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AKE's pre-338% readings on 70 alpha coins, in the month they came from: did big moves follow more often than on an ordinary minute?

14,197 historical matches·70 markets scanned·2026-08-05 to 2026-09-04

At a glance

A down lean.

Price change 30 minutes after the setup completed.

Fell 2% or more4.6%654 of 14,098 matches3.2% of reference minutes · 1.4x as often95,435 of 2,975,508 minutes

Rose 2% or more5.2%729 of 14,098 matches3.6% of reference minutes · 1.4x as often108,404 of 2,975,508 minutes

Reference: every eligible minute in the same markets and dates, with no setup filter. 99 matches without a complete outcome are left out.

▸ Replay one Edit this question →Check newer evidence ↓

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AKE's pre-338% readings on 70 alpha coins, in the month they came from: did big moves follow more often than on an ordinary minute?

14,197 matches · 70 markets · 2026-08-05 to 2026-09-04 UTC

A down lean.

Price at 30 minutes after the completed setup. 99 incomplete outcomes excluded.

Closed 2% or more lower: 4.6% (654 of 14,098). Reference: 3.2% (95,435 of 2,975,508).

Closed 2% or more higher: 5.2% (729 of 14,098). Reference: 3.6% (108,404 of 2,975,508).

Reference: all eligible minutes in the same markets and dates, without a setup filter; not a matched control.

Historical evidence, not a trading return or prediction.

Read the evidence and edit the question: https://edgedepth.com/research/reports/featurebookimbalancepctrank-005-featurecascadeclusteringindex-05-feature-fd440869?utm_source=report-share&utm_medium=peer-share

Scope: Market in 4usdt, acuusdt, aiausdt, aiousdt, akeusdt, aprusdt, ariausdt, atusdt, basedusdt, basusdt, beatusdt, billusdt, birbusdt, blessusdt, bluaiusdt, bsbusdt, bullausdt, carvusdt, clankerusdt, clousdt, coaiusdt, collectusdt, cysusdt, doodusdt, elsausdt, espusdt, fightusdt, folksusdt, geniususdt, guausdt, gweiusdt, hanausdt, inusdt, inxusdt, irysusdt, jctusdt, jellyjellyusdt, kgenusdt, labusdt, lynusdt, magmausdt, nightusdt, onusdt, opgusdt, pharosusdt, pieverseusdt, powerusdt, prlusdt, ptbusdt, qusdt, raveusdt, reusdt, riverusdt, robousdt, sapienusdt, sirenusdt, skrusdt, spaceusdt, sportfunusdt, stableusdt, starusdt, tradoorusdt, triausdt, truthusdt, uaiusdt, ubusdt, ususdt, wetusdt, xnyusdt, xpinusdt, markets combined. Not a result for any one market, sector or asset class. Matches by market ↓ · Research coverage →

Results by time periodCompare 30 minutes, 1 hour and longer periods, including larger moves

Choose a time period. “Closed” measures the price at its end; high and low points measure prices reached along the way. Reference rates use all eligible minutes in the same markets and date range.

30 minutes99 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	5.2%729 of 14,098	3.6%108,404 of 2,975,508	1.4x
Closed 2% or more lower	4.6%654 of 14,098	3.2%95,435 of 2,975,508	1.4x
Closed 5% or more higher	0.9%132 of 14,098	0.6%18,212 of 2,975,508	1.5x
Closed 5% or more lower	1.1%160 of 14,098	0.7%19,599 of 2,975,508	1.7x
High point 5% or more above	2.5%348 of 14,150	1.5%45,657 of 2,998,959	1.6x
Low point 5% or more below	2.5%347 of 14,150	1.5%45,613 of 2,998,959	1.6x

1 hour97 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	8.6%1,218 of 14,100	6.5%192,842 of 2,975,796	1.3x
Closed 2% or more lower	7.9%1,118 of 14,100	5.7%170,832 of 2,975,796	1.4x
Closed 5% or more higher	2.0%275 of 14,100	1.3%38,769 of 2,975,796	1.5x
Closed 5% or more lower	2.1%290 of 14,100	1.3%38,889 of 2,975,796	1.6x
High point 5% or more above	4.7%670 of 14,150	3.2%94,789 of 2,998,959	1.5x
Low point 5% or more below	4.7%659 of 14,150	3.0%88,737 of 2,998,959	1.6x

