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AKE's pre-338% readings on 70 alpha coins, in the month after: did big moves follow more often than on an ordinary minute?

24,902 historical matches·70 markets scanned·2026-09-04 to 2026-10-11

At a glance

An up lean.

Price change 30 minutes after the setup completed.

Fell 2% or more2.9%713 of 24,617 matches2.2% of reference minutes · 1.3x as often82,015 of 3,662,919 minutes

Rose 2% or more3.2%798 of 24,617 matches2.4% of reference minutes · 1.3x as often88,385 of 3,662,919 minutes

Reference: every eligible minute in the same markets and dates, with no setup filter. 285 matches without a complete outcome are left out.

▸ Replay one Edit this question →Check newer evidence ↓

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AKE's pre-338% readings on 70 alpha coins, in the month after: did big moves follow more often than on an ordinary minute?

24,902 matches · 70 markets · 2026-09-04 to 2026-10-11 UTC

An up lean.

Price at 30 minutes after the completed setup. 285 incomplete outcomes excluded.

Closed 2% or more lower: 2.9% (713 of 24,617). Reference: 2.2% (82,015 of 3,662,919).

Closed 2% or more higher: 3.2% (798 of 24,617). Reference: 2.4% (88,385 of 3,662,919).

Reference: all eligible minutes in the same markets and dates, without a setup filter; not a matched control.

Historical evidence, not a trading return or prediction.

Read the evidence and edit the question: https://edgedepth.com/research/reports/featurebookimbalancepctrank-005-featurecascadeclusteringindex-05-feature-e0678e65?utm_source=report-share&utm_medium=peer-share

Scope: Market in 4usdt, acuusdt, aiausdt, aiousdt, akeusdt, aprusdt, ariausdt, atusdt, basedusdt, basusdt, beatusdt, billusdt, birbusdt, blessusdt, bluaiusdt, bsbusdt, bullausdt, carvusdt, clankerusdt, clousdt, coaiusdt, collectusdt, cysusdt, doodusdt, elsausdt, espusdt, fightusdt, folksusdt, geniususdt, guausdt, gweiusdt, hanausdt, inusdt, inxusdt, irysusdt, jctusdt, jellyjellyusdt, kgenusdt, labusdt, lynusdt, magmausdt, nightusdt, onusdt, opgusdt, pharosusdt, pieverseusdt, powerusdt, prlusdt, ptbusdt, qusdt, raveusdt, reusdt, riverusdt, robousdt, sapienusdt, sirenusdt, skrusdt, spaceusdt, sportfunusdt, stableusdt, starusdt, tradoorusdt, triausdt, truthusdt, uaiusdt, ubusdt, ususdt, wetusdt, xnyusdt, xpinusdt, markets combined. Not a result for any one market, sector or asset class. Matches by market ↓ · Research coverage →

Results by time periodCompare 30 minutes, 1 hour and longer periods, including larger moves

Choose a time period. “Closed” measures the price at its end; high and low points measure prices reached along the way. Reference rates use all eligible minutes in the same markets and date range.

30 minutes285 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	3.2%798 of 24,617	2.4%88,385 of 3,662,919	1.3x
Closed 2% or more lower	2.9%713 of 24,617	2.2%82,015 of 3,662,919	1.3x
Closed 5% or more higher	0.7%162 of 24,617	0.4%15,309 of 3,662,919	1.6x
Closed 5% or more lower	0.6%153 of 24,617	0.4%15,777 of 3,662,919	1.4x
High point 5% or more above	1.5%368 of 24,761	1.0%36,943 of 3,695,118	1.5x
Low point 5% or more below	1.5%380 of 24,761	1.0%37,530 of 3,695,118	1.5x

1 hour290 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	5.7%1,406 of 24,612	4.5%164,523 of 3,663,464	1.3x
Closed 2% or more lower	5.4%1,330 of 24,612	4.2%154,896 of 3,663,464	1.3x
Closed 5% or more higher	1.3%313 of 24,612	0.9%31,959 of 3,663,464	1.5x
Closed 5% or more lower	1.2%296 of 24,612	0.9%31,440 of 3,663,464	1.4x
High point 5% or more above	3.0%746 of 24,761	2.1%76,722 of 3,695,118	1.5x
Low point 5% or more below	2.9%728 of 24,761	2.0%74,694 of 3,695,118	1.5x

