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< Large USD OI change with liquidations
ETHUSDT · recorded history

Large USD OI change with liquidations on ETHUSDT

Absolute USD open-interest change over roughly five minutes has a rolling z-score/normal-CDF score of at least 0.90, alongside at least $1M reported liquidations in the trailing hour. Falling OI also qualifies; price affects USD OI. No signed contract-growth requirement.

Read it in context

  1. Read ETHUSDT itself

    Inspect ETHUSDT now or at a past minute

  2. Its recorded moves

    ETHUSDT market events and replays

  3. Test it on ETHUSDT, then plan it

    A tested result leads to Plan a trade, which measures what trading it would have paid after costs.

    Edit this test in Workbench

What happened in the next 24 hours?

Reaching +5% was about as common as without it; falling to −10% never happened, with or without it.

Other minutes are the same markets and dates without this condition. Each percentage is the share of measured minutes that reached that move from the starting price.

Price touched +5% or higher

When this held
1.7% · 2 of 118 minutes
Other minutes
0.5% · 199 of 37,957 minutes

Price touched −10% or lower

When this held
0.0% · 0 of 118 minutes
Other minutes
0.0% · 0 of 37,957 minutes

Price can touch both levels within the same 24 hours.

This counts how often price touched a level, not what trading it would have paid.

Sample and counting

Rates use the 118 of 121 matches with a full 24 hours after them. The 3 newer ones are left out, not counted as zero.

Every condition is measured over the same 24 hours, whatever the length of its own reading. Other windows and move sizes shows shorter and longer windows.

When it happened
Matches per UTC day, 2026-10-04 to 2026-11-03

About 3.9 a day, on 28 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Over the full record

Every recorded day on ETHUSDT, 2026-09-01 to 2026-10-01: reached +5% in 27 of 159 (17.0%); fell to −10% in 0 of 159 (0.0%), within 24 hours.

Other windows and move sizes
Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move1 hour4 hours24 hours72 hours7 days
Measured12012011811397
Too recent113824
+0.1% or more94 (78.3%)104 (86.7%)112 (94.9%)108 (95.6%)93 (95.9%)
+0.2% or more69 (57.5%)88 (73.3%)101 (85.6%)97 (85.8%)88 (90.7%)
+0.5% or more36 (30.0%)63 (52.5%)85 (72.0%)87 (77.0%)78 (80.4%)
+1% or more6 (5.0%)29 (24.2%)58 (49.2%)68 (60.2%)67 (69.1%)
+2% or more1 (0.8%)6 (5.0%)21 (17.8%)43 (38.1%)42 (43.3%)
+5% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)2 (1.7%)6 (5.3%)8 (8.2%)
+10% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)
−0.1% or lower108 (90.0%)113 (94.2%)116 (98.3%)113 (100.0%)97 (100.0%)
−0.2% or lower90 (75.0%)101 (84.2%)113 (95.8%)113 (100.0%)97 (100.0%)
−0.5% or lower51 (42.5%)78 (65.0%)106 (89.8%)111 (98.2%)97 (100.0%)
−1% or lower18 (15.0%)45 (37.5%)93 (78.8%)106 (93.8%)96 (99.0%)
−2% or lower5 (4.2%)16 (13.3%)68 (57.6%)95 (84.1%)94 (96.9%)
−5% or lower0 (0.0%)1 (0.8%)23 (19.5%)63 (55.8%)80 (82.5%)
−10% or lower0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)3 (2.7%)11 (11.3%)