4 hours93 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	19.6%2,768 of 14,104	16.3%484,439 of 2,975,359	1.2x
Closed 2% or more lower	19.8%2,796 of 14,104	15.6%463,967 of 2,975,359	1.3x
Closed 5% or more higher	6.5%914 of 14,104	4.7%140,794 of 2,975,359	1.4x
Closed 5% or more lower	6.7%940 of 14,104	4.4%130,227 of 2,975,359	1.5x
High point 5% or more above	15.5%2,196 of 14,150	11.6%346,524 of 2,998,959	1.3x
Low point 5% or more below	14.8%2,098 of 14,150	10.1%303,611 of 2,998,959	1.5x

24 hours111 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	33.7%4,754 of 14,086	31.3%931,006 of 2,975,357	1.1x
Closed 2% or more lower	35.9%5,062 of 14,086	33.4%993,495 of 2,975,357	1.1x
Closed 5% or more higher	20.1%2,829 of 14,086	16.1%479,071 of 2,975,357	1.2x
Closed 5% or more lower	20.5%2,892 of 14,086	16.4%486,780 of 2,975,357	1.3x
High point 5% or more above	48.0%6,790 of 14,150	41.0%1,228,797 of 2,998,959	1.2x
Low point 5% or more below	43.5%6,149 of 14,150	36.1%1,083,284 of 2,998,959	1.2x

72 hours113 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	40.1%5,642 of 14,084	38.2%1,135,908 of 2,974,505	1.0x
Closed 2% or more lower	41.1%5,786 of 14,084	40.1%1,192,387 of 2,974,505	1.0x
Closed 5% or more higher	29.0%4,090 of 14,084	25.1%746,256 of 2,974,505	1.2x
Closed 5% or more lower	30.7%4,317 of 14,084	27.4%815,128 of 2,974,505	1.1x
High point 5% or more above	69.0%9,766 of 14,150	64.3%1,929,724 of 2,998,959	1.1x
Low point 5% or more below	63.4%8,966 of 14,150	58.0%1,740,492 of 2,998,959	1.1x

7 days101 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	39.8%5,607 of 14,096	39.3%1,170,056 of 2,974,548	1.0x
Closed 2% or more lower	48.1%6,786 of 14,096	45.8%1,362,384 of 2,974,548	1.1x
Closed 5% or more higher	31.4%4,432 of 14,096	29.1%866,038 of 2,974,548	1.1x
Closed 5% or more lower	38.8%5,474 of 14,096	35.2%1,047,238 of 2,974,548	1.1x
High point 5% or more above	82.2%11,629 of 14,150	79.2%2,375,743 of 2,998,959	1.0x
Low point 5% or more below	77.3%10,931 of 14,150	72.8%2,182,222 of 2,998,959	1.1x

Average and median returns are not available in this report. These frequencies alone do not establish profitability.

When did it happen, and how spread out were returns?Frequency over time and the distribution of 30-minute returns

Occurrences per day · UTC · sum 14,197

Each bar counts matching setups on one UTC day. Look for clusters: many examples from a short period may reflect the same market episode.

Where price ended after 30 minutes

These three groups cover every complete outcome, including the moves smaller than 2%. Bar length shows the share of matches, not the size of the price move.

Fell 2% or more4.6%

654 of 14,098 matches

Between −2% and +2%90.2%

12,715 of 14,098 matches

Rose 2% or more5.2%

729 of 14,098 matches

99 incomplete outcomes excluded. This measures the price at 30 minutes, not the highest or lowest price reached on the way.

Detailed distribution: 28 return ranges

30-minute return distribution · 14,098 present · 99 absent. Each column counts outcomes in the labelled return range. The ranges have different widths; compare counts, not the shape as a probability density.