4 hours297 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	14.8%3,636 of 24,605	13.1%478,124 of 3,662,700	1.1x
Closed 2% or more lower	15.7%3,867 of 24,605	13.4%491,160 of 3,662,700	1.2x
Closed 5% or more higher	4.1%1,012 of 24,605	3.1%115,143 of 3,662,700	1.3x
Closed 5% or more lower	4.2%1,039 of 24,605	3.1%113,004 of 3,662,700	1.4x
High point 5% or more above	10.7%2,642 of 24,761	8.0%294,708 of 3,695,118	1.3x
Low point 5% or more below	9.6%2,384 of 24,761	7.3%268,884 of 3,695,118	1.3x

24 hours340 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	29.8%7,328 of 24,562	29.2%1,065,958 of 3,655,019	1.0x
Closed 2% or more lower	35.5%8,715 of 24,562	32.8%1,200,406 of 3,655,019	1.1x
Closed 5% or more higher	14.8%3,641 of 24,562	13.2%481,439 of 3,655,019	1.1x
Closed 5% or more lower	18.4%4,511 of 24,562	15.3%560,557 of 3,655,019	1.2x
High point 5% or more above	38.0%9,401 of 24,716	33.5%1,233,754 of 3,687,945	1.1x
Low point 5% or more below	36.7%9,079 of 24,716	32.5%1,197,839 of 3,687,945	1.1x

72 hours1,646 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	34.2%7,945 of 23,256	34.7%1,197,950 of 3,457,124	1.0x
Closed 2% or more lower	45.3%10,525 of 23,256	42.7%1,477,137 of 3,457,124	1.1x
Closed 5% or more higher	22.0%5,126 of 23,256	21.4%739,607 of 3,457,124	1.0x
Closed 5% or more lower	30.3%7,055 of 23,256	27.6%955,801 of 3,457,124	1.1x
High point 5% or more above	59.5%13,933 of 23,426	56.5%1,971,089 of 3,488,002	1.1x
Low point 5% or more below	63.3%14,817 of 23,426	59.8%2,084,511 of 3,488,002	1.1x

7 days4,129 incomplete outcomes excluded

Outcome	After this setup	Reference minutes	How often vs reference
Closed 2% or more higher	35.3%7,338 of 20,773	36.5%1,118,224 of 3,060,598	1.0x
Closed 2% or more lower	51.8%10,752 of 20,773	49.1%1,501,549 of 3,060,598	1.1x
Closed 5% or more higher	26.9%5,594 of 20,773	27.8%849,896 of 3,060,598	1.0x
Closed 5% or more lower	41.7%8,656 of 20,773	37.8%1,157,424 of 3,060,598	1.1x
High point 5% or more above	73.3%15,331 of 20,926	72.1%2,225,853 of 3,088,335	1.0x
Low point 5% or more below	77.8%16,278 of 20,926	75.7%2,339,254 of 3,088,335	1.0x

Average and median returns are not available in this report. These frequencies alone do not establish profitability.

When did it happen, and how spread out were returns?Frequency over time and the distribution of 30-minute returns

Occurrences per day · UTC · sum 24,902

Each bar counts matching setups on one UTC day. Look for clusters: many examples from a short period may reflect the same market episode.

Where price ended after 30 minutes

These three groups cover every complete outcome, including the moves smaller than 2%. Bar length shows the share of matches, not the size of the price move.

Fell 2% or more2.9%

713 of 24,617 matches

Between −2% and +2%93.9%

23,106 of 24,617 matches

Rose 2% or more3.2%

798 of 24,617 matches

285 incomplete outcomes excluded. This measures the price at 30 minutes, not the highest or lowest price reached on the way.

Detailed distribution: 28 return ranges

30-minute return distribution · 24,617 present · 285 absent. Each column counts outcomes in the labelled return range. The ranges have different widths; compare counts, not the shape as a probability density.

