Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Every time the last 15-minute candle is a bullish engulfing, then the last 15 minutes returned 5% or more within 1 hour
82 historical matches·662 markets scanned·2026-07-11 to 2026-07-18
Integrity invalidated 2026-07-20. In this record_result.v2 pin, 32 of 50 visible sequence-step-1 evidence rows showed none or bearish instead of the required bullish value. The sequence evidence materialization used the final anchor bucket rather than each matched step bucket. That engine defect is fixed for new record_result.v4 scans. Do not use this pinned report as verified evidence. Corrected successor: q#3c0016a5 re-asks the same question over the full recorded corpus under record_result.v4.
Corrected successor: q#3c0016a5
At a glance
What the historical record shows
Usually lower after 30 minutes: 51 of 82 completed windows fell (62.2%). No reference rate is available, so no lift is claimed.
Share text
Scope: all scanned markets combined, no market or sector filter. Not a result for any one market, sector or asset class. Research coverage →
Results by time periodCompare 30 minutes, 1 hour and longer periods, including larger moves
Choose a time period. “Closed” measures the price at its end; high and low points measure prices reached along the way. No same-scope reference is pinned to this report, so no ratio is claimed.
30 minutesView outcomes and counts
| Outcome | After this setup | Reference minutes | How often vs reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed 2% or more higher | 19.5%16 of 82 | Not available | Not available |
| Closed 2% or more lower | 35.4%29 of 82 | Not available | Not available |
| Closed 5% or more higher | 8.5%7 of 82 | Not available | Not available |
| Closed 5% or more lower | 11.0%9 of 82 | Not available | Not available |
| High point 5% or more above | not in ladder | Not available | Not available |
| Low point 5% or more below | not in ladder | Not available | Not available |
1 hourView outcomes and counts
| Outcome | After this setup | Reference minutes | How often vs reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed 2% or more higher | not in ladder | Not available | Not available |
| Closed 2% or more lower | not in ladder | Not available | Not available |
| Closed 5% or more higher | not in ladder | Not available | Not available |
| Closed 5% or more lower | not in ladder | Not available | Not available |
| High point 5% or more above | 26.8%22 of 82 | Not available | Not available |
| Low point 5% or more below | 41.5%34 of 82 | Not available | Not available |
4 hours: Not included in this saved report.
24 hours: Not included in this saved report.
72 hours: Not included in this saved report.
7 days: Not included in this saved report.
Average and median returns are not available in this report. These frequencies alone do not establish profitability.
When did it happen, and how spread out were returns?Frequency over time and the distribution of 30-minute returns
Occurrences per day · UTC · sum 82
Each bar counts matching setups on one UTC day. Look for clusters: many examples from a short period may reflect the same market episode.
Where price ended after 30 minutes
These three groups cover every complete outcome, including the moves smaller than 2%. Bar length shows the share of matches, not the size of the price move.
Fell 2% or more35.4%
29 of 82 matchesBetween −2% and +2%45.1%
37 of 82 matchesRose 2% or more19.5%
16 of 82 matches0 incomplete outcomes excluded. This measures the price at 30 minutes, not the highest or lowest price reached on the way.
Detailed distribution: 10 return ranges
30-minute return distribution · 82 present · 0 absent. Each column counts outcomes in the labelled return range. The ranges have different widths; compare counts, not the shape as a probability density.
Examples and replaysFirst 50 of 82 matches
Examples, never the denominator; the counts above cover every match. Replay opens 30 minutes before the moment and depends on coverage and access.
Sort the 50 examples shown here. This does not sort all study matches.
