Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
After $5M of liquidations in an hour, does the move keep going?
700 historical matches·844 markets scanned·2025-07-15 to 2026-09-04
At a glance
An up lean.
Price change 30 minutes after the setup completed.
Fell 2% or more2.6%18 of 700 matches1.9% of reference minutes · 1.4x as often5,826,103 of 309,306,062 minutes
Rose 2% or more4.3%30 of 700 matches2.1% of reference minutes · 2.0x as often6,523,279 of 309,306,062 minutes
Reference: every eligible minute in the same markets and dates, with no setup filter.
Data limitation: Last match 2026-08-20; 14 days before the scanned window ends. Some low-point readings contain missing-price defects. See data quality details ↓
Share text
Scope: all scanned markets combined, no market or sector filter. Not a result for any one market, sector or asset class. Matches by market ↓ · Research coverage →
Results by time periodCompare 30 minutes, 1 hour and longer periods, including larger moves
Choose a time period. “Closed” measures the price at its end; high and low points measure prices reached along the way. Reference rates use all eligible minutes in the same markets and date range.
30 minutesView outcomes and counts
| Outcome | After this setup | Reference minutes | How often vs reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed 2% or more higher | 4.3%30 of 700 | 2.1%6,523,279 of 309,306,062 | 2.0x |
| Closed 2% or more lower | 2.6%18 of 700 | 1.9%5,826,103 of 309,306,062 | 1.4x |
| Closed 5% or more higher | 2.1%15 of 700 | 0.3%893,008 of 309,306,062 | 7.4x |
| Closed 5% or more lower | 1.0%7 of 700 | 0.2%717,031 of 309,306,062 | 4.3x |
| High point 5% or more above | 3.9%27 of 700 | 0.7%2,144,607 of 314,124,431 | 5.6x |
| Low point 5% or more below | 5.7%40 of 700 | 0.6%1,992,016 of 314,124,431 | 9.0x |
1 hour1 incomplete outcomes excluded
| Outcome | After this setup | Reference minutes | How often vs reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed 2% or more higher | 6.9%48 of 699 | 4.1%12,625,601 of 309,270,041 | 1.7x |
| Closed 2% or more lower | 3.1%22 of 699 | 3.9%12,006,140 of 309,270,041 | 0.8x |
| Closed 5% or more higher | 3.0%21 of 699 | 0.6%1,962,537 of 309,270,041 | 4.7x |
| Closed 5% or more lower | 0.7%5 of 699 | 0.5%1,554,800 of 309,270,041 | 1.4x |
| High point 5% or more above | 4.7%33 of 699 | 1.5%4,728,628 of 314,109,985 | 3.1x |
| Low point 5% or more below | 5.9%41 of 699 | 1.3%4,078,811 of 314,109,985 | 4.5x |
4 hours1 incomplete outcomes excluded
| Outcome | After this setup | Reference minutes | How often vs reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed 2% or more higher | 11.9%83 of 699 | 12.1%37,217,067 of 308,817,300 | 1.0x |
| Closed 2% or more lower | 8.6%60 of 699 | 13.0%40,042,741 of 308,817,300 | 0.7x |
| Closed 5% or more higher | 4.6%32 of 699 | 2.7%8,215,424 of 308,817,300 | 1.7x |
| Closed 5% or more lower | 1.4%10 of 699 | 2.5%7,606,298 of 308,817,300 | 0.6x |
| High point 5% or more above | 6.4%45 of 699 | 6.4%20,179,064 of 313,989,332 | 1.0x |
| Low point 5% or more below | 9.3%65 of 699 | 5.7%17,974,657 of 313,989,332 | 1.6x |
24 hours13 incomplete outcomes excluded
| Outcome | After this setup | Reference minutes | How often vs reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed 2% or more higher | 22.3%153 of 687 | 27.0%83,027,835 of 307,038,713 | 0.8x |
| Closed 2% or more lower | 24.0%165 of 687 | 32.6%100,217,389 of 307,038,713 | 0.7x |
| Closed 5% or more higher | 7.6%52 of 687 | 11.7%36,049,343 of 307,038,713 | 0.6x |
| Closed 5% or more lower | 5.5%38 of 687 | 13.7%42,173,897 of 307,038,713 | 0.4x |
| High point 5% or more above | 15.6%107 of 687 | 28.3%88,759,065 of 313,152,058 | 0.5x |
| Low point 5% or more below | 19.8%136 of 687 | 29.3%91,675,224 of 313,152,058 | 0.7x |
72 hours: Not included in this saved report.
7 days: Not included in this saved report.