Author's noteOpinion, not machine output

"Held-out test, fixed before it ran on 12 Oct 2026. AKE/USDT rose 338% on 2 Sep 2026. Its readings at 13:00 UTC, rounded (book imbalance percentile 0.05 or less, cascade clustering 0.5 or more, 3 or more broken short-resistance touches), were tested on the 70 current alpha-sector Binance perpetuals for 4 Sep to 11 Oct 2026, the month after the one the setup came from. Pass mark set in advance: at least 1.5 times the same-scope reference. 2 Oct 2026 is the live-store switchover day and carries about 58% of its usual minutes. Companion report: the same definition for 5 Aug to 4 Sep 2026."

Representatives, drawn: the line the detector counted at each

Best 30m · BULLAUSDT 2026-09-05 02:48+91.73% over 30m

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

Worst 30m · QUSDT 2026-09-27 14:21-36.64% over 30m

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

Median 30m · JCTUSDT 2026-09-20 16:250.00% over 30m

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

Worst 1h adverse · QUSDT 2026-09-26 16:04-52.66% worst 1h

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

Biggest 24h run · BULLAUSDT 2026-09-04 20:41+256.73% best within 24h

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

Biggest 7d run · AKEUSDT 2026-09-13 11:48+1031.70% best within 7d

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

Results since publicationHave new matches appeared, and what happened after them?

Outcome	Original study, 2026-09-04 to 2026-10-11	Since publication, from 2026-10-11
Traded 5% or more above the match within 1h	746 of 24,761 (3.0%) · 141 absent, not counted	loading
Closed 2% or more higher at 24h	7,328 of 24,562 (29.8%) · 340 absent, not counted	loading
Closed 2% or more lower at 24h	8,715 of 24,562 (35.5%) · 340 absent, not counted	loading

Both periods are counted the same way. The later period is the same search on data recorded after publication, not a preregistered test. A missing outcome is never counted as zero.

Matches by marketMost matches: MAGMAUSDT 718 · AKEUSDT 704 · INXUSDT 63770 markets itemized

Find where this setup appeared. These are occurrence counts, not performance rankings. Outcomes for individual markets are not included in this saved report.

Find a marketShowing 25 of 70 itemized markets

MAGMAUSDT71853,276134.8
AKEUSDT70453,276132.1
INXUSDT63752,161122.1
4USDT63653,276119.4
BASUSDT63149,463127.6
USUSDT62453,276117.1
PIEVERSEUSDT61652,158118.1
BSBUSDT60252,161115.4
BULLAUSDT59353,276111.3
AIAUSDT56853,276106.6
COLLECTUSDT55052,213105.3
SKRUSDT55053,276103.2
COAIUSDT52552,177100.6
POWERUSDT49453,27692.7
BILLUSDT49052,26793.7
BASEDUSDT48552,24192.8
ESPUSDT48553,27691.0
QUSDT48143,377110.9
CLOUSDT46352,62288.0
GENIUSUSDT45853,02586.4
SIRENUSDT44553,27683.5
TRIAUSDT44053,27682.6
GWEIUSDT41853,27678.5
ARIAUSDT40852,15778.2
APRUSDT40453,27675.8

Examples and replaysFirst 50 of 24,902 matches

Examples, never the denominator; the counts above cover every match. Replay opens 30 minutes before the moment and depends on coverage and access.

Sort the 50 examples shown here. This does not sort all study matches.

Replay

BSBUSDT2026-10-10 23:57−0.10%+0.21%−0.71%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04979534618336928	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5090004635092832	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	5	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BULLAUSDT2026-10-10 23:57−0.12%+0.00%−0.66%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03580437997758657	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5248573229626698	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	4	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

TRIAUSDT2026-10-10 23:57+0.21%+0.81%−0.45%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.0437709452044493	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5781276236708786	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

ELSAUSDT2026-10-10 23:56+0.24%+0.90%−0.44%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.049290520100180826	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6065855794791025	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

GENIUSUSDT2026-10-10 23:56−0.43%+0.26%−0.66%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.043953073756357756	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5146341142169397	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	4	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

LABUSDT2026-10-10 23:55−0.33%+0.35%−0.40%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03990732035237817	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5423077070472181	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	7	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

COLLECTUSDT2026-10-10 23:52+0.65%+1.12%−0.05%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04464089283937098	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.668657463771173	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

