When shorts are paying heavy funding just before settlement, does price fall?
105 historical matches·677 markets scanned·2026-05-15 to 2026-07-26
At a glance
What the historical record shows
Usually lower after 30 minutes: 67 of 105 completed windows fell (63.8%). No reference rate is available, so no lift is claimed.
Use this to decide what to investigate next. These historical frequencies do not establish a profitable trade.
Share text
Which markets does this cover?
All markets scanned by this study. No market or sector filter.
Results combine 677 scanned markets. They do not establish the outcome for an individual market or sector.
Asset-class and sector breakdowns are not included in this saved result. See research coverage →
Explore market coverage ↓What is this report for?
Test a market observation against recorded history, compare what followed with the reference rate, then inspect examples before pursuing the idea.
Understand the setup and method ↓Results by time periodCompare 30 minutes, 1 hour and longer periods, including larger moves
Choose a time period. “Closed” measures the price at its end; high and low points measure prices reached along the way. No same-scope reference is pinned to this report, so no ratio is claimed.
30 minutesView outcomes and counts
| Outcome | After this setup | Reference minutes | How often vs reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed 2% or more higher | 10.5%11 of 105 | Not available | Not available |
| Closed 2% or more lower | 25.7%27 of 105 | Not available | Not available |
| Closed 5% or more higher | 6.7%7 of 105 | Not available | Not available |
| Closed 5% or more lower | 10.5%11 of 105 | Not available | Not available |
| High point 5% or more above | 17.1%18 of 105 | Not available | Not available |
| Low point 5% or more below | 16.2%17 of 105 | Not available | Not available |
1 hour1 incomplete outcomes excluded
| Outcome | After this setup | Reference minutes | How often vs reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed 2% or more higher | 14.4%15 of 104 | Not available | Not available |
| Closed 2% or more lower | 42.3%44 of 104 | Not available | Not available |
| Closed 5% or more higher | 8.7%9 of 104 | Not available | Not available |
| Closed 5% or more lower | 26.0%27 of 104 | Not available | Not available |
| High point 5% or more above | 25.7%27 of 105 | Not available | Not available |
| Low point 5% or more below | 36.2%38 of 105 | Not available | Not available |
4 hoursView outcomes and counts
| Outcome | After this setup | Reference minutes | How often vs reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed 2% or more higher | 13.3%14 of 105 | Not available | Not available |
| Closed 2% or more lower | 56.2%59 of 105 | Not available | Not available |
| Closed 5% or more higher | 6.7%7 of 105 | Not available | Not available |
| Closed 5% or more lower | 37.1%39 of 105 | Not available | Not available |
| High point 5% or more above | 36.2%38 of 105 | Not available | Not available |
| Low point 5% or more below | 62.9%66 of 105 | Not available | Not available |
24 hours2 incomplete outcomes excluded
| Outcome | After this setup | Reference minutes | How often vs reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed 2% or more higher | 16.5%17 of 103 | Not available | Not available |
| Closed 2% or more lower | 79.6%82 of 103 | Not available | Not available |
| Closed 5% or more higher | 14.6%15 of 103 | Not available | Not available |
| Closed 5% or more lower | 69.9%72 of 103 | Not available | Not available |
| High point 5% or more above | 55.2%58 of 105 | Not available | Not available |
| Low point 5% or more below | 88.6%93 of 105 | Not available | Not available |
72 hours: Not included in this saved report.
7 days: Not included in this saved report.
Average and median returns are not available in this report. These frequencies alone do not establish profitability.
When did it happen, and how spread out were returns?Frequency over time and the distribution of 30-minute returns
Occurrences per day · UTC · sum 105
Each bar counts matching setups on one UTC day. Look for clusters: many examples from a short period may reflect the same market episode.
Where price ended after 30 minutes
These three groups cover every complete outcome, including the moves smaller than 2%. Bar length shows the share of matches, not the size of the price move.
Fell 2% or more25.7%
27 of 105 matchesBetween −2% and +2%63.8%
67 of 105 matchesRose 2% or more10.5%
11 of 105 matches0 incomplete outcomes excluded. This measures the price at 30 minutes, not the highest or lowest price reached on the way.
