< OI accelerating into liquidationsETHUSDT · historical base rate

OI accelerating into liquidations on ETHUSDT

Open-interest velocity above its own 90th percentile while at least $1M of liquidation notional printed in the trailing hour.

What has happened on ETHUSDT when it held

Historically, when OI accelerating into liquidations on ETHUSDT held (165 occurrences in the scanned window, 158 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 18 of 158 (11.4) and drew down 10%+ in 0 of 158 (0.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED - ALL 165 MATCHES, FROM THE PER-SCAN SUMMARY

0 OF 165 (0.0%) REACHED ≥ +5% WITHIN 1H

METRIC MFE_1H · CHIPS RE-READ THE SUMMARY, NEVER RE-QUERY

🔒 COMPUTED FORWARD, NEVER A FILTER · DENOMINATOR 165 = MATCHES WITH A COMPLETE 1H HORIZON

OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 165 - ALL 165, NOT THE PAGE

About 5.3 a day, on 28 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 164 PRESENT · 1 ABSENT

Forward 30-minute returns across 164 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like.

Versus baseline

Historically, when any eligible ETHUSDT minute in the window (baseline) held (40,227 occurrences in the scanned window, 38,809 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 3,370 of 38,809 (8.7) and drew down 10%+ in 0 of 38,809 (0.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

The full record

The same setup counted over every recorded day on ETHUSDT (2026-05-15 to 2026-07-31), growing daily.

Historically, when OI accelerating into liquidations on ETHUSDT over the full record held (428 occurrences in the scanned window, 421 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 39 of 421 (9.3) and drew down 10%+ in 9 of 421 (2.1). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

WHAT FOLLOWED - ALL 428 MATCHES, FROM THE PER-SCAN SUMMARY

1 OF 428 (0.2%) REACHED ≥ +5% WITHIN 1H

METRIC MFE_1H · CHIPS RE-READ THE SUMMARY, NEVER RE-QUERY

🔒 COMPUTED FORWARD, NEVER A FILTER · DENOMINATOR 428 = MATCHES WITH A COMPLETE 1H HORIZON

OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 428 - ALL 428, NOT THE PAGE

About 5.5 a day, on 74 of 78 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 427 PRESENT · 1 ABSENT

Forward 30-minute returns across 427 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like.

Reproducibility key (q#a1c61648)

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: 52a43a418a97fbe3a324f7c372fa4d53967163acaa0ed33c56b78ddd897331a4
query hash: a1c61648ad4a9da77fa1950907062cf17771e68408d0996be24e6763f6e7744c
scanned window: 2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this over the API or MCP

This is the exact research_query.v2 definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and diff the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.oi_velocity_pctrank",
        "gte",
        0.9
      ],
      [
        "feature.liq_notional_usd_1h",
        "gte",
        1000000
      ],
      [
        "identity.symbol",
        "eq",
        "ethusdt"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.oi_velocity_pctrank","gte",0.9],["feature.liq_notional_usd_1h","gte",1000000],["identity.symbol","eq","ethusdt"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

How to read this

Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.

Everything measured on ETHUSDT right now: the ETHUSDT research page