Replay
TACUSDT2026-07-16 21:22−2.94%+2.10%−4.26%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05852126748501285 | sequence_step_2 |
ESPORTSUSDT2026-07-16 20:21+5.75%+7.75%−0.82%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.0548340548340549 | sequence_step_2 |
AKEUSDT2026-07-16 19:05+0.80%+2.47%−4.11%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05166760881854149 | sequence_step_2 |
SNXXUSDT2026-07-16 18:25−5.17%+0.26%−8.64%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05092911218169305 | sequence_step_2 |
GWEIUSDT2026-07-16 18:07−0.27%+2.99%−3.80%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06976744186046502 | sequence_step_2 |
ESPORTSUSDT2026-07-16 17:53−21.62%+1.08%−30.72%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.053058216654384704 | sequence_step_2 |
AKEUSDT2026-07-16 17:46−0.93%+23.31%−14.01%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.050961010433827614 | sequence_step_2 |
AKEUSDT2026-07-16 12:28+1.00%+2.64%−4.27%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.054222806441012183 | sequence_step_2 |
SYNUSDT2026-07-16 12:09−1.66%+0.29%−3.40%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05743095133713294 | sequence_step_2 |
COLLECTUSDT2026-07-16 08:39+2.11%+4.30%−0.57%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.055370246831220715 | sequence_step_2 |
USUSDT2026-07-16 02:56−3.89%+4.40%−17.31%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.17464678178963888 | sequence_step_2 |
DEXEUSDT2026-07-15 20:37+6.76%+9.90%−1.01%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05496507743698764 | sequence_step_2 |
SNXXUSDT2026-07-15 16:51+6.25%+12.27%−0.29%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05483672211953183 | sequence_step_2 |
AKEUSDT2026-07-15 15:27−0.05%+14.14%−12.21%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bearish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.1813391196528209 | sequence_step_2 |
BANKUSDT2026-07-15 15:21−1.29%+0.81%−5.42%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06973444151631858 | sequence_step_2 |
ALLOUSDT2026-07-15 15:20+3.70%+8.22%−0.90%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05101929278023731 | sequence_step_2 |
BANKUSDT2026-07-15 13:41+3.94%+7.04%−2.25%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05799728137743543 | sequence_step_2 |
CHILLGUYUSDT2026-07-15 13:01+0.54%+1.93%−1.21%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.050927793465106896 | sequence_step_2 |
USUSDT2026-07-15 11:49−0.55%+1.44%−2.99%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.0502355748638561 | sequence_step_2 |
EVAAUSDT2026-07-15 10:49−1.23%+4.20%−2.84%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.050057486512779636 | sequence_step_2 |
ESPORTSUSDT2026-07-15 10:03−4.35%−0.06%−5.58%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06717451523545703 | sequence_step_2 |
AKEUSDT2026-07-15 08:56−5.12%+8.62%−11.48%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06618390030313237 | sequence_step_2 |
EVAAUSDT2026-07-15 08:44+3.16%+10.32%−3.72%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05902463549522352 | sequence_step_2 |
ALPINEUSDT2026-07-15 08:35−5.76%+1.37%−7.72%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05206564799094515 | sequence_step_2 |
LABUSDT2026-07-15 07:36−2.00%+1.43%−6.09%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06211989574283239 | sequence_step_2 |
SPORTFUNUSDT2026-07-15 07:36−2.95%+24.17%−11.81%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.051406401551891356 | sequence_step_2 |
PIEVERSEUSDT2026-07-15 06:43−5.06%+0.05%−8.09%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06039025779803464 | sequence_step_2 |
AKEUSDT2026-07-15 05:52+27.03%+37.80%−1.51%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.07218975592987276 | sequence_step_2 |
EVAAUSDT2026-07-15 04:19−5.45%+2.75%−8.48%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.055878084179970866 | sequence_step_2 |
1000XECUSDT2026-07-15 03:32+6.51%+13.47%−0.53%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.053543307086614256 | sequence_step_2 |
USUSDT2026-07-15 02:51+0.13%+1.74%−1.84%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06252388595887792 | sequence_step_2 |
DODOXUSDT2026-07-14 22:46−0.87%+0.14%−3.75%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.0507321004791117 | sequence_step_2 |
ALPINEUSDT2026-07-14 18:47−3.13%+2.98%−6.31%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06329113924050644 | sequence_step_2 |
BASUSDT2026-07-14 16:16−0.09%+0.78%−1.59%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06006538264602779 | sequence_step_2 |
GWEIUSDT2026-07-14 15:30−1.56%+2.73%−3.32%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.0600414078674949 | sequence_step_2 |
LABUSDT2026-07-14 15:02−0.55%+1.66%−6.41%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06391347099311706 | sequence_step_2 |
CRWDUSDT2026-07-14 13:37+3.14%+3.99%+0.01%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05285310884969907 | sequence_step_2 |
BSBUSDT2026-07-14 13:28+0.77%+4.00%−2.47%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05143597789753729 | sequence_step_2 |
KORUUSDT2026-07-14 12:32+0.17%+3.12%−0.93%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05071752442387689 | sequence_step_2 |
EVAAUSDT2026-07-14 12:17+6.24%+9.72%−3.37%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05144725454370591 | sequence_step_2 |
AGTUSDT2026-07-14 11:45+1.57%+4.03%−1.02%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05077278636429283 | sequence_step_2 |
MUSDT2026-07-14 11:24−4.41%+1.12%−5.75%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.050470658922491474 | sequence_step_2 |
MAGMAUSDT2026-07-14 09:20+1.64%+8.21%−11.03%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05053711838753738 | sequence_step_2 |
FOLKSUSDT2026-07-14 08:31+0.89%+3.29%−0.42%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05613512170889212 | sequence_step_2 |
SXTUSDT2026-07-14 07:07−0.87%+1.38%−3.69%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bearish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.052145214521452043 | sequence_step_2 |
VELVETUSDT2026-07-14 05:59−1.79%+3.30%−6.50%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.050610539845758584 | sequence_step_2 |
LABUSDT2026-07-14 04:48−24.12%+4.72%−33.29%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.07016683022571146 | sequence_step_2 |
CYSUSDT2026-07-14 02:19−2.39%+0.57%−4.30%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.051187688190029945 | sequence_step_2 |
CLOUSDT2026-07-13 23:24+1.26%+4.40%−0.31%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05122620963923863 | sequence_step_2 |
HEIUSDT2026-07-13 21:50−2.77%+0.08%−3.76%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | none | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05113057649215724 | sequence_step_2 |
Evidence and methodologySetup definition, sample counts, data quality and reproducibility
Check the definition, counts, source limits and reproducibility below.