Detailed distribution: 14 return ranges
30-minute return distribution · 105 present · 0 absent. Each column counts outcomes in the labelled return range. The ranges have different widths; compare counts, not the shape as a probability density.
Results since publicationHave new matches appeared, and what happened after them?
| Outcome | Original study, 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-26 | Since publication, from 2026-07-30 |
|---|---|---|
| Traded 5% or more above the match within 1h | 27 of 105 (25.7%) | loading |
| Closed 2% or more higher at 24h | 17 of 103 (16.5%) · 2 absent, not counted | loading |
| Closed 2% or more lower at 24h | 82 of 103 (79.6%) · 2 absent, not counted | loading |
Both periods are counted the same way. The later period is the same search on data recorded after publication, not a preregistered test. A missing outcome is never counted as zero.
Matches by marketMost matches: ESPORTSUSDT 6 · HUSDT 6 · LABUSDT 6677 markets itemized
Find where this setup appeared. These are occurrence counts, not performance rankings. Outcomes for individual markets are not included in this saved report.
Showing 25 of 677 itemized markets
- ESPORTSUSDT673,4400.8
- HUSDT673,4400.8
- LABUSDT6103,6800.6
- MIRAUSDT573,4400.7
- DODOXUSDT473,4400.5
- HOTUSDT473,4400.5
- SPELLUSDT473,4400.5
- STGUSDT473,4400.5
- ASTRUSDT373,4400.4
- DEXEUSDT373,4400.4
- HOMEUSDT373,4400.4
- POWRUSDT373,4400.4
- AGLDUSDT273,4400.3
- AKEUSDT2103,6800.2
- BREVUSDT273,4400.3
- FIDAUSDT273,4400.3
- GUAUSDT273,4400.3
- GWEIUSDT273,4400.3
- HEIUSDT273,4400.3
- HIGHUSDT210,0802.0
- IDUSDT273,4400.3
- LAUSDT273,4400.3
- NFPUSDT240,3200.5
- ONEUSDT273,4400.3
- SKLUSDT273,4400.3
Examples and replaysFirst 50 of 105 matches
Examples, never the denominator; the counts above cover every match. Replay opens 30 minutes before the moment.
Sort the 50 examples shown here. This does not sort all study matches.
Replay
GWEIUSDT2026-07-25 08:00−1.08%+6.47%−2.64%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01079454 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 0 | setup_point_in_time |
AKEUSDT2026-07-24 23:30−1.56%+2.22%−3.22%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01159231 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
AKEUSDT2026-07-24 16:00+8.88%+14.84%−2.45%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01038941 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 0 | setup_point_in_time |
BARDUSDT2026-07-23 15:30−0.47%+0.31%−1.18%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01264198 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
OUSDT2026-07-23 08:00+1.94%+3.79%−1.99%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.0127403 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 0 | setup_point_in_time |
DEXEUSDT2026-07-23 07:30−2.42%+1.03%−4.12%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01255142 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
ONEUSDT2026-07-22 23:30+1.23%+1.93%−0.23%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01054059 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
MIRAUSDT2026-07-22 16:00−1.88%+3.32%−4.17%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01318797 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 0 | setup_point_in_time |
ONEUSDT2026-07-22 16:00+0.00%+1.38%−1.76%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01054059 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 0 | setup_point_in_time |
DEXEUSDT2026-07-22 15:30−3.15%+3.08%−6.54%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01254096 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
RIFUSDT2026-07-22 15:30−2.19%+7.82%−4.11%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01137721 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
DODOXUSDT2026-07-22 07:30−2.36%+1.52%−11.63%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01002686 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
MIRAUSDT2026-07-22 07:30−1.91%+0.89%−2.68%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01474476 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
DODOXUSDT2026-07-21 23:30+0.29%+1.40%−2.46%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01416999 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
DODOXUSDT2026-07-21 16:00−1.64%+0.42%−2.54%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01125883 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 0 | setup_point_in_time |
ERAUSDT2026-07-21 15:30−0.45%+1.71%−5.63%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01376122 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
LAUSDT2026-07-21 15:30−1.48%+0.03%−2.33%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01066134 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
DEXEUSDT2026-07-21 08:00+8.98%+13.58%−27.94%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.02 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 0 | setup_point_in_time |
ESPORTSUSDT2026-07-19 16:00−2.89%+13.80%−5.17%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.02 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 0 | setup_point_in_time |
ESPORTSUSDT2026-07-19 08:00+5.17%+7.93%−1.53%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01030709 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 0 | setup_point_in_time |