Average and median returns are not available in this report. These frequencies alone do not establish profitability.
When did it happen, and how spread out were returns?Frequency over time and the distribution of 30-minute returns
Occurrences per day · UTC · sum 700
Each bar counts matching setups on one UTC day. Look for clusters: many examples from a short period may reflect the same market episode.
Where price ended after 30 minutes
These three groups cover every complete outcome, including the moves smaller than 2%. Bar length shows the share of matches, not the size of the price move.
Fell 2% or more2.6%
18 of 700 matchesBetween −2% and +2%93.1%
652 of 700 matchesRose 2% or more4.3%
30 of 700 matches0 incomplete outcomes excluded. This measures the price at 30 minutes, not the highest or lowest price reached on the way.
Detailed distribution: 28 return ranges
30-minute return distribution · 700 present · 0 absent. Each column counts outcomes in the labelled return range. The ranges have different widths; compare counts, not the shape as a probability density.
Author's noteOpinion, not machine output
"Full-record refresh of q#34fc2ca4, which scanned 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-26. That pinned report is unchanged."
Results since publicationHave new matches appeared, and what happened after them?
| Outcome | Original study, 2025-07-15 to 2026-09-04 | Since publication, from 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|---|
| Traded 5% or more above the match within 1h | 33 of 699 (4.7%) · 1 absent, not counted | loading |
| Closed 2% or more higher at 24h | 153 of 687 (22.3%) · 13 absent, not counted | loading |
| Closed 2% or more lower at 24h | 165 of 687 (24.0%) · 13 absent, not counted | loading |
Both periods are counted the same way. The later period is the same search on data recorded after publication, not a preregistered test. A missing outcome is never counted as zero.
Matches by marketMost matches: ETHUSDT 289 · BTCUSDT 282 · SOLUSDT 34844 markets itemized
Find where this setup appeared. These are occurrence counts, not performance rankings. Outcomes for individual markets are not included in this saved report.
Showing 25 of 844 itemized markets
- ETHUSDT289578,7625.0
- BTCUSDT282578,7624.9
- SOLUSDT34578,7620.6
- BTCUSDC12439,0810.3
- ETHUSDC11439,0810.3
- DOGEUSDT7578,7620.1
- XRPUSDT7578,7620.1
- SNDKUSDT5165,0010.3
- SPCXUSDT5110,8210.5
- BNBUSDT4578,7620.1
- XAGUSDT4294,6010.1
- HYPEUSDT3578,7620.1
- SUIUSDT3548,5220.1
- XAUUSDT3333,4810.1
- ZECUSDT3578,7620.1
- AAVEUSDT2548,5220.0
- ADAUSDT2578,7620.0
- ENAUSDT2548,5220.0
- 1000PEPEUSDT1578,7620.0
- 1000SHIBUSDT1548,5220.0
- APTUSDT1548,5220.0
- ASTERUSDT1452,7620.0
- AVAXUSDT1548,5220.0
- BCHUSDT1548,5220.0
- BNBUSDC1439,0810.0
Examples and replaysFirst 50 of 700 matches
Examples, never the denominator; the counts above cover every match. Replay opens 30 minutes before the moment and depends on coverage and access.
Sort the 50 examples shown here. This does not sort all study matches.
