TRXUSDT · historical base rate

One-sided tape: sellers on TRXUSDT

Taker buy ratio over the last 15 minutes has run at 0.38 or less: a persistently seller-heavy tape.

What has happened on TRXUSDT when it held

Historically, when One-sided tape: sellers on TRXUSDT held (458 occurrences in the scanned window, 443 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 0 of 443 (0.0) and drew down 10%+ in 0 of 443 (0.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED · ALL 458 MATCHES

225 of 457 (49.2%) reached +0% or more within 1 hour · smallest move size with matches, picked for you

Pick a window and a move size: how often did a move at least that big follow?

WINDOWMOVE SIZE

🔒 Measured after every match, never by keeping winners. 457 of the matches have a complete 1 hour forward; the other 1 are too recent to know.

What are MFE and MAE?

Why 72 hours can show fewer than 24 hours: a match too recent for a complete 72 hours is left out of that count entirely, even if it already reached the level within 24 hours. The two counts cover different sets of matches.

When they happened - one bar per UTC day, all 458 matches

About 15 a day, on 30 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Where the next 30 minutes landed - 458 measured, 0 too recent

Forward 30-minute returns across 458 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like.

How to read a distribution

Upside reached · 24hThe most price moved up within 24h of each occurrence: a high-water mark, never a close. 443 with a complete 24h.

Drawdown · 24hThe worst price moved against within 24h of each occurrence: the deepest point, never the close. 443 with a complete 24h.

Versus baseline

Historically, when any eligible TRXUSDT minute in the window (baseline) held (33,369 occurrences in the scanned window, 32,267 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 0 of 32,267 (0.0) and drew down 10%+ in 0 of 32,267 (0.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

The full record

The same setup counted over every recorded day on TRXUSDT (2026-08-19 to 2026-09-18), growing daily.

Historically, when One-sided tape: sellers on TRXUSDT over the full record held (458 occurrences in the scanned window, 443 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 0 of 443 (0.0) and drew down 10%+ in 0 of 443 (0.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

WHAT FOLLOWED · ALL 458 MATCHES

225 of 457 (49.2%) reached +0% or more within 1 hour · smallest move size with matches, picked for you

Pick a window and a move size: how often did a move at least that big follow?

WINDOWMOVE SIZE

🔒 Measured after every match, never by keeping winners. 457 of the matches have a complete 1 hour forward; the other 1 are too recent to know.

What are MFE and MAE?

When they happened - one bar per UTC day, all 458 matches

About 15 a day, on 30 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

Where the next 30 minutes landed - 458 measured, 0 too recent

Forward 30-minute returns across 458 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like.

How to read a distribution

Check our work: the key that re-runs this exact count (q#b89a37d3)

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: 8904ef0442c6f623ec772df2b59d7baf1e49aaa808b5b11ac31546605549e3bb
query hash: b89a37d3aeb4cfc93ca6c71833cbee8e2d51ec532c4dcd6606253b3fdac7e01d
scanned window: 2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this yourself, over the API or from an AI agent

This is the exact search definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and compare the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m",
        "lte",
        0.38
      ],
      [
        "identity.symbol",
        "eq",
        "trxusdt"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m","lte",0.38],["identity.symbol","eq","trxusdt"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z","2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

How to read this

Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.

Everything measured on TRXUSDT right now: the TRXUSDT research page