Every time the last 15-minute candle is a bullish engulfing, then the last 15 minutes returned 5% or more within 1 hour
1,285 matches·all scanned symbols·2026-05-15 to 2026-07-26
More often lower: 727 of the 1,284 completed matches fell over the next 30 minutes (56.6%).
1,285 matches in 47,227,702 eligible market-minutes across 677 markets.
No reference rate is pinned to this report yet; republishing after the baseline ships will pin one.
"Successor to q#ed3ac65e, invalidated 2026-07-20: its record_result.v2 pin materialized sequence-step evidence from the final anchor bucket, so step-1 rows could show the wrong bucket's values. The engine defect is fixed; this pin carries per-step evidence under record_result.v4. This successor asks the same question over the full recorded corpus (2026-05-15 to 2026-07-26) rather than the predecessor's 7-day window. Rerun on the current engine, the predecessor's exact document now records 108 occurrences over its original window (was 82 under the invalid pin; dataset revision also changed since, so the delta is not the defect alone). Read the split honestly: of 1,261 occurrences with a complete 24h horizon, 373 closed at or above +5% and 544 at or below -5%, and 1,010 of 1,267 drew down at least 5% within 24h. The population is dominated by small-cap pump symbols; what follows skews to give-back. Descriptive counts only; not advice."
What the record shows
460 of the 1,284 (35.8%) traded 5% or more above the match at some point inside 1h. That is a high-water mark, not a close. Matches appeared on 60 of the 73 UTC days scanned; the busiest day was 2026-06-07, with 49 of the 1,285 matches.
Evidence and methodologyExact search, pin, freshness, missing data and versions
Published 2026-07-27 by @admin · q#3c0016a5
Exact search
Every time the last 15-minute candle is a bullish engulfing, then the last 15 minutes returned 5% or more within 1 hour
Read-only. Every value above was confirmed by the author before the run. The prose on this page is commentary; these values are the research.
Outcome diagnostics
Methodology and versions
Where it happenedESPORTSUSDT: 53 of 73,381 minutes · HUSDT: 42 of 73,381 minutes · LABUSDT: 42 of 103,621 minutes677 markets itemized
Each row prints its own denominator: matches on that market, over the market-minutes actually scanned there. What followed is summarized above over ALL matches; the pinned result carries no per-market outcome summary, so none is claimed here.
Examples and replaysFirst 50 of 1,285 matches
These rows are examples, never the denominator. The counts and charts above cover every match. Each row opens 30 minutes before the recorded moment.
ESPORTSUSDT2026-07-25 18:32+5.05%+6.44%−2.46%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05298840321141829 | sequence_step_2 |
EULUSDT2026-07-25 18:04+5.46%+5.93%−0.03%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05483697116680153 | sequence_step_2 |
ESPORTSUSDT2026-07-25 16:30+4.30%+6.08%−0.72%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06947538991290259 | sequence_step_2 |
DEXEUSDT2026-07-25 14:34+7.87%+9.30%−9.07%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.057618726085977956 | sequence_step_2 |
DEXEUSDT2026-07-25 12:45−3.20%+10.71%−6.89%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.08009211873080857 | sequence_step_2 |
ONUSDT2026-07-25 11:52+6.91%+12.77%−0.69%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.053422904670505256 | sequence_step_2 |
ESPORTSUSDT2026-07-25 11:17−2.86%+7.36%−7.56%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05125523012552291 | sequence_step_2 |
STARUSDT2026-07-25 11:03−1.55%+1.19%−2.40%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.07462686567164178 | sequence_step_2 |
HANAUSDT2026-07-25 09:08+11.13%+15.98%−0.39%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.0621662852784135 | sequence_step_2 |
ONUSDT2026-07-25 09:04−3.03%+2.84%−13.58%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05166617947968444 | sequence_step_2 |
PROMUSDT2026-07-25 08:17−2.69%+10.00%−7.87%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05686695278969944 | sequence_step_2 |
EULUSDT2026-07-25 08:03−8.47%+0.03%−10.90%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05569602472257351 | sequence_step_2 |
LUMIAUSDT2026-07-25 07:35−3.21%+2.02%−4.83%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05325443786982231 | sequence_step_2 |
AKEUSDT2026-07-25 05:53+6.07%+11.89%−1.00%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06629341701733105 | sequence_step_2 |
GWEIUSDT2026-07-25 04:21−2.44%+2.89%−5.89%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06021897810218979 | sequence_step_2 |
DEXEUSDT2026-07-25 04:17−9.15%+5.96%−18.65%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.0843297671491503 | sequence_step_2 |
DEXEUSDT2026-07-25 03:05+1.63%+13.83%−0.87%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05053191489361697 | sequence_step_2 |
DEXEUSDT2026-07-25 00:00+3.51%+9.94%−1.75%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.050420168067226934 | sequence_step_2 |
