Binance USDT-M1000RATSUSDT rose 179% on 31 July 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 13:00 hour at 0.02763 and reached a highest trade of 0.077 in the 02:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 12:45.
What stood out at 12:45
- Order book tilt-0.7986Tested: -0.79 or lower
- Containment (15m)insideTested: is inside
- Volatility rank0.9418Tested: 0.94 or higher
12:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 30 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 5 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 30 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed leaned down: 17 of the 30 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (57%).
About 1 a day, on 17 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 24 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 12 rose and 11 fell over the next 30 minutes (23 of the 24 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 0.8 a day, on 15 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 1 time in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 1 of the 1 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (100%).
About 0 a day over 31 days, but 2026-07-31 alone holds 100% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt -0.79 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.79 · feature.book_imbalance
- Containment (15m) is inside.Containment · 15m inside · feature.candle_containment_15m
- Volatility rank 0.94 or higher. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.94 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 12:45 UTC on 31 July, 15 minutes before the selected 13:00 start.
1000RATS only, 5 July to 3 August 2026 (UTC, ending 4 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every 1000RATS minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 13:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
1000RATSUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-04 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#36b1c640 @ dataset 461da594, counted 5 Aug 2026 02:50 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 30 matches, 29 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 30 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 30 Jul 13:00 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.9 or higherContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.021 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9005 ≥ 0.9 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5815 ≥ 0.58 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02155 ≤ -0.021 4 hours before · 31 Jul 09:00 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.92 or higherLower wick (15m) 0.63 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.57 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9217 ≥ 0.92 Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.6364 ≥ 0.63 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5794 ≥ 0.57 1 hour before · 31 Jul 12:00 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.95 or lowerOrder book lopsidedness 0.92 or higher15-minute range against usual 0.17 or lowerUpper wick (15m) 0.66 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.57 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9533 ≤ -0.95 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9297 ≥ 0.92 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.1682 ≤ 0.17 Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6667 ≥ 0.66 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5794 ≥ 0.57 15 minutes before · 31 Jul 12:45 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.79 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideLower wick (15m) 0.86 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.57 or higherVolatility rank 0.94 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.7986 ≤ -0.79 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.8636 ≥ 0.86 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5794 ≥ 0.57 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9418 ≥ 0.94 1 minute before · 31 Jul 12:59 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.065 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideLower wick (15m) 0.86 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.57 or higherVolatility rank 0.94 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.76 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.06432 ≤ 0.065 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.8636 ≥ 0.86 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5794 ≥ 0.57 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9447 ≥ 0.94 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.7628 ≥ 0.76
Two other reading times we tried 24 and 1 matches
1 minute before (12:59): order book lopsidedness 0.065 or lower, containment (15m) is inside, volatility rank 0.94 or higher.
Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.065 and Containment · 15m inside and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.94
24 matches.
Of the 24 matches, 24 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
1 hour before (12:00): order book tilt -0.95 or lower, order book lopsidedness 0.92 or higher, 15-minute range against usual 0.17 or lower.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.95 and Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.92 and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.17
1 match.
Of the 1 match, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 13:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on 1000RATS, 5 June to 4 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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