Author's noteOpinion, not machine output

"In-sample companion to report e0678e65. The same definition over 5 Aug to 4 Sep 2026, the month that includes AKE/USDT's 338% rise on 2 Sep, from which the readings were taken, so this result is not a test of the idea. Report e0678e65 is the held-out test for 4 Sep to 11 Oct 2026."

Representatives, drawn: the line the detector counted at each

Best 30m · BLUAIUSDT 2026-08-10 17:32+37.35% over 30m

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

Worst 30m · BLUAIUSDT 2026-08-11 13:24-44.32% over 30m

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

Median 30m · ACUUSDT 2026-08-25 04:34-0.01% over 30m

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

Worst 1h adverse · BLUAIUSDT 2026-08-11 13:24-49.51% worst 1h

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

Biggest 24h run · AKEUSDT 2026-09-02 10:21+431.44% best within 24h

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

Biggest 7d run · BULLAUSDT 2026-09-02 12:54+571.20% best within 7d

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

Results since publicationHave new matches appeared, and what happened after them?

Outcome	Original study, 2026-08-05 to 2026-09-04	Since publication, from 2026-10-11
Traded 5% or more above the match within 1h	670 of 14,150 (4.7%) · 47 absent, not counted	loading
Closed 2% or more higher at 24h	4,754 of 14,086 (33.7%) · 111 absent, not counted	loading
Closed 2% or more lower at 24h	5,062 of 14,086 (35.9%) · 111 absent, not counted	loading

Both periods are counted the same way. The later period is the same search on data recorded after publication, not a preregistered test. A missing outcome is never counted as zero.

Matches by marketMost matches: BSBUSDT 562 · CYSUSDT 526 · ACUUSDT 51770 markets itemized

Find where this setup appeared. These are occurrence counts, not performance rankings. Outcomes for individual markets are not included in this saved report.

Find a marketShowing 25 of 70 itemized markets

BSBUSDT56243,201130.1
CYSUSDT52643,201121.8
ACUUSDT51743,201119.7
PIEVERSEUSDT49743,201115.0
BULLAUSDT49443,201114.3
INXUSDT49243,201113.9
4USDT47643,201110.2
BEATUSDT46943,201108.6
CLOUSDT46043,201106.5
BLUAIUSDT42543,20198.4
QUSDT39743,20191.9
STARUSDT38843,20189.8
SKRUSDT38443,20188.9
JCTUSDT35543,20182.2
BILLUSDT35043,20181.0
ARIAUSDT33843,20178.2
SIRENUSDT33143,20176.6
PRLUSDT32443,20175.0
ROBOUSDT31543,20172.9
HANAUSDT29643,20168.5
MAGMAUSDT29443,20168.1
COLLECTUSDT28743,20166.4
ESPUSDT28643,20166.2
POWERUSDT26743,20161.8
TRIAUSDT25443,20158.8

Examples and replaysFirst 50 of 14,197 matches

Examples, never the denominator; the counts above cover every match. Replay opens 30 minutes before the moment and depends on coverage and access.

Sort the 50 examples shown here. This does not sort all study matches.

Replay

AIAUSDT2026-09-03 23:53+0.15%+0.34%−0.20%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.0466393829610033	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.526312389838876	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

ACUUSDT2026-09-03 23:50−0.24%+0.79%−0.95%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04745706068215638	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6261945968615669	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

CLOUSDT2026-09-03 23:50−4.07%+3.18%−7.93%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04179351800083007	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.596370279476522	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

SKRUSDT2026-09-03 23:47+1.56%+3.45%−0.55%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.0154716954818728	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5893608903407157	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	4	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BEATUSDT2026-09-03 23:45+0.49%+1.65%−0.25%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04866068940082149	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5110373417643155	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	4	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BULLAUSDT2026-09-03 23:43−8.46%+3.16%−14.89%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04400248311342758	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.7321620535484974	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BLESSUSDT2026-09-03 23:42+1.00%+1.33%−0.01%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04351610815451223	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5423481096377969	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	5	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

