< One-sided tape: sellersARBUSDT · historical base rate

One-sided tape: sellers on ARBUSDT

Taker buy ratio over the last 15 minutes has run at 0.38 or less: a persistently seller-heavy tape.

What has happened on ARBUSDT when it held

Historically, when One-sided tape: sellers on ARBUSDT held (379 occurrences in the scanned window, 364 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 49 of 364 (13.5) and drew down 10%+ in 0 of 364 (0.0). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

Outcome distribution

WHAT FOLLOWED - ALL 379 MATCHES, FROM THE PER-SCAN SUMMARY

0 OF 378 (0.0%) REACHED ≥ +5% WITHIN 1H

METRIC MFE_1H · CHIPS RE-READ THE SUMMARY, NEVER RE-QUERY

🔒 COMPUTED FORWARD, NEVER A FILTER · DENOMINATOR 378 = MATCHES WITH A COMPLETE 1H HORIZON (1 ABSENT: TOO CLOSE TO THE RECORD EDGE FOR 1H - NEVER TRUNCATED, NEVER AN IMPLIED ZERO)

OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 379 - ALL 379, NOT THE PAGE

About 12 a day, on 29 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 379 PRESENT · 0 ABSENT

Forward 30-minute returns across 379 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like.

Versus baseline

Historically, when any eligible ARBUSDT minute in the window (baseline) held (36,493 occurrences in the scanned window, 35,240 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 5,750 of 35,240 (16.3) and drew down 10%+ in 48 of 35,240 (0.1). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

The full record

The same setup counted over every recorded day on ARBUSDT (2026-05-15 to 2026-07-31), growing daily.

Historically, when One-sided tape: sellers on ARBUSDT over the full record held (678 occurrences in the scanned window, 663 with a computable 24h horizon), the market reached +5% within 24h in 82 of 663 (12.4) and drew down 10%+ in 8 of 663 (1.2). Maximum favorable (MFE) and maximum adverse (MAE) excursions, both computed forward.

WHAT FOLLOWED - ALL 678 MATCHES, FROM THE PER-SCAN SUMMARY

1 OF 677 (0.1%) REACHED ≥ +5% WITHIN 1H

METRIC MFE_1H · CHIPS RE-READ THE SUMMARY, NEVER RE-QUERY

🔒 COMPUTED FORWARD, NEVER A FILTER · DENOMINATOR 677 = MATCHES WITH A COMPLETE 1H HORIZON (1 ABSENT: TOO CLOSE TO THE RECORD EDGE FOR 1H - NEVER TRUNCATED, NEVER AN IMPLIED ZERO)

OCCURRENCES PER DAY · UTC · SUM 678 - ALL 678, NOT THE PAGE

About 8.7 a day, on 55 of 78 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

FWD_RET_30M DISTRIBUTION · 678 PRESENT · 0 ABSENT

Forward 30-minute returns across 678 matches: close to an even split, which is what a coin flip looks like.

Reproducibility key (q#c87673c2)

grammar: research_query.v2
normalization: archive_normalization.v1
feature library: feature_defs.v1
dataset revision: 52a43a418a97fbe3a324f7c372fa4d53967163acaa0ed33c56b78ddd897331a4
query hash: c87673c2da4fc0c7c1c22f9473e01a5e2a142542e46595dd7fadd2a0815b1ede
scanned window: 2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z (UTC)

Same key, same bytes. This receipt reruns; it does not retell. When the record grows, the dataset revision changes and says so.

Re-run this over the API or MCP

This is the exact research_query.v2 definition behind the receipt. Send it to the key-authed research API (or the MCP research tool) and diff the bytes: a cached rerun is free.

{
  "schema_version": "research_query.v2",
  "normalization_version": "archive_normalization.v1",
  "feature_version": "feature_defs.v1",
  "target": "record_occurrences",
  "where": {
    "all": [
      [
        "feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m",
        "lte",
        0.38
      ],
      [
        "identity.symbol",
        "eq",
        "arbusdt"
      ],
      [
        "times.anchor_time",
        "between",
        [
          "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z",
          "2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"
        ]
      ]
    ]
  },
  "sort": [
    "times.anchor_time",
    "desc"
  ],
  "page": {
    "limit": 50,
    "cursor": null
  }
}

curl -s https://app.edgedepth.com/api/v1/research/query \
  -H 'authorization: Bearer $EDGEDEPTH_API_KEY' \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"schema_version":"research_query.v2","normalization_version":"archive_normalization.v1","feature_version":"feature_defs.v1","target":"record_occurrences","where":{"all":[["feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m","lte",0.38],["identity.symbol","eq","arbusdt"],["times.anchor_time","between",["2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z"]]]},"sort":["times.anchor_time","desc"],"page":{"limit":50,"cursor":null}}'

How to read this

Counts ship with denominators: occurrences across the eligible symbol-buckets scanned. A rate is over the occurrences with a computable horizon (present), never the total.
Absent is absent. When a feature was not warm at a minute, that bucket leaves the denominator and is reported; it is never coerced to zero.
This selects a setup, never its outcome. The grammar forbids filtering on what followed (OUTCOME_IN_PREDICATE), so the distribution below is over every occurrence, not a survivorship-picked subset.

Occurrences are observed examples in a selected archive, not a guarantee. Outcomes are computed forward from each anchor and are descriptive, never a filter and never a prediction. Nothing here is trading advice.

Everything measured on ARBUSDT right now: the ARBUSDT research page