CARVUSDT2026-10-10 23:51−0.41%+0.07%−0.94%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.0445159915181646	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.778112270253617	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

QUSDT2026-10-10 23:50+0.04%+0.70%−0.64%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.0484214286523459	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6135511754125387	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BASUSDT2026-10-10 23:48+0.01%+0.12%−0.11%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.044237474537984094	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6116443728808947	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

POWERUSDT2026-10-10 23:48+0.59%+1.42%−0.01%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.048390653636756695	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5737112719491991	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	5	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

STARUSDT2026-10-10 23:38+0.11%+0.80%−0.20%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.02464817047536566	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5954750905952428	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

CLOUSDT2026-10-10 23:37+0.12%+1.11%−0.38%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04769768258072986	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6018585519607609	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

SAPIENUSDT2026-10-10 23:35−0.13%+0.03%−0.42%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03305591853711787	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.7189003999462623	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	6	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

APRUSDT2026-10-10 23:33−0.27%+1.21%−0.54%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.044544524643841926	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.7724229996961103	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	6	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

TRUTHUSDT2026-10-10 23:29+0.02%+0.11%−0.21%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03585163668293584	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6498353598093203	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

ESPUSDT2026-10-10 23:26+0.38%+1.15%−0.04%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03006093089541934	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5743613049510067	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

SPACEUSDT2026-10-10 23:26+0.05%+0.29%−0.25%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.046346208573588926	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6133465617015107	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	5	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BEATUSDT2026-10-10 23:24·+0.34%+0.00%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03182503179754521	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5370353787007475	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	4	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BLESSUSDT2026-10-10 23:24+0.07%+0.22%−0.48%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03632039632668749	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5631596256915481	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

WETUSDT2026-10-10 23:23+0.20%+0.28%−0.17%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.042225612947681616	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5591907750247797	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

LYNUSDT2026-10-10 23:16+0.18%+0.47%−0.30%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04659846367103468	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6221609799138333	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

MAGMAUSDT2026-10-10 23:14−0.39%+0.16%−0.65%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03962782064544657	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6070715369116685	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	4	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

AIAUSDT2026-10-10 23:09−0.12%+0.34%−1.53%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04975257230668978	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.7204681740057018	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	4	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

4USDT2026-10-10 23:08−0.14%+0.55%−0.19%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.038954882432300046	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.628592003771612	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	6	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

AKEUSDT2026-10-10 23:07+0.20%+0.80%−0.25%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.025306197455937672	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6546361071526963	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BASEDUSDT2026-10-10 22:58+0.13%+0.54%−0.29%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03802871927580361	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6579956224652693	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

INXUSDT2026-10-10 22:57−0.06%+0.26%−0.16%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.048073682877248905	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5507939649472311	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	4	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

GENIUSUSDT2026-10-10 22:56+0.09%+0.90%−0.12%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04557485173666028	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5146341142169397	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	4	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BULLAUSDT2026-10-10 22:55−0.24%+0.00%−0.85%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04052806602106829	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5248573229626698	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	4	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

PTBUSDT2026-10-10 22:55−0.38%+0.34%−0.65%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04437726348322621	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6168055257546278	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

JELLYJELLYUSDT2026-10-10 22:54−0.11%+0.04%−0.21%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04409094032379366	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5721806100304	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

FOLKSUSDT2026-10-10 22:48−0.30%+0.22%−0.69%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.035065519345208976	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6226492737808644	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	5	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

LABUSDT2026-10-10 22:46+0.40%+0.70%−0.02%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03244182233004031	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5423077070472181	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	7	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

TRIAUSDT2026-10-10 22:46−0.15%+0.09%−0.69%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.044995762755460605	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5781276236708786	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

INUSDT2026-10-10 22:45−0.24%+0.00%−0.33%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04896483228600196	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5867169942230357	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

QUSDT2026-10-10 22:43+2.13%+2.50%−0.05%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03809792011206998	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6123753071852429	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

SAPIENUSDT2026-10-10 22:35−0.49%−0.01%−0.73%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04184242787681085	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.7189003999462623	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	6	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BASUSDT2026-10-10 22:25+0.11%+0.18%−0.10%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03779891270776878	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6116443728808947	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BLESSUSDT2026-10-10 22:23−0.17%+0.14%−0.41%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.023138474731502448	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.563154851518094	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

