MAGMAUSDT rose 162% into Aug 29. The record covers the whole lead-up.
Exact setup countedBook imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.54 and Engulfing · 1h bullish and Sweep + reclaim · 15m bearish · Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Minutes like this appeared only 16 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 9 of the 16 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (56%).
Opens this exact search in the research tool. Nothing runs until you confirm it there, and arming it as an alert sends a message when it next becomes true.
Both are true: these readings sat before this rise, and the other times they appeared, what followed more often fell. That disagreement is the finding: a lead-up that looks special is not the same as one that usually comes before rises.
Evidence and counting
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Of the 16 fires, 12 came before the move began and 3 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 0.5 a day, on 12 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
What the minutes before it looked like
Hourly candles. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the move began. Every one of them sits before the move, never inside it.
A reading stands out when it sits outside the range it usually holds. The rules are fixed: the same ones the moment reader on the research page uses.
No recorded readings at 1 minute, 1 hour, 24 hours before the move.
- -4h2026-08-26 00:00 UTC
At 4 hours before the move, 4 of the 39 readings stood out.
Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.041Cascade clustering ≥ 0.62Minutes to funding ≤ 1VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.038Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.0401 ≤ 0.041 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.622 ≥ 0.62 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03879 ≤ -0.038 - -15m2026-08-26 03:45 UTC
At 15 minutes before the move, 5 of the 39 readings stood out.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.54Engulfing · 1h bullishSweep + reclaim · 15m bearishUpper wick · 15m ≥ 0.63Cascade clustering ≥ 0.62Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.5445 ≥ 0.54 Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bullish bullish Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6341 ≥ 0.63 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6223 ≥ 0.62
Also counted
Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.041 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.62 and Minutes to funding ≤ 12 matches, 1 rose, 1 fell
Read at 4 hours before the move.
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 1 rose and 1 fell over the next 30 minutes (2 of the 2 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
Of the 2 fires, 1 came before the move began; none were during it.
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-26 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Every night the record counts what fired and what usually followed: the daily brief.
No account? Replay a real move tick by tick, free: TUT short squeeze · 9 Aug 2026.