDT34103,6213.3
SYNUSDT3473,3814.6
VELVETUSDT34103,6213.3
AKEUSDT25103,6212.4
BEATUSDT2473,3813.3
BANKUSDT22103,6212.1
HEIUSDT2273,3813.0
SKYAIUSDT2273,3813.0
USUSDT2173,3812.9
BSBUSDT2073,3812.7
CLOUSDT1973,3812.6
TLMUSDT1673,3812.2
DEXEUSDT1573,3812.0
RIFUSDT1573,3812.0
ALLOUSDT1473,3811.9
TACUSDT1473,3811.9
GUAUSDT1373,3811.8
MUSDT1273,3811.6
NFPUSDT1240,2613.0
SIRENUSDT1273,3811.6
BASUSDT1173,3811.5

Examples and replaysFirst 50 of 1,285 matches

Examples, never the denominator; the counts above cover every match. Replay opens 30 minutes before the moment.

Sort the 50 examples shown here. This does not sort all study matches.

Replay

ESPORTSUSDT2026-07-25 18:32+5.05%+6.44%−2.46%replay →