ACEUSDT2026-07-24 21:47+2.16%+3.07%−3.16%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05317987895624565 | sequence_step_2 |
ONUSDT2026-07-24 21:34−4.87%+2.01%−5.44%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.053893866299103976 | sequence_step_2 |
DEXEUSDT2026-07-24 21:16−3.55%+0.00%−11.14%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.052800466744457486 | sequence_step_2 |
ACEUSDT2026-07-24 17:30−2.50%+0.96%−8.45%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06007827788649722 | sequence_step_2 |
FLUIDUSDT2026-07-24 13:58−2.87%+0.42%−4.47%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06182795698924726 | sequence_step_2 |
HANAUSDT2026-07-24 12:39+0.50%+1.92%−0.53%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05046439628482968 | sequence_step_2 |
ESPORTSUSDT2026-07-24 12:10−1.24%+2.07%−2.14%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.056433957674531854 | sequence_step_2 |
AKEUSDT2026-07-24 10:30+2.91%+11.41%−1.70%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05067332487413534 | sequence_step_2 |
ONUSDT2026-07-24 09:52−3.43%+2.29%−9.50%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05660474983184138 | sequence_step_2 |
ORDERUSDT2026-07-24 09:37+0.58%+2.93%−2.30%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05085730892182494 | sequence_step_2 |
VANRYUSDT2026-07-24 09:18−2.09%+3.09%−2.56%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06922234392113924 | sequence_step_2 |
TAIKOUSDT2026-07-24 07:01−0.71%+3.97%−3.34%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06685756972111556 | sequence_step_2 |
BANKUSDT2026-07-24 06:45+2.81%+8.03%−1.40%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06737168755869494 | sequence_step_2 |
AKEUSDT2026-07-24 06:18−6.30%+4.80%−14.28%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.06829814459373007 | sequence_step_2 |
SWARMSUSDT2026-07-24 04:14−1.78%+0.15%−3.48%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05440187189236623 | sequence_step_2 |
AGTUSDT2026-07-24 04:12−0.90%+1.06%−5.38%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05709542370434528 | sequence_step_2 |
DEXEUSDT2026-07-24 04:02+5.65%+10.11%−0.40%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05041518386714117 | sequence_step_2 |
RIFUSDT2026-07-24 03:40+5.91%+7.58%−2.71%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05009944123496557 | sequence_step_2 |
ZHIPUUSDT2026-07-24 01:49+5.27%+8.21%−0.72%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.050502948317724616 | sequence_step_2 |
BROCCOLIF3BUSDT2026-07-24 00:24−4.77%−0.10%−5.33%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.07027522935779817 | sequence_step_2 |
RIFUSDT2026-07-23 21:46+0.19%+6.01%−7.58%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.07306889352818358 | sequence_step_2 |
ESPORTSUSDT2026-07-23 20:17+8.32%+18.23%−0.70%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.057776284850520554 | sequence_step_2 |
AKEUSDT2026-07-23 20:09+5.81%+7.22%−2.30%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.08557815649624345 | sequence_step_2 |
MVLLUSDT2026-07-23 20:04+0.33%+1.41%−0.63%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.051522248243559776 | sequence_step_2 |
SOXLUSDT2026-07-23 20:04+0.86%+1.79%−0.49%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05490783560216239 | sequence_step_2 |
INTCUSDT2026-07-23 20:01+5.31%+8.29%−3.59%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05125125125125107 | sequence_step_2 |
LAUSDT2026-07-23 18:49−3.08%+3.75%−4.67%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05211224175146456 | sequence_step_2 |
BUSDT2026-07-23 17:53−3.46%+5.43%−5.43%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.10399529964747378 | sequence_step_2 |
RIFUSDT2026-07-23 16:52−4.42%+1.18%−12.62%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.07364858847626676 | sequence_step_2 |
RIFUSDT2026-07-23 15:46+1.81%+5.57%−1.47%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.0611089418196018 | sequence_step_2 |
RIFUSDT2026-07-23 14:01+3.10%+13.84%−0.95%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.057202408522464054 | sequence_step_2 |
B2USDT2026-07-23 13:58−1.70%+1.52%−2.69%replay →
| FIELD | OP | QUERY | OBSERVED | SCOPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.candle_engulfing_15m | eq | "bullish" | bullish | sequence_step_1 |
| feature.ret_15m | between | {"gte":0.05} | 0.05269645608628659 | sequence_step_2 |
What happened after publicationThe same study on new data, refreshed hourly
ARMED AS A STANDING ALERT (definition #3, linked 2026-07-27): the live alert watches for exactly this definition - it and this page compile to the same ID.
Forward outcomes are observed counts of the period after publication, refreshed hourly from the same deterministic document. Horizons complete on their own clock; a pending horizon is counted as pending, never as zero. Nothing here is a guarantee or trading advice.
These are counts of what happened in the scanned window, not a promise it happens again. Nothing here is trading advice.