Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Touch odds scoreboard
Touch odds give the chance that price reaches a nearby band within 20 minutes. This page checks every forecast against what the price then did.
The scoreboard is not updating right now, so no numbers are shown.
It counts forecasts made from 12 Oct 2026, after the independent test window (28 Sep to 11 Oct 2026) closed.
What a touch means
- Prices near the market are cut into bands 0.25% wide. Each forecast covers the three bands above and the three below the band that holds the price.
- A touch uses Binance's 5-minute mark price, not the last trade. A band above is touched when a bar's high reaches its lower edge; a band below, when a bar's low reaches its upper edge. Reaching the edge exactly counts.
- The window is the 20 minutes after the forecast is made: the next four 5-minute bars.
- The bands on one side overlap as outcomes: price that touches the farthest band has passed through the nearer ones. Never add their odds together.
Earlier results
These are past research results, listed for comparison. They are not live claims and not part of this scoreboard.
- On 668,718 altcoin forecasts from 2026 (595 markets), calibration error was 0.6 points after a calibration fix. That fix was chosen after seeing earlier results on the same data, so this is development evidence, not an independent test.
- A registered one-shot test on BTC, ETH, SOL and DOGE, markets the model had never seen, passed on 29 Sep 2026: calibration error 1.6 points over 103,104 forecasts from January to June 2026.