Published 2026-07-18 by @admin · q#ed3ac65e
The setup: the last 15-minute candle is a bullish engulfing, then the last 15 minutes returned 5% or more within 1 hour. What counts as one →
Readings in this definition: last 15-minute engulfing pattern · trailing 15-minute return. Each page states the exact rule, its limits and what it does not prove.
How the comparison works
Outcomes start when the full setup completes. Rates exclude incomplete outcomes at each horizon.
- 82
- matches
- 662
- markets
- 5,369,372
- eligible market-minutes scanned
- 2026-07-16
- last match
No same-scope reference rate is pinned to this report yet.
Technical audit: exact query, source counts and versions
Exact search
SCOPEtimes.anchor_time between 2026-07-11T07:06:45.000Z to 2026-07-18T07:06:45.000Z
These confirmed values define the run. Chips link to reading definitions; author commentary is separate.
Pinned result
v2 · nrm.v1 · ft.v1 · rev 3e792f17…397015e2 · q#ed3ac65e
This key identifies the saved answer. A run against newer data has a new revision and result.
Outcome diagnostics
Headline split (mfe_1h)
22 of 82 (26.8%) traded 5% or more above the match at some point within 1h (mfe_1h, a high-water mark and not a close). 60 of 82 did not. Measured forward from each match.
Peak day and span
Busiest day 2026-07-15: 20 of 82 matches (24.4%). 8 UTC days scanned: 6 with matches, 2 with none.
Present and absent by metric
fwd_ret_30m: present 82 · absent 0
mfe_1h: present 82 · absent 0
mae_1h: present 82 · absent 0
Absent: no completed outcome (record edge or missing minutes), excluded from every rate.
Threshold counts (fwd_ret_30m), both signs
≥ +121 OF 82
≥ +216 OF 82
≥ +57 OF 82
≥ +101 OF 82
≤ -137 OF 82
≤ -229 OF 82
≤ -59 OF 82
≤ -103 OF 82
Every row is an exact partial sum of the distribution buckets in the chart, so the table and the chart cannot disagree.
Methodology and versions
DEFINITION
2 steps · 1 scope
How this is counted
feature.candle_engulfing_15m = bullish THEN feature.ret_15m ≥ 0.05 WITHIN PT1H. the chips at the top of the page are this definition, verbatim.
EXECUTION
edge-triggered · 1m UTC grid
How this is counted
the predicate becomes true having been false; sequences chain greedy-earliest and anchor at completion; episode dedupe PT1H. deterministic at every worker count.
DENOMINATORS
5,369,372 of 6,672,960
How this is counted
eligible market-minutes scanned (one market for one minute) across 662 markets; 1,303,588 excluded where a measurement was not yet available - missing data shrinks the denominator, it never counts as zero; 15 market-days excluded by the source ledger. counts are matches within the scanned window, never a base rate.
OUTCOMES
forward from anchor · in-scan
How this is counted
closed threshold list ±1/2/5/10 pct, 10 fixed buckets across 3 forward metrics, computed over all occurrences pre-paging. an outcome absent at the record edge (horizon incomplete) is counted, never truncated or implied zero. nothing on this page is filterable by outcome. nothing here is a guarantee or trading advice.
OBSERVATION SCOPE
setup as-of anchor
How this is counted
setup values are as-of the anchor bucket close (point-in-time freeze); window aggregates cover their stated pre-anchor duration; every value the predicate consulted is at or before the anchor.
PIN
pinned 2026-07-18 · 82
How this is counted
the pinned result (counts, page-1 rows, outcomes, outcomes summary) never mutates. later dataset revisions are new runs, never merged.
SORT
times.anchor_time asc
How this is counted
the only record sort in v2.0; page limit 50. the pinned rows are page 1 of 82 - charts and rates derive from the summary over all occurrences, never from the page.
VERSIONS
q#ed3ac65e · rev 3e792f179546
How this is counted
schema research_query.v2 · normalization archive_normalization.v1 · features feature_defs.v1 · encoding record_result.v2. same key implies a byte-identical rerun.
DATASET REV · FULL
3e792f1795461fcf84a7f7aa3cb6b79cc132458a07f62cce576c6d79397015e2
Historical counts for choosing what to investigate next: not a forecast, trading advice or evidence of a profitable trade.