Replay
BTCUSDT2026-08-20 23:27−0.18%··replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5199268.913790002 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDT2026-08-20 17:08−0.03%+0.29%no low recordedreplay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5164785.773639998 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-08-20 16:42−0.08%+0.91%no low recordedreplay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 8280171.998540005 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDC2026-08-20 15:33−100.00%+0.00%no low recordedreplay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 8806124.482299995 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDT2026-08-20 15:31−0.20%+0.51%no low recordedreplay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5226327.400749996 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-08-20 15:30+0.52%+1.09%no low recordedreplay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 6357050.75514 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-08-20 13:37−100.00%+1.37%no low recordedreplay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 9502758.360439997 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-08-20 11:52−1.51%+0.01%no low recordedreplay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5071479.48535 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDT2026-08-20 10:16−0.69%+0.22%no low recordedreplay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 6017591.2296600025 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-08-20 08:54+0.52%+0.82%no low recordedreplay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5270782.715069999 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDC2026-08-20 08:18+0.19%+0.55%no low recordedreplay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5280449.734400002 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDT2026-08-20 08:08+1.31%+2.06%no low recordedreplay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 22401739.667430002 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-08-20 03:11+0.86%+1.41%no low recordedreplay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5367665.27384 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-08-19 22:31−0.50%+0.35%−0.86%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5883724.78 | setup_point_in_time |
XAUUSDT2026-08-19 21:08−0.04%+0.01%−0.17%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 8780610.690000003 | setup_point_in_time |
ZECUSDT2026-08-19 21:08−2.28%+0.14%−2.94%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 6212873.030000001 | setup_point_in_time |
SOLUSDT2026-08-19 20:52+3.39%+4.21%−0.24%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 12219406.619999997 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDT2026-08-19 20:51+0.49%+1.33%−0.27%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 19313514.950000025 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-08-19 20:26+3.76%+10.07%−0.15%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 6273141.990000003 | setup_point_in_time |
HYPEUSDT2026-08-19 19:20−1.19%+2.15%−3.39%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5497731.869999998 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-08-19 19:14−0.05%+0.97%−0.55%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 6675046.790000002 | setup_point_in_time |
XAUUSDT2026-08-19 15:28+0.18%+0.35%−0.08%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5494009.160000001 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-08-19 14:55+3.49%+8.83%−0.02%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 6359449.329999998 | setup_point_in_time |
SOLUSDT2026-08-19 14:55+0.91%+3.36%−0.02%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 6109897.690000002 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDT2026-08-19 13:32−0.25%+0.42%−0.61%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 7270457.89 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDT2026-08-18 14:27−0.23%+0.30%−0.39%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5055926.459999999 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDT2026-08-17 18:24−0.22%+0.08%−0.40%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 6313497.39 | setup_point_in_time |
SNDKUSDT2026-08-17 02:23+0.17%+0.57%−1.40%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 6140180.6899999995 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDT2026-08-16 22:37+0.29%+0.36%−0.09%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5035364.989999999 | setup_point_in_time |
SNDKUSDT2026-08-14 08:06−1.10%+0.62%−1.56%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5988003.9399999995 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDT2026-08-13 16:42+0.41%+0.60%−0.10%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 7302320.799999998 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-08-13 16:42+0.64%+0.84%−0.07%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5788876.679999996 | setup_point_in_time |
SNDKUSDT2026-08-13 15:17+0.92%+4.93%−0.38%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 7565641.410000004 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-08-12 09:33+0.15%+0.33%−0.35%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5276420.069999999 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-08-11 15:42+0.40%+0.55%−0.20%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5572279.880000001 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDT2026-08-11 15:39+0.11%+0.21%−0.13%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5496181.039999999 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDT2026-08-10 16:55+0.14%+0.29%−0.02%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 6074031.980000004 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDT2026-08-10 15:38+0.05%+0.14%−0.50%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5119705.51 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-08-10 15:14+0.00%+0.10%−0.43%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 7910232.720000002 | setup_point_in_time |
TUTUSDT2026-08-09 07:11−44.18%+0.59%−69.68%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5016423.5900000045 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-08-07 12:12−0.32%+0.38%−0.75%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5672689.079999996 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDT2026-08-05 19:06+0.02%+0.07%−0.11%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 6514477.16 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-08-05 18:05−0.27%+0.39%−0.35%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5654255.480000001 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDT2026-08-03 13:53+0.14%+1.24%−0.06%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 9087905.159999995 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDT2026-08-03 08:23+0.13%+0.45%−0.15%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5043254.750000001 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-08-02 11:57+0.40%+0.55%−0.08%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 5007028.879999999 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDT2026-08-01 18:32+0.33%+0.47%−0.08%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 9567154.019999996 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-08-01 18:31−0.48%+0.00%−1.28%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 13082577.65 | setup_point_in_time |
ETHUSDT2026-07-31 14:07+0.76%+1.03%−0.18%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 10041851.989999996 | setup_point_in_time |
BTCUSDT2026-07-31 14:05−0.46%−0.00%−0.94%replay →
Why this matched: the recorded values at that minute
| Field | Op | Query | Observed | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| feature.liq_notional_usd_1h | between | {"gte":5000000} | 6498837.4 | setup_point_in_time |
Evidence and methodologySetup definition, sample counts, data quality and reproducibility
Check the definition, counts, source limits and reproducibility below.
Published 2026-09-05 by @admin · q#3e4d2924
The setup: $5M or more liquidated in the trailing hour.
Readings in this definition: Liquidations in the trailing hour. Each page states the exact rule, its limits and what it does not prove.
How the comparison works
Outcomes start when the full setup completes. Rates exclude incomplete outcomes at each horizon.
- 700
- matches
- 844
- markets
- 321,953,806
- eligible market-minutes scanned
- 2026-08-20
- last match, 14 silent days after it
Reference rates are what the record did anyway: all eligible minutes across the same 844 markets and the same window, with no condition and no matching, read by the same rule at every horizon.