USUSDT2026-10-10 22:22−0.26%+0.91%−1.70%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04700986133959782	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6729500236152225	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	4	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BSBUSDT2026-10-10 22:20−0.04%+0.30%−0.28%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.0424365749250827	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5090004635092832	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	5	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

STARUSDT2026-10-10 22:20−0.23%+0.17%−0.48%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.041739718249483394	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5954750905952428	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

XNYUSDT2026-10-10 22:20+0.22%+0.46%−0.05%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04014395465747917	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5970523292604533	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

XPINUSDT2026-10-10 22:17−0.12%+0.24%−0.24%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04571936169992032	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.508076378135172	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	10	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

ACUUSDT2026-10-10 22:14+0.08%+0.29%−0.28%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.043044316881238956	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5382090071514384	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	6	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BLUAIUSDT2026-10-10 22:12−0.30%+0.04%−0.53%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.04289824825492193	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6367733481065428	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	6	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

BEATUSDT2026-10-10 22:10−0.34%+0.00%−0.46%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03851610424694015	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.5370353787007475	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	4	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

TRUTHUSDT2026-10-10 22:09−0.07%+0.10%−0.35%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03459051668694875	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.6498353598093203	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	3	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

APRUSDT2026-10-10 22:08−0.54%+0.54%−2.16%replay →

Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute

Field	Op	Query	Observed	Scope
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	between	{"lte":0.05}	0.03529506436622384	setup_point_in_time
feature.cascade_clustering_index	between	{"gte":0.5}	0.7695868238688734	setup_point_in_time
feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches	between	{"gte":3}	6	setup_point_in_time

Replays the frozen detector over the recorded 1m tape to this minute and draws the line it counted, with the stored values beside the replayed ones.

Evidence and methodologySetup definition, sample counts, data quality and reproducibility

Check the definition, counts, source limits and reproducibility below.

Published 2026-10-11 by @admin · q#e0678e65

The setup: order-book imbalance is unusually flat for this market, liquidations cluster into a cascade and the broken short descending resistance had been tested many times.

Readings in this definition: order-book imbalance rank · Cascade clustering · Touches before resistance break. Each page states the exact rule, its limits and what it does not prove.

How the comparison works

Outcomes start when the full setup completes. Rates exclude incomplete outcomes at each horizon.

24,902
matches: 70
markets: 3,613,069
eligible market-minutes scanned: 2026-10-10
last match: 285
without a 30m outcome

Reference rates are what the record did anyway: all eligible minutes across the same 70 markets and the same window, with no condition and no matching, read by the same rule at every horizon.

Technical audit: exact query, source counts and versions

Exact search

SCOPEidentity.symbol in 4usdt, acuusdt, aiausdt, aiousdt, akeusdt, aprusdt, ariausdt, atusdt, basedusdt, basusdt, beatusdt, billusdt, birbusdt, blessusdt, bluaiusdt, bsbusdt, bullausdt, carvusdt, clankerusdt, clousdt, coaiusdt, collectusdt, cysusdt, doodusdt, elsausdt, espusdt, fightusdt, folksusdt, geniususdt, guausdt, gweiusdt, hanausdt, inusdt, inxusdt, irysusdt, jctusdt, jellyjellyusdt, kgenusdt, labusdt, lynusdt, magmausdt, nightusdt, onusdt, opgusdt, pharosusdt, pieverseusdt, powerusdt, prlusdt, ptbusdt, qusdt, raveusdt, reusdt, riverusdt, robousdt, sapienusdt, sirenusdt, skrusdt, spaceusdt, sportfunusdt, stableusdt, starusdt, tradoorusdt, triausdt, truthusdt, uaiusdt, ubusdt, ususdt, wetusdt, xnyusdt, xpinusdttimes.anchor_time between 2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z

WHEREfeature.book_imbalance_pctrank ≤ 0.05 feature.cascade_clustering_index ≥ 0.5feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches ≥ 3

These confirmed values define the run. Chips link to reading definitions; author commentary is separate.

