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Pricing

After $5M of liquidations in an hour, does the move keep going?

700 matches·all scanned symbols·2025-07-15 to 2026-09-04

Close to a coin flip: 367 rose and 333 fell over the next 30 minutes (700 completed).

700
matches
844
markets
321,953,806
eligible market-minutes scanned

Of all eligible minutes across the same 844 markets: 156,898,765 of 309,306,062 rose (50.7%) and 152,407,297 fell (49.3%) over the same 30 minutes.

▸ Replay an occurrenceRun this study →Has it held up since publication? ↓
OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 700
34017MATCHES PER UTC DAY · MAX 34 ON 2025-10-10JUL 15AUG 01SEP 01OCT 01NOV 01DEC 01JAN 01FEB 01MAR 01APR 01MAY 01JUN 01JUL 01AUG 01SEP 012025-07-15 TO 2026-09-04 · 417 UTC DAYS · ZERO DAYS KEEP THEIR SLOT
FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 700 PRESENT · 0 ABSENT10 FIXED BUCKETS
≥ +5: 15 OF 700211121147791014840654511474391544133≤−100−50−30−10−5−2−1−0.5−0.2−0.1<00++0.1+0.2+0.5+1+2+5+10+15+20+50≥+400
AUTHOR'S NOTE - OPINION, NOT MACHINE OUTPUT

"Full-record refresh of q#34fc2ca4, which scanned 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-26. That pinned report is unchanged."

Results since publicationThe same search on data recorded after publication, side by side
OutcomeOriginal window, 2025-07-15 to 2026-09-04Since publication, from 2026-09-05
Traded 5% or more above the match within 1h33 of 699 (4.7%) · 1 absent, not countedloading
Closed 2% or more higher at 24h153 of 687 (22.3%) · 13 absent, not countedloading
Closed 2% or more lower at 24h165 of 687 (24.0%) · 13 absent, not countedloading

Both periods are counted the same way. The later period is the same search on data recorded after publication, not a preregistered test. A missing outcome is never counted as zero.

Matches by marketMost matches: ETHUSDT 289 · BTCUSDT 282 · SOLUSDT 34844 markets itemized

How many matches each market contributed, over the minutes actually scanned there. The rate is matches per 10,000 scanned minutes, a frequency of the setup and not a result. What followed is summarized above over all matches together; the pinned result carries no per-market outcome summary, so none is claimed here.

Showing 25 of 844 itemized markets
  • ETHETHUSDT289578,7625.0
  • BTCBTCUSDT282578,7624.9
  • SOLSOLUSDT34578,7620.6
  • BTCBTCUSDC12439,0810.3
  • ETHETHUSDC11439,0810.3
  • DOGDOGEUSDT7578,7620.1
  • XRPXRPUSDT7578,7620.1
  • SNDSNDKUSDT5165,0010.3
  • SPCSPCXUSDT5110,8210.5
  • BNBBNBUSDT4578,7620.1
  • XAGXAGUSDT4294,6010.1
  • HYPHYPEUSDT3578,7620.1
  • SUISUIUSDT3548,5220.1
  • XAUXAUUSDT3333,4810.1
  • ZECZECUSDT3578,7620.1
  • AAVAAVEUSDT2548,5220.0
  • ADAADAUSDT2578,7620.0
  • ENAENAUSDT2548,5220.0
  • PEP1000PEPEUSDT1578,7620.0
  • SHI1000SHIBUSDT1548,5220.0
  • APTAPTUSDT1548,5220.0
  • ASTASTERUSDT1452,7620.0
  • AVAAVAXUSDT1548,5220.0
  • BCHBCHUSDT1548,5220.0
  • BNBBNBUSDC1439,0810.0
Examples and replaysFirst 50 of 700 matches

Examples, never the denominator; the counts above cover every match. Replay opens 30 minutes before the moment.

