Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MACEUSDT rose 105% on 6 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 09:00 hour at 0.07322 and reached a highest trade of 0.15 in the 05:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 08:45.
What stood out at 08:45
- Order book tilt-0.761Tested: -0.76 or lower
- Containment (15m)outsideTested: is outside
- Engulfing (15m)bullishTested: is bullish
08:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 16 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 14 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 16 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 8 rose and 8 fell over the next 30 minutes (16 of the 16 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 0.5 a day, on 13 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 14 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 9 of the 14 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (64%).
About 0.5 a day, on 12 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 8 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 5 of the 8 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (63%).
About 0.3 a day, on 8 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt -0.76 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.76 · feature.book_imbalance
- Containment (15m) is outside.Containment · 15m outside · feature.candle_containment_15m
- Engulfing (15m) is bullish.Engulfing · 15m bullish · feature.candle_engulfing_15m
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 08:45 UTC on 6 August, 15 minutes before the selected 09:00 start.
ACE only, 14 July to 12 August 2026 (UTC, ending 13 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every ACE minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 09:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
ACEUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-13 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#bef309dc @ dataset 1a5d8642, counted 14 Aug 2026 02:54 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 16 matches, 13 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 3 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 16 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 5 Aug 09:00 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.9 or higherOrder book lopsidedness 0.076 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higher15-minute price change 0.014 or higher1-hour price change 0.022 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9029 ≥ 0.9 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.07524 ≤ 0.076 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5592 ≥ 0.55 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01447 ≥ 0.014 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02216 ≥ 0.022 4 hours before · 6 Aug 05:00 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.68 or lowerEngulfing (15m) is bearishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.34 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.6869 ≤ -0.68 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5521 ≥ 0.55 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.3351 ≤ 0.34 1 hour before · 6 Aug 08:00 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Sweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.54 or higherMinutes to funding 1 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5499 ≥ 0.54 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 15 minutes before · 6 Aug 08:45 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.76 or lowerContainment (15m) is outsideEngulfing (15m) is bullishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.54 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.02 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.761 ≤ -0.76 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bullish bullish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5499 ≥ 0.54 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02002 ≥ 0.02 1 minute before · 6 Aug 08:59 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.89 or lowerContainment (15m) is outsideEngulfing (15m) is bullishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.54 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.024 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8939 ≤ -0.89 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bullish bullish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5499 ≥ 0.54 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02446 ≥ 0.024
Two other reading times we tried 14 and 8 matches
1 minute before (08:59): order book tilt -0.89 or lower, containment (15m) is outside, engulfing (15m) is bullish.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.89 and Containment · 15m outside and Engulfing · 15m bullish
14 matches.
Of the 14 matches, 11 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 3 after it.
1 hour before (08:00): sweep + reclaim (1h) is bearish, liquidation bunching 0.54 or higher, minutes to funding 1 or lower.
Sweep + reclaim · 1h bearish and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.54 and Minutes to funding ≤ 1
8 matches.
Of the 8 matches, 7 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 09:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on ACE, 14 June to 13 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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