ONGUSDT rose 146% into Aug 26. The record covers the whole lead-up.
Exact setup countedBook imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.56 and OI velocity percentile ≥ 0.97 and Return · 15m ≤ -0.015 · Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Minutes like this appeared 49 times in the 43,167 minutes searched (0.1%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 23 rose and 26 fell over the next 30 minutes (49 of the 49 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
Opens this exact search in the research tool. Nothing runs until you confirm it there, and arming it as an alert sends a message when it next becomes true.
Evidence and counting
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Of the 49 fires, 27 came before the move began and 6 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 1.6 a day, on 15 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
What the minutes before it looked like
Hourly candles. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the move began. Every one of them sits before the move, never inside it.
A reading stands out when it sits outside the range it usually holds. The rules are fixed: the same ones the moment reader on the research page uses.
No recorded readings at 1 minute, 4 hours, 24 hours before the move.
- -1h2026-08-25 20:00 UTC
At 1 hour before the move, 8 of the 39 readings stood out.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.66Engulfing · 15m bearishSweep + reclaim · 15m bullishOI velocity percentile ≥ 0.94Realized vol percentile ≤ 0.085Return · 15m ≤ -0.019Return · 1h ≤ -0.033VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.028Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6686 ≥ 0.66 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bullish bullish OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9477 ≥ 0.94 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.08456 ≤ 0.085 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01919 ≤ -0.019 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.03342 ≤ -0.033 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02813 ≤ -0.028 - -15m2026-08-25 20:45 UTC
At 15 minutes before the move, 5 of the 39 readings stood out.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.56OI velocity percentile ≥ 0.97Return · 15m ≤ -0.015Return · 1h ≤ -0.032VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.04Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.565 ≥ 0.56 OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9701 ≥ 0.97 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01551 ≤ -0.015 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.03246 ≤ -0.032 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.04087 ≤ -0.04
Also counted
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.66 and OI velocity percentile ≥ 0.94 and Realized vol percentile ≤ 0.0852 matches, 1 rose, 0 fell
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,167 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 1 of the 1 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (100%).
Of the 2 fires, 2 came before the move began; none were during it.
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-13 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Every night the record counts what fired and what usually followed: the daily brief.
No account? Replay a real move tick by tick, free: TUT short squeeze · 9 Aug 2026.