4USDT2026-09-03 23:40−1.28%+0.27%−3.05%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.0308511647409297	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5649448041165841	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

MAGMAUSDT2026-09-03 23:38−9.17%+2.15%−12.41%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.025493794581833276	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6619055883394839	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

CYSUSDT2026-09-03 23:29+0.26%+0.88%−10.01%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03737818553698508	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5836931512802492	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	5	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

QUSDT2026-09-03 23:29+0.06%+0.28%−0.15%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04929245123080825	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6427130116318717	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

ESPUSDT2026-09-03 23:22+0.75%+1.52%−0.49%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03895329444067909	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5502179182118792	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

TRIAUSDT2026-09-03 23:20+0.36%+0.54%−1.01%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04966335345843863	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5938805963882559	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	5	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

JCTUSDT2026-09-03 23:17−0.11%+0.16%−0.32%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.048468570382323356	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5821175591428662	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	5	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

ELSAUSDT2026-09-03 23:10−0.48%+0.15%−0.65%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04157648290581987	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5530072040414249	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BILLUSDT2026-09-03 23:09+0.06%+0.24%−1.13%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04567727954183803	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5305660808572555	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

APRUSDT2026-09-03 23:06+0.90%+2.60%−0.72%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.0495765393105517	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6553471623173854	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	5	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

USUSDT2026-09-03 23:06−0.05%+0.42%−0.84%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04525777342369174	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6137642245882341	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

SIRENUSDT2026-09-03 23:05+0.24%+0.38%−0.34%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04876444769788542	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5738158820504198	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

AKEUSDT2026-09-03 23:04+2.38%+4.46%−0.93%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04623148666361626	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.570230206580446	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	4	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

PRLUSDT2026-09-03 23:04+0.39%+0.62%−0.70%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03874612528705104	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6354540093761888	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

COLLECTUSDT2026-09-03 23:03−1.18%+2.19%−3.24%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.030268745935323062	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5709291797213096	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BASEDUSDT2026-09-03 22:52−0.40%+0.34%−0.42%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04714961749922235	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6017255570259347	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BASUSDT2026-09-03 22:50+0.24%+0.51%−0.08%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03968178588469043	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5939432379512984	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

SKRUSDT2026-09-03 22:44−2.12%+0.48%−2.89%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.024239312233272386	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5903778847414963	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	4	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

CLOUSDT2026-09-03 22:43+0.57%+1.10%−0.27%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04094796756542698	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.598102926180965	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

AIAUSDT2026-09-03 22:39+0.28%+1.02%−1.67%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03412174500155791	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5261631729365231	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

COAIUSDT2026-09-03 22:37+1.23%+1.39%−0.18%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.043197080966728446	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5249287128041583	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	9	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

PIEVERSEUSDT2026-09-03 22:37−0.48%+0.14%−0.96%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03395728795925808	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5629634583441838	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

INXUSDT2026-09-03 22:35+0.00%+1.08%−0.19%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04941629533457098	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6224175016970463	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

ACUUSDT2026-09-03 22:33−0.11%+0.88%−0.41%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.042650242361355485	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6261945968615669	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

POWERUSDT2026-09-03 22:29+1.05%+1.12%−0.17%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04826855648068486	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6047281790966054	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	8	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

MAGMAUSDT2026-09-03 22:27−10.11%+0.63%−24.10%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03852208164275003	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6789361386857802	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

LABUSDT2026-09-03 22:25+0.12%+0.64%−0.45%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.042019018923536294	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5903871761616589	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	7	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

AIOUSDT2026-09-03 22:20+0.53%+0.67%−0.93%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04491719973152521	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5519287162607442	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	4	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BULLAUSDT2026-09-03 22:19+8.96%+24.67%−0.25%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03527595359313106	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6879909674259628	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

ESPUSDT2026-09-03 22:18+0.14%+1.68%−0.15%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.040157363956536976	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5505176164023792	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