HOMEUSDT2026-07-18 07:30+1.30%+3.17%−1.30%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01168283 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
HOMEUSDT2026-07-17 08:00−5.58%+0.97%−11.15%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01615827 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 0 | setup_point_in_time |
DODOXUSDT2026-07-13 15:30+1.43%+5.27%−3.21%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01645289 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
1000XECUSDT2026-07-13 08:00−7.99%+0.11%−10.91%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.02 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 0 | setup_point_in_time |
HOTUSDT2026-07-13 07:30−0.03%+0.50%−0.53%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01285724 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
SXTUSDT2026-07-11 23:30−0.65%+0.00%−3.75%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.0143356 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
TUSDT2026-07-11 16:00−1.46%+0.25%−8.46%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.02 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 0 | setup_point_in_time |
SKLUSDT2026-07-10 15:30+3.42%+6.39%−0.33%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01065557 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
SKLUSDT2026-07-10 08:00−1.50%+2.42%−6.46%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01053011 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 0 | setup_point_in_time |
THEUSDT2026-07-09 15:30−2.32%+0.10%−3.52%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01434489 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
SPELLUSDT2026-07-08 23:30+1.69%+1.80%−0.84%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01597804 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
SPELLUSDT2026-07-08 15:30−2.82%+0.09%−8.83%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01349745 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
SPELLUSDT2026-07-08 07:30−0.67%+1.63%−4.51%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01773157 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
EPICUSDT2026-07-07 23:30+1.00%+3.68%−1.15%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.02 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
LABUSDT2026-07-07 23:30−1.35%+18.07%−3.82%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01059584 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
BLURUSDT2026-07-07 15:30−1.10%+4.05%−8.39%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01476906 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
LABUSDT2026-07-07 15:30−1.25%+5.29%−16.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01684592 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
LABUSDT2026-07-07 08:00−5.18%+0.76%−12.02%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01050053 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 0 | setup_point_in_time |
HOTUSDT2026-07-05 23:30−0.44%+0.57%−5.07%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01091003 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
HOTUSDT2026-07-05 15:30+1.21%+3.93%−2.15%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01276875 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
HOTUSDT2026-07-05 07:30−3.95%+0.07%−10.31%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01133639 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
MIRAUSDT2026-07-05 07:30+0.33%+3.21%−1.01%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01782791 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
SLXUSDT2026-07-04 23:30−0.15%+3.89%−4.92%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.0119076 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
GWEIUSDT2026-07-04 16:00−1.23%+2.77%−4.38%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.02 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 0 | setup_point_in_time |
VANRYUSDT2026-07-04 16:00+1.12%+8.46%−10.38%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.02 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 0 | setup_point_in_time |
MIRAUSDT2026-07-04 07:30+0.78%+2.53%−0.58%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01694671 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
ZKPUSDT2026-07-03 15:30+0.62%+3.34%−1.83%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.0100541 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
MIRAUSDT2026-07-03 07:30+0.44%+2.54%−0.57%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01176081 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
BREVUSDT2026-07-02 15:30+0.81%+1.89%−4.27%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01090226 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 30 | setup_point_in_time |
BREVUSDT2026-07-02 08:00+1.47%+14.51%−3.56%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.funding_rate | between | {"lte":-0.01} | -0.01162589 | setup_point_in_time |
| feature.mins_to_funding | between | {"lte":30} | 0 | setup_point_in_time |
Evidence and methodologySetup definition, sample counts, data quality and reproducibility
Use this section to check the setup rules, what was counted and the limits of the source data. The exact query and audit counts are available below.
Published 2026-07-30 by @admin · q#945e12a2
The setup: funding is expensive for shorts and funding settlement is close.
