BTCUSDT · recorded history

Large USD OI change with liquidations on BTCUSDT

Absolute USD open-interest change over roughly five minutes has a rolling z-score/normal-CDF score of at least 0.90, alongside at least $1M reported liquidations in the trailing hour. Falling OI also qualifies; price affects USD OI. No signed contract-growth requirement.

Read it in context

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Its recorded moves
BTCUSDT market events and replays
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What happened in the next 24 hours?

Neither move happened, with or without it.

Other minutes are the same markets and dates without this condition. Each percentage is the share of measured minutes that reached that move from the starting price.

Price touched +5% or higher

When this held: 0.0% · 0 of 143 minutes
Other minutes: 0.0% · 0 of 37,838 minutes

Price touched −10% or lower

When this held: 0.0% · 0 of 143 minutes
Other minutes: 0.0% · 0 of 37,838 minutes

Price can touch both levels within the same 24 hours.

This counts how often price touched a level, not what trading it would have paid.

Sample and counting

Rates use the 143 of 146 matches with a full 24 hours after them. The 3 newer ones are left out, not counted as zero.

Every condition is measured over the same 24 hours, whatever the length of its own reading. Other windows and move sizes shows shorter and longer windows.

When it happened

About 4.7 a day, on 29 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Over the full record

Every recorded day on BTCUSDT, 2026-09-01 to 2026-10-01: reached +5% in 12 of 161 (7.5%); fell to −10% in 0 of 161 (0.0%), within 24 hours.

Other windows and move sizes

Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move	1 hour	4 hours	24 hours	72 hours	7 days
Measured	145	145	143	132	112
Too recent	1	1	3	14	34
+0.1% or more	108 (74.5%)	124 (85.5%)	136 (95.1%)	127 (96.2%)	110 (98.2%)
+0.2% or more	72 (49.7%)	99 (68.3%)	122 (85.3%)	116 (87.9%)	104 (92.9%)
+0.5% or more	26 (17.9%)	57 (39.3%)	90 (62.9%)	99 (75.0%)	92 (82.1%)
+1% or more	4 (2.8%)	21 (14.5%)	56 (39.2%)	76 (57.6%)	75 (67.0%)
+2% or more	0 (0.0%)	3 (2.1%)	16 (11.2%)	32 (24.2%)	48 (42.9%)
+5% or more	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	2 (1.8%)
+10% or more	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)
−0.1% or lower	114 (78.6%)	127 (87.6%)	141 (98.6%)	131 (99.2%)	112 (100.0%)
−0.2% or lower	91 (62.8%)	116 (80.0%)	134 (93.7%)	129 (97.7%)	112 (100.0%)
−0.5% or lower	39 (26.9%)	80 (55.2%)	121 (84.6%)	124 (93.9%)	112 (100.0%)
−1% or lower	8 (5.5%)	36 (24.8%)	93 (65.0%)	107 (81.1%)	107 (95.5%)
−2% or lower	1 (0.7%)	6 (4.1%)	49 (34.3%)	84 (63.6%)	99 (88.4%)
−5% or lower	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	2 (1.4%)	23 (17.4%)	34 (30.4%)
−10% or lower	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Full record: other windows and move sizes

Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move	1 hour	4 hours	24 hours	72 hours	7 days
Measured	166	166	161	146	142
Too recent	0	0	5	20	24
+0.1% or more	123 (74.1%)	143 (86.1%)	148 (91.9%)	138 (94.5%)	138 (97.2%)
+0.2% or more	93 (56.0%)	125 (75.3%)	142 (88.2%)	135 (92.5%)	137 (96.5%)
+0.5% or more	35 (21.1%)	74 (44.6%)	121 (75.2%)	127 (87.0%)	129 (90.8%)
+1% or more	12 (7.2%)	35 (21.1%)	89 (55.3%)	111 (76.0%)	119 (83.8%)
+2% or more	3 (1.8%)	6 (3.6%)	48 (29.8%)	81 (55.5%)	96 (67.6%)
+5% or more	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	12 (7.5%)	48 (32.9%)	71 (50.0%)
+10% or more	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	25 (17.6%)
+15% or more	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	7 (4.9%)
−0.1% or lower	125 (75.3%)	141 (84.9%)	151 (93.8%)	141 (96.6%)	138 (97.2%)
−0.2% or lower	105 (63.3%)	127 (76.5%)	145 (90.1%)	139 (95.2%)	136 (95.8%)
−0.5% or lower	45 (27.1%)	78 (47.0%)	126 (78.3%)	130 (89.0%)	128 (90.1%)
−1% or lower	14 (8.4%)	39 (23.5%)	92 (57.1%)	114 (78.1%)	115 (81.0%)
−2% or lower	0 (0.0%)	5 (3.0%)	43 (26.7%)	86 (58.9%)	97 (68.3%)
−5% or lower	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	3 (1.9%)	4 (2.7%)	21 (14.8%)
−10% or lower	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)	0 (0.0%)

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Distributions and daily counts

Upside reached · 24hThe most price moved up within 24 hours of each match: a high-water mark, never a close. 143 with a complete 24 hours.

Drawdown · 24hThe worst price moved against within 24 hours of each match: the deepest point, never the close. 143 with a complete 24 hours.

Price 30 minutes laterForward 30-minute returns across 145 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like. 1 too recent.

How to read a distribution

Matches per UTC day

4 Oct4 matches
5 Oct6 matches
6 Oct5 matches
7 Oct7 matches
8 Oct8 matches
9 Oct4 matches
10 Oct1 match
11 Oct2 matches
12 Oct7 matches
13 Oct6 matches
14 Oct6 matches
15 Oct7 matches
16 Oct9 matches
17 Oct1 match
18 Oct7 matches
19 Oct6 matches
20 Oct2 matches
21 Oct5 matches
22 Oct7 matches
23 Oct5 matches
24 Oct5 matches
25 Oct3 matches
26 Oct6 matches
27 Oct4 matches
28 Oct6 matches
29 Oct4 matches
30 Oct10 matches
31 Oct1 match
1 Nov2 matches
2 Nov0 matches
3 Nov0 matches

How this is counted

Each rate counts only matches with the full window after them.
A minute where a reading was missing is left out and reported, not read as zero.
The condition picks the setup, never the outcome: a definition that filters on what followed is rejected (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE). Every match is measured, winners and losers alike.
"Other minutes" is every other eligible minute in the same market and window. It is a reference, not a control group.
"Reached +5%" uses the highest price inside the window (maximum favourable excursion, MFE); "fell to −10%" uses the lowest (maximum adverse excursion, MAE). Neither is the close.
Checked 40,322 eligible market-minutes (eligible_symbol_buckets) on BTCUSDT, 2026-10-04 00:00 to 2026-11-03 00:00 UTC.

What are MFE and MAE?

Reproducibility key (q#fbc03f7e)

The key that re-runs this exact count. Same key, same bytes; when the record grows, the dataset revision changes.

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: de0f2ef50baf530a363ce0c08cc21c068b14c0b5cf13829e8ff800ee4b3f829f
query hash: fbc03f7e1cd4593d987fbc48af6a002e8a6fb958ef47b45d92953e5e2cb7be28
scanned window: 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Re-run over the API

The exact search definition behind this count. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes; a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.oi_velocity_pctrank",
        "gte",
        0.9
      ],
      [
        "feature.liq_notional_usd_1h",
        "gte",
        1000000
      ],
      [
        "identity.symbol",
        "eq",
        "btcusdt"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.oi_velocity_pctrank","gte",0.9],["feature.liq_notional_usd_1h","gte",1000000],["identity.symbol","eq","btcusdt"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

Large USD OI change with liquidations on BTCUSDT

Read it in context

Read BTCUSDT itself

Its recorded moves

Test it on BTCUSDT, then plan it

What happened in the next 24 hours?

Price touched +5% or higher

Price touched −10% or lower

Over the full record