MarketWhen (UTC)30m returnHigh-water 1hLow-water 1hReplay
BTCBTCUSDT2026-08-20 23:27−0.18%··replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5199268.913790002setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDT2026-08-20 17:08−0.03%+0.29%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5164785.773639998setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-20 16:42−0.08%+0.91%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}8280171.998540005setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDC2026-08-20 15:33−100.00%+0.00%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}8806124.482299995setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDT2026-08-20 15:31−0.20%+0.51%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5226327.400749996setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-20 15:30+0.52%+1.09%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}6357050.75514setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-20 13:37−100.00%+1.37%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}9502758.360439997setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-20 11:52−1.51%+0.01%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5071479.48535setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDT2026-08-20 10:16−0.69%+0.22%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}6017591.2296600025setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-20 08:54+0.52%+0.82%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5270782.715069999setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDC2026-08-20 08:18+0.19%+0.55%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5280449.734400002setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDT2026-08-20 08:08+1.31%+2.06%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}22401739.667430002setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-20 03:11+0.86%+1.41%−100.00%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5367665.27384setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-19 22:31−0.50%+0.35%−0.86%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5883724.78setup_point_in_time
XAUXAUUSDT2026-08-19 21:08−0.04%+0.01%−0.17%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}8780610.690000003setup_point_in_time
ZECZECUSDT2026-08-19 21:08−2.28%+0.14%−2.94%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}6212873.030000001setup_point_in_time
SOLSOLUSDT2026-08-19 20:52+3.39%+4.21%−0.24%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}12219406.619999997setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDT2026-08-19 20:51+0.49%+1.33%−0.27%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}19313514.950000025setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-19 20:26+3.76%+10.07%−0.15%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}6273141.990000003setup_point_in_time
HYPHYPEUSDT2026-08-19 19:20−1.19%+2.15%−3.39%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5497731.869999998setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-19 19:14−0.05%+0.97%−0.55%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}6675046.790000002setup_point_in_time
XAUXAUUSDT2026-08-19 15:28+0.18%+0.35%−0.08%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5494009.160000001setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-19 14:55+3.49%+8.83%−0.02%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}6359449.329999998setup_point_in_time
SOLSOLUSDT2026-08-19 14:55+0.91%+3.36%−0.02%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}6109897.690000002setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDT2026-08-19 13:32−0.25%+0.42%−0.61%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}7270457.89setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDT2026-08-18 14:27−0.23%+0.30%−0.39%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5055926.459999999setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDT2026-08-17 18:24−0.22%+0.08%−0.40%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}6313497.39setup_point_in_time
SNDSNDKUSDT2026-08-17 02:23+0.17%+0.57%−1.40%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}6140180.6899999995setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDT2026-08-16 22:37+0.29%+0.36%−0.09%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5035364.989999999setup_point_in_time
SNDSNDKUSDT2026-08-14 08:06−1.10%+0.62%−1.56%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5988003.9399999995setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDT2026-08-13 16:42+0.41%+0.60%−0.10%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}7302320.799999998setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-13 16:42+0.64%+0.84%−0.07%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5788876.679999996setup_point_in_time
SNDSNDKUSDT2026-08-13 15:17+0.92%+4.93%−0.38%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}7565641.410000004setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-12 09:33+0.15%+0.33%−0.35%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5276420.069999999setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-11 15:42+0.40%+0.55%−0.20%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5572279.880000001setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDT2026-08-11 15:39+0.11%+0.21%−0.13%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5496181.039999999setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDT2026-08-10 16:55+0.14%+0.29%−0.02%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}6074031.980000004setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDT2026-08-10 15:38+0.05%+0.14%−0.50%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5119705.51setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-10 15:14+0.00%+0.10%−0.43%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}7910232.720000002setup_point_in_time
TUTTUTUSDT2026-08-09 07:11−44.18%+0.59%−69.68%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5016423.5900000045setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-07 12:12−0.32%+0.38%−0.75%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5672689.079999996setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDT2026-08-05 19:06+0.02%+0.07%−0.11%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}6514477.16setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-05 18:05−0.27%+0.39%−0.35%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5654255.480000001setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDT2026-08-03 13:53+0.14%+1.24%−0.06%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}9087905.159999995setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDT2026-08-03 08:23+0.13%+0.45%−0.15%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5043254.750000001setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-02 11:57+0.40%+0.55%−0.08%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}5007028.879999999setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDT2026-08-01 18:32+0.33%+0.47%−0.08%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}9567154.019999996setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-08-01 18:31−0.48%+0.00%−1.28%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}13082577.65setup_point_in_time
ETHETHUSDT2026-07-31 14:07+0.76%+1.03%−0.18%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}10041851.989999996setup_point_in_time
BTCBTCUSDT2026-07-31 14:05−0.46%−0.00%−0.94%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
FieldOpQueryObservedScope
feature.liq_notional_usd_1hbetween{"gte":5000000}6498837.4setup_point_in_time
Evidence and methodologyThe exact search, the pin, missing data and versions

Published 2026-09-05 by @admin · q#3e4d2924

Exact search

Every time $5M or more liquidated in the trailing hour

SCOPEtimes.anchor_time between 2025-07-15T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z
WHEREfeature.liq_notional_usd_1h ≥ 5000000

These values are what ran, confirmed by the author before the run. Prose on this page is commentary.