4USDT2026-09-03 22:13+0.29%+1.77%−0.37%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03713474265883289	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5661694543447341	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BSBUSDT2026-09-03 22:07+0.18%+1.32%−0.31%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04963484373291316	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5945346112199269	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

CYSUSDT2026-09-03 22:07+0.40%+1.32%−0.37%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04078110464369353	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.583681111952345	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	5	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

ATUSDT2026-09-03 22:05−0.21%+0.07%−0.84%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03939973509971468	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5905638353770473	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

SIRENUSDT2026-09-03 22:04−0.31%+0.48%−0.55%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.040201028335605515	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5738158820504198	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

USUSDT2026-09-03 22:04−0.20%+0.09%−1.83%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.043249940161410885	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6137642245882341	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

AKEUSDT2026-09-03 22:02+0.92%+1.34%−5.43%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04679925676325799	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5597202993452679	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	4	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

JCTUSDT2026-09-03 22:01−0.48%+0.05%−1.71%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.049988038112022355	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5821240086841433	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	5	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

PRLUSDT2026-09-03 21:58+1.10%+1.10%−0.16%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03059357940377787	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6354540093761888	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

TRIAUSDT2026-09-03 21:51+0.70%+0.86%−0.16%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03780027655004339	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5938805963882559	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	5	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

GUAUSDT2026-09-03 21:50+0.00%+0.50%−0.18%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.0454830957133622	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5482375920578598	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

COLLECTUSDT2026-09-03 21:49−0.34%+0.25%−2.02%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.02827341188085789	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5709291797213096	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BASUSDT2026-09-03 21:44+0.22%+1.11%−0.26%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.032601520266213324	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5939432379512984	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

Evidence and methodologySetup definition, sample counts, data quality and reproducibility

Check the definition, counts, source limits and reproducibility below.

Published 2026-10-11 by @admin · q#fd440869

The setup: order-book imbalance is unusually flat for this market, liquidations cluster into a cascade and the broken short descending resistance had been tested many times.

Readings in this definition: order-book imbalance rank · Cascade clustering · Touches before resistance break. Each page states the exact rule, its limits and what it does not prove.

How the comparison works

Outcomes start when the full setup completes. Rates exclude incomplete outcomes at each horizon.

14,197
matches: 70
markets: 2,924,472
eligible market-minutes scanned: 2026-09-03
last match: 99
without a 30m outcome

Reference rates are what the record did anyway: all eligible minutes across the same 70 markets and the same window, with no condition and no matching, read by the same rule at every horizon.

Technical audit: exact query, source counts and versions

Exact search

SCOPEidentity.symbol in 4usdt, acuusdt, aiausdt, aiousdt, akeusdt, aprusdt, ariausdt, atusdt, basedusdt, basusdt, beatusdt, billusdt, birbusdt, blessusdt, bluaiusdt, bsbusdt, bullausdt, carvusdt, clankerusdt, clousdt, coaiusdt, collectusdt, cysusdt, doodusdt, elsausdt, espusdt, fightusdt, folksusdt, geniususdt, guausdt, gweiusdt, hanausdt, inusdt, inxusdt, irysusdt, jctusdt, jellyjellyusdt, kgenusdt, labusdt, lynusdt, magmausdt, nightusdt, onusdt, opgusdt, pharosusdt, pieverseusdt, powerusdt, prlusdt, ptbusdt, qusdt, raveusdt, reusdt, riverusdt, robousdt, sapienusdt, sirenusdt, skrusdt, spaceusdt, sportfunusdt, stableusdt, starusdt, tradoorusdt, triausdt, truthusdt, uaiusdt, ubusdt, ususdt, wetusdt, xnyusdt, xpinusdttimes.anchor_time between 2026-08-05T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z

WHEREfeature.book_imbalance_pctrank ≤ 0.05 feature.cascade_clustering_index ≥ 0.5feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches ≥ 3

These confirmed values define the run. Chips link to reading definitions; author commentary is separate.

Pinned result

v2 · nrm.v1 · ft.v1 · rev 035cf64a…e66bed03 · q#fd440869

This key identifies the saved answer. A run against newer data has a new revision and result.