Readings in this definition: funding rate · Minutes until funding settles. Each page states the exact rule, its limits and what it does not prove.
How the comparison works
Each match is measured from the moment the full setup completes. Rates use only matches with a complete outcome at that time period.
- 105
- matches
- 677
- markets
- 47,223,625
- eligible market-minutes scanned
- 2026-07-25
- last match
No same-scope reference rate is pinned to this report yet.
Technical audit: exact query, source counts and versions
Exact search
SCOPEtimes.anchor_time between 2026-05-15T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z
These values are what ran, confirmed by the author before the run. Prose on this page is commentary. A chip links to the page that defines its reading.
Pinned result
v2 · nrm.v1 · ft.v1 · rev 476ab0c0…feae95e4 · q#945e12a2
This ID reruns to the same answer on any day and any account. It never changes; the record grows nightly and a rerun publishes as a new labeled result.
Outcome diagnostics
Headline split (mfe_1h)
27 of 105 (25.7%) traded 5% or more above the match at some point within 1h (mfe_1h, a high-water mark and not a close). 78 of 105 did not. Measured forward from each match.
Peak day and span
Busiest day 2026-07-22: 7 of 105 matches (6.7%). 73 UTC days scanned: 43 with matches, 30 with none.
Present and absent by metric
fwd_ret_30m: present 105 · absent 0
mfe_1h: present 105 · absent 0
mae_1h: present 105 · absent 0
Absent: no completed outcome (record edge or missing minutes), excluded from every rate.
Threshold counts (fwd_ret_30m), both signs
≥ +125 OF 105
≥ +211 OF 105
≥ +57 OF 105
≥ +101 OF 105
≥ +151 OF 105
≥ +201 OF 105
≤ -148 OF 105
≤ -227 OF 105
≤ -511 OF 105
≤ -101 OF 105
≤ -151 OF 105
≤ -200 OF 105
Every row is an exact partial sum of the distribution buckets in the chart, so the table and the chart cannot disagree.
Methodology and versions
DEFINITION
2 clauses · 1 scope
How this is counted
feature.funding_rate ≤ -0.01 · feature.mins_to_funding ≤ 30. the chips at the top of the page are this definition, verbatim.
EXECUTION
edge-triggered · 1m UTC grid
How this is counted
the predicate becomes true having been false; sequences chain greedy-earliest and anchor at completion; episode dedupe PT1H. deterministic at every worker count.
DENOMINATORS
47,223,625 of 70,192,037
How this is counted
eligible market-minutes scanned (one market for one minute) across 677 markets; 22,968,412 excluded where a measurement was not yet available - missing data shrinks the denominator, it never counts as zero; 15786 market-days excluded by the source ledger. counts are matches within the scanned window, never a base rate.
OUTCOMES
forward from anchor · in-scan
How this is counted
closed threshold list ±1/2/5/10/15/20 pct, 14 fixed buckets across 12 forward metrics, computed over all occurrences pre-paging. an outcome absent at the record edge (horizon incomplete) is counted, never truncated or implied zero. nothing on this page is filterable by outcome. nothing here is a guarantee or trading advice.
OBSERVATION SCOPE
setup as-of anchor
How this is counted
setup values are as-of the anchor bucket close (point-in-time freeze); window aggregates cover their stated pre-anchor duration; every value the predicate consulted is at or before the anchor.
PIN
pinned 2026-07-30 · 105
How this is counted
the pinned result (counts, page-1 rows, outcomes, outcomes summary) never mutates. later dataset revisions are new runs, never merged.
SORT
times.anchor_time asc
How this is counted
the only record sort in v2.0; page limit 50. the pinned rows are page 1 of 105 - charts and rates derive from the summary over all occurrences, never from the page.
VERSIONS
q#945e12a2 · rev 476ab0c0fcca
How this is counted
schema research_query.v2 · normalization archive_normalization.v1 · features feature_defs.v1 · encoding record_result.v5. same key implies a byte-identical rerun.
DATASET REV · FULL
476ab0c0fcca05990c819d35b5b06f1f8692036a90d2b883a170d66dfeae95e4
These are counts of what happened in the scanned window, not a promise it happens again. Nothing here is trading advice.