Pinned result

v2 · nrm.v1 · ft.v1 · rev 6e2bee53…a3be76fb · q#3e4d2924

This ID reruns to the same answer on any day and any account. It never changes; the record grows nightly and a rerun publishes as a new labeled result.

Outcome diagnostics

Headline split (mfe_1h)
33 of 699 (4.7%) traded 5% or more above the match at some point within 1h (mfe_1h, a high-water mark and not a close). 666 of 699 did not. Measured forward from each match. 1 absent, excluded from the denominator.
Peak day and span
Busiest day 2025-10-10: 34 of 700 matches (4.9%). 417 UTC days scanned: 219 with matches, 198 with none.
Present and absent by metric
fwd_ret_30m: present 700 · absent 0
mfe_1h: present 699 · absent 1
mae_1h: present 699 · absent 1
Absent: no completed outcome (record edge or missing minutes), excluded from every rate.
Threshold counts (fwd_ret_30m), both signs
≥ +0302 OF 700
≥ +0257 OF 700
≥ +1143 OF 700
≥ +169 OF 700
≥ +230 OF 700
≥ +515 OF 700
≥ +1011 OF 700
≥ +157 OF 700
≥ +206 OF 700
≥ +303 OF 700
≥ +503 OF 700
≥ +1000 OF 700
≥ +2000 OF 700
≥ +4000 OF 700
≤ -0293 OF 700
≤ -0245 OF 700
≤ -1144 OF 700
≤ -165 OF 700
≤ -218 OF 700
≤ -57 OF 700
≤ -105 OF 700
≤ -154 OF 700
≤ -204 OF 700
≤ -304 OF 700
≤ -503 OF 700
≤ -1002 OF 700
Every row is an exact partial sum of the distribution buckets in the chart, so the table and the chart cannot disagree.

Methodology and versions

DEFINITION
1 clause · 1 scope
How this is counted
feature.liq_notional_usd_1h ≥ 5000000. the chips at the top of the page are this definition, verbatim.
EXECUTION
edge-triggered · 1m UTC grid
How this is counted
the predicate becomes true having been false; sequences chain greedy-earliest and anchor at completion; episode dedupe PT1H. deterministic at every worker count.
DENOMINATORS
321,953,806 of 505,590,604
How this is counted
eligible market-minutes scanned (one market for one minute) across 844 markets; 183,636,798 excluded where a measurement was not yet available - missing data shrinks the denominator, it never counts as zero; 53197 market-days excluded by the source ledger. counts are matches within the scanned window, never a base rate.
OUTCOMES
forward from anchor · in-scan
How this is counted
closed threshold list ±0/0/1/1/2/5/10/15/20/30/50/100/200/400 pct, 28 fixed buckets across 12 forward metrics, computed over all occurrences pre-paging. an outcome absent at the record edge (horizon incomplete) is counted, never truncated or implied zero. nothing on this page is filterable by outcome. nothing here is a guarantee or trading advice.
OBSERVATION SCOPE
setup as-of anchor
How this is counted
setup values are as-of the anchor bucket close (point-in-time freeze); window aggregates cover their stated pre-anchor duration; every value the predicate consulted is at or before the anchor.
PIN
pinned 2026-09-05 · 700
How this is counted
the pinned result (counts, page-1 rows, outcomes, outcomes summary) never mutates. later dataset revisions are new runs, never merged.
SORT
times.anchor_time asc
How this is counted
the only record sort in v2.0; page limit 50. the pinned rows are page 1 of 700 - charts and rates derive from the summary over all occurrences, never from the page.
VERSIONS
q#3e4d2924 · rev 6e2bee531043
How this is counted
schema research_query.v2 · normalization archive_normalization.v1 · features feature_defs.v1 · encoding record_result.v6. same key implies a byte-identical rerun.
DATASET REV · FULL
6e2bee531043791f0990ab61c8c7c22d18aaea20c1543c1798cd9019a3be76fb

These are counts of what happened in the scanned window, not a promise it happens again. Nothing here is trading advice.