Outcome diagnostics

Headline split (mfe_1h)

670 of 14,150 (4.7%) traded 5% or more above the match at some point within 1h (mfe_1h, a high-water mark and not a close). 13,480 of 14,150 did not. Measured forward from each match. 47 absent, excluded from the denominator.

Peak day and span

Busiest day 2026-08-30: 600 of 14,197 matches (4.2%). 31 UTC days scanned: 30 with matches, 1 with none.

Present and absent by metric

fwd_ret_30m: present 14,098 · absent 99

mfe_1h: present 14,150 · absent 47

mae_1h: present 14,150 · absent 47

Absent: no completed outcome (record edge or missing minutes), excluded from every rate.

Threshold counts (fwd_ret_30m), both signs

≥ +0.16038 OF 14098

≥ +0.25271 OF 14098

≥ +0.53482 OF 14098

≥ +11852 OF 14098

≥ +2729 OF 14098

≥ +5132 OF 14098

≥ +1029 OF 14098

≥ +1512 OF 14098

≥ +207 OF 14098

≥ +302 OF 14098

≥ +500 OF 14098

≥ +1000 OF 14098

≥ +2000 OF 14098

≥ +4000 OF 14098

≤ -0.16209 OF 14098

≤ -0.25390 OF 14098

≤ -0.53461 OF 14098

≤ -11702 OF 14098

≤ -2654 OF 14098

≤ -5160 OF 14098

≤ -1037 OF 14098

≤ -159 OF 14098

≤ -205 OF 14098

≤ -301 OF 14098

≤ -500 OF 14098

≤ -1000 OF 14098

Every row is an exact partial sum of the distribution buckets in the chart, so the table and the chart cannot disagree.

Methodology and versions

DEFINITION

3 clauses · 2 scope

How this is counted

feature.book_imbalance_pctrank ≤ 0.05 · feature.cascade_clustering_index ≥ 0.5 · feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches ≥ 3. the chips at the top of the page are this definition, verbatim.

EXECUTION

edge-triggered · 1m UTC grid

How this is counted

the predicate becomes true having been false; sequences chain greedy-earliest and anchor at completion; episode dedupe PT1H. deterministic at every worker count.

DENOMINATORS

2,924,472 of 3,024,070

How this is counted

eligible market-minutes scanned (one market for one minute) across 70 markets; 99,598 excluded where a measurement was not yet available - missing data shrinks the denominator, it never counts as zero; 0 market-days excluded by the source ledger. counts are matches within the scanned window, never a base rate.

OUTCOMES

forward from anchor · in-scan

How this is counted

closed threshold list ±0.1/0.2/0.5/1/2/5/10/15/20/30/50/100/200/400 pct, 28 fixed buckets across 18 forward metrics, computed over all occurrences pre-paging. an outcome absent at the record edge (horizon incomplete) is counted, never truncated or implied zero. nothing on this page is filterable by outcome. nothing here is a guarantee or trading advice.

OBSERVATION SCOPE

setup as-of anchor

How this is counted

setup values are as-of the anchor bucket close (point-in-time freeze); window aggregates cover their stated pre-anchor duration; every value the predicate consulted is at or before the anchor.

pinned 2026-10-11 · 14197

How this is counted

the pinned result (counts, page-1 rows, outcomes, outcomes summary) never mutates. later dataset revisions are new runs, never merged.

SORT

times.anchor_time asc

How this is counted

the only record sort in v2.0; page limit 50. the pinned rows are page 1 of 14,197 - charts and rates derive from the summary over all occurrences, never from the page.

VERSIONS

q#fd440869 · rev 035cf64aec51

How this is counted

schema research_query.v2 · normalization archive_normalization.v1 · features feature_defs.v1 · encoding record_result.v7. same key implies a byte-identical rerun.

DATASET REV · FULL

035cf64aec51a695e179480f20adb8736f4ffb5619cfe6c0c19c7304e66bed03

Historical counts for choosing what to investigate next: not a forecast, trading advice or evidence of a profitable trade.