Pinned result

v2 · nrm.v1 · ft.v1 · rev 08d06f42…c6fdbd5b · q#e0678e65

This key identifies the saved answer. A run against newer data has a new revision and result.

Outcome diagnostics

Headline split (mfe_1h)

746 of 24,761 (3.0%) traded 5% or more above the match at some point within 1h (mfe_1h, a high-water mark and not a close). 24,015 of 24,761 did not. Measured forward from each match. 141 absent, excluded from the denominator.

Peak day and span

Busiest day 2026-09-28: 903 of 24,902 matches (3.6%). 38 UTC days scanned: 37 with matches, 1 with none.

Present and absent by metric

fwd_ret_30m: present 24,617 · absent 285

mfe_1h: present 24,761 · absent 141

mae_1h: present 24,761 · absent 141

Absent: no completed outcome (record edge or missing minutes), excluded from every rate.

Threshold counts (fwd_ret_30m), both signs

≥ +0.110450 OF 24617

≥ +0.28734 OF 24617

≥ +0.55181 OF 24617

≥ +12349 OF 24617

≥ +2798 OF 24617

≥ +5162 OF 24617

≥ +1040 OF 24617

≥ +1510 OF 24617

≥ +207 OF 24617

≥ +304 OF 24617

≥ +501 OF 24617

≥ +1000 OF 24617

≥ +2000 OF 24617

≥ +4000 OF 24617

≤ -0.110496 OF 24617

≤ -0.28838 OF 24617

≤ -0.55153 OF 24617

≤ -12261 OF 24617

≤ -2713 OF 24617

≤ -5153 OF 24617

≤ -1045 OF 24617

≤ -1510 OF 24617

≤ -202 OF 24617

≤ -301 OF 24617

≤ -500 OF 24617

≤ -1000 OF 24617

Every row is an exact partial sum of the distribution buckets in the chart, so the table and the chart cannot disagree.

Methodology and versions

DEFINITION

3 clauses · 2 scope

How this is counted

feature.book_imbalance_pctrank ≤ 0.05 · feature.cascade_clustering_index ≥ 0.5 · feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches ≥ 3. the chips at the top of the page are this definition, verbatim.

EXECUTION

edge-triggered · 1m UTC grid

How this is counted

the predicate becomes true having been false; sequences chain greedy-earliest and anchor at completion; episode dedupe PT1H. deterministic at every worker count.

DENOMINATORS

3,613,069 of 3,729,670

How this is counted

eligible market-minutes scanned (one market for one minute) across 70 markets; 116,601 excluded where a measurement was not yet available - missing data shrinks the denominator, it never counts as zero; 0 market-days excluded by the source ledger. counts are matches within the scanned window, never a base rate.

OUTCOMES

forward from anchor · in-scan

How this is counted

closed threshold list ±0.1/0.2/0.5/1/2/5/10/15/20/30/50/100/200/400 pct, 28 fixed buckets across 18 forward metrics, computed over all occurrences pre-paging. an outcome absent at the record edge (horizon incomplete) is counted, never truncated or implied zero. nothing on this page is filterable by outcome. nothing here is a guarantee or trading advice.

OBSERVATION SCOPE

setup as-of anchor

How this is counted

setup values are as-of the anchor bucket close (point-in-time freeze); window aggregates cover their stated pre-anchor duration; every value the predicate consulted is at or before the anchor.

pinned 2026-10-11 · 24902

How this is counted

the pinned result (counts, page-1 rows, outcomes, outcomes summary) never mutates. later dataset revisions are new runs, never merged.

SORT

times.anchor_time asc

How this is counted

the only record sort in v2.0; page limit 50. the pinned rows are page 1 of 24,902 - charts and rates derive from the summary over all occurrences, never from the page.

VERSIONS

q#e0678e65 · rev 08d06f42aad8

How this is counted

schema research_query.v2 · normalization archive_normalization.v1 · features feature_defs.v1 · encoding record_result.v7. same key implies a byte-identical rerun.

DATASET REV · FULL

08d06f42aad8a7d5b79d0aef115540a1ec35edf5cfebe41df696ddc8c6fdbd5b

Historical counts for choosing what to investigate next: not a forecast, trading advice or evidence of a profitable trade.