Record defects in this result
Exact -100% low-water readings: 13 at 30m, 12 at 1h, 18 at 4h, 12 at 24h. Each is a zero low in the record inside that horizon, which the engine read as a price; they sit in the low-point counts above and are a record defect, not a fall. The example rows print them as no low recorded.
Technical audit: exact query, source counts and versions
Exact search
SCOPEtimes.anchor_time between 2025-07-15T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z
These confirmed values define the run. Chips link to reading definitions; author commentary is separate.
Pinned result
v2 · nrm.v1 · ft.v1 · rev 6e2bee53…a3be76fb · q#3e4d2924
This key identifies the saved answer. A run against newer data has a new revision and result.
Outcome diagnostics
Headline split (mfe_1h)
33 of 699 (4.7%) traded 5% or more above the match at some point within 1h (mfe_1h, a high-water mark and not a close). 666 of 699 did not. Measured forward from each match. 1 absent, excluded from the denominator.
Peak day and span
Busiest day 2025-10-10: 34 of 700 matches (4.9%). 417 UTC days scanned: 219 with matches, 198 with none.
Present and absent by metric
fwd_ret_30m: present 700 · absent 0
mfe_1h: present 699 · absent 1
mae_1h: present 699 · absent 1
Absent: no completed outcome (record edge or missing minutes), excluded from every rate.
Threshold counts (fwd_ret_30m), both signs
≥ +0.1302 OF 700
≥ +0.2257 OF 700
≥ +0.5143 OF 700
≥ +169 OF 700
≥ +230 OF 700
≥ +515 OF 700
≥ +1011 OF 700
≥ +157 OF 700
≥ +206 OF 700
≥ +303 OF 700
≥ +503 OF 700
≥ +1000 OF 700
≥ +2000 OF 700
≥ +4000 OF 700
≤ -0.1293 OF 700
≤ -0.2245 OF 700
≤ -0.5144 OF 700
≤ -165 OF 700
≤ -218 OF 700
≤ -57 OF 700
≤ -105 OF 700
≤ -154 OF 700
≤ -204 OF 700
≤ -304 OF 700
≤ -503 OF 700
≤ -1002 OF 700
Every row is an exact partial sum of the distribution buckets in the chart, so the table and the chart cannot disagree.
Methodology and versions
DEFINITION
1 clause · 1 scope
How this is counted
feature.liq_notional_usd_1h ≥ 5000000. the chips at the top of the page are this definition, verbatim.
EXECUTION
edge-triggered · 1m UTC grid
How this is counted
the predicate becomes true having been false; sequences chain greedy-earliest and anchor at completion; episode dedupe PT1H. deterministic at every worker count.
DENOMINATORS
321,953,806 of 505,590,604
How this is counted
eligible market-minutes scanned (one market for one minute) across 844 markets; 183,636,798 excluded where a measurement was not yet available - missing data shrinks the denominator, it never counts as zero; 53197 market-days excluded by the source ledger. counts are matches within the scanned window, never a base rate.
OUTCOMES
forward from anchor · in-scan
How this is counted
closed threshold list ±0.1/0.2/0.5/1/2/5/10/15/20/30/50/100/200/400 pct, 28 fixed buckets across 12 forward metrics, computed over all occurrences pre-paging. an outcome absent at the record edge (horizon incomplete) is counted, never truncated or implied zero. nothing on this page is filterable by outcome. nothing here is a guarantee or trading advice.
OBSERVATION SCOPE
setup as-of anchor
How this is counted
setup values are as-of the anchor bucket close (point-in-time freeze); window aggregates cover their stated pre-anchor duration; every value the predicate consulted is at or before the anchor.
PIN
pinned 2026-09-05 · 700
How this is counted
the pinned result (counts, page-1 rows, outcomes, outcomes summary) never mutates. later dataset revisions are new runs, never merged.
SORT
times.anchor_time asc
How this is counted
the only record sort in v2.0; page limit 50. the pinned rows are page 1 of 700 - charts and rates derive from the summary over all occurrences, never from the page.
VERSIONS
q#3e4d2924 · rev 6e2bee531043
How this is counted
schema research_query.v2 · normalization archive_normalization.v1 · features feature_defs.v1 · encoding record_result.v6. same key implies a byte-identical rerun.
DATASET REV · FULL
6e2bee531043791f0990ab61c8c7c22d18aaea20c1543c1798cd9019a3be76fb
Historical counts for choosing what to investigate next: not a forecast, trading advice or evidence of a profitable trade.