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Full record: other windows and move sizes
Matches that reached each move within each window. Counts first; the measured row is what each rate is over.
Move1 hour4 hours24 hours72 hours7 days
Measured163163159146140
Too recent0041723
+0.1% or more141 (86.5%)151 (92.6%)156 (98.1%)145 (99.3%)140 (100.0%)
+0.2% or more120 (73.6%)139 (85.3%)152 (95.6%)143 (97.9%)139 (99.3%)
+0.5% or more64 (39.3%)93 (57.1%)133 (83.6%)138 (94.5%)137 (97.9%)
+1% or more17 (10.4%)51 (31.3%)108 (67.9%)130 (89.0%)131 (93.6%)
+2% or more4 (2.5%)15 (9.2%)71 (44.7%)108 (74.0%)123 (87.9%)
+5% or more1 (0.6%)2 (1.2%)27 (17.0%)73 (50.0%)106 (75.7%)
+10% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)4 (2.7%)25 (17.9%)
+15% or more0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)9 (6.4%)
−0.1% or lower139 (85.3%)148 (90.8%)157 (98.7%)146 (100.0%)140 (100.0%)
−0.2% or lower112 (68.7%)136 (83.4%)154 (96.9%)145 (99.3%)139 (99.3%)
−0.5% or lower54 (33.1%)97 (59.5%)130 (81.8%)133 (91.1%)131 (93.6%)
−1% or lower22 (13.5%)56 (34.4%)103 (64.8%)119 (81.5%)118 (84.3%)
−2% or lower2 (1.2%)11 (6.7%)54 (34.0%)91 (62.3%)101 (72.1%)
−5% or lower0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)6 (3.8%)16 (11.0%)25 (17.9%)
−10% or lower0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)

Each window counts only matches old enough for it, so a longer window can show fewer.

Distributions and daily counts
Upside reached · 24hUpside reached (MFE, 24h)The most price moved up within 24 hours of each match: a high-water mark, never a close. 118 with a complete 24 hours.
Drawdown · 24hDrawdown (MAE, 24h)The worst price moved against within 24 hours of each match: the deepest point, never the close. 118 with a complete 24 hours.
Price 30 minutes laterForward 30-minute returnForward 30-minute returns across 119 matches: 55% of them finished down. 2 too recent.

How to read a distribution

Matches per UTC day

  • 4 Oct4 matches
  • 5 Oct4 matches
  • 6 Oct2 matches
  • 7 Oct4 matches
  • 8 Oct7 matches
  • 9 Oct2 matches
  • 10 Oct1 match
  • 11 Oct3 matches
  • 12 Oct8 matches
  • 13 Oct6 matches
  • 14 Oct7 matches
  • 15 Oct7 matches
  • 16 Oct6 matches
  • 17 Oct1 match
  • 18 Oct3 matches
  • 19 Oct6 matches
  • 20 Oct1 match
  • 21 Oct5 matches
  • 22 Oct7 matches
  • 23 Oct3 matches
  • 24 Oct5 matches
  • 25 Oct5 matches
  • 26 Oct3 matches
  • 27 Oct2 matches
  • 28 Oct3 matches
  • 29 Oct8 matches
  • 30 Oct5 matches
  • 31 Oct0 matches
  • 1 Nov3 matches
  • 2 Nov0 matches
  • 3 Nov0 matches
How this is counted
  • Each rate counts only matches with the full window after them.
  • A minute where a reading was missing is left out and reported, not read as zero.
  • The condition picks the setup, never the outcome: a definition that filters on what followed is rejected (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE). Every match is measured, winners and losers alike.
  • "Other minutes" is every other eligible minute in the same market and window. It is a reference, not a control group.
  • "Reached +5%" uses the highest price inside the window (maximum favourable excursion, MFE); "fell to −10%" uses the lowest (maximum adverse excursion, MAE). Neither is the close.
  • Checked 40,296 eligible market-minutes (eligible_symbol_buckets) on ETHUSDT, 2026-10-04 00:00 to 2026-11-03 00:00 UTC.

What are MFE and MAE?

Reproducibility key (q#48ff2482)

The key that re-runs this exact count. Same key, same bytes; when the record grows, the dataset revision changes.

grammar
research_query.v2
normalization
archive_normalization.v1
feature library
feature_defs.v1
dataset revision
de0f2ef50baf530a363ce0c08cc21c068b14c0b5cf13829e8ff800ee4b3f829f
query hash
48ff24824414f85f6b26b6a3df40d831f458888bc9ba97ff3e85240bbb93496d
scanned window
2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Re-run over the API

The exact search definition behind this count. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes; a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.oi_velocity_pctrank",
        "gte",
        0.9
      ],
      [
        "feature.liq_notional_usd_1h",
        "gte",
        1000000
      ],
      [
        "identity.symbol",
        "eq",
        "ethusdt"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}
curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.oi_velocity_pctrank","gte",0.9],["feature.liq_notional_usd_1h","gte",1000000],["identity.symbol","eq","ethusdt"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

Past examples from the record, not a guarantee or a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.