Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MAKEUSDT rose 123% on 11 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
What happened
Price opened the 05:00 hour at 0.01339 and reached a highest trade of 0.02989 in the 07:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 04:00.
What stood out at 04:00
- Order book tilt0.8118Tested: 0.81 or higher
- 1-hour range against usual4.474Tested: 4.4 or higher
- Volatility rank0.9996Tested: 0.99 or higher
04:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
19 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
No test to open
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_alpha, sector_crypto. Choose one explicitly.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 19 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt 0.81 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.81 · feature.book_imbalance
- 1-hour range against usual 4.4 or higher. The last finished 1-hour candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 1h ≥ 4.4 · feature.candle_compression_1h
- Volatility rank 0.99 or higher. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 04:00 UTC on 11 September, one hour before the selected 05:00 start.
AKE only, 19 August to 17 September 2026 (UTC, ending 18 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every AKE minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 05:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
AKEUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-18 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#540fd36a @ dataset 8904ef04, counted 18 Sep 2026 09:26 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 18 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 19 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 13 of the 19 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (68%).
13 rose and 6 fell over 19 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.6 a day, on 13 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 18 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,168 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 1 rose and 1 fell over the next 30 minutes (2 of the 2 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
1 rose and 1 fell over 2 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-26 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 6 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 4 of the 6 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (67%).
2 rose and 4 fell over 6 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.2 a day, on 4 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 19 matches came on 13 of 30 days, 4 during the rise.
When the matches happened13 of 30 days
- 22 Aug1 match
- 26 Aug3 matches
- 27 Aug1 match
- 29 Aug1 match
- 30 Aug1 match
- 2 Sep3 matches
- 5 Sep1 match
- 7 Sep2 matches
- 11 Sep2 matches
- 13 Sep1 match
- 14 Sep1 match
- 15 Sep1 match
- 16 Sep1 match
No matches on the other 17 days.
Of the 19 matches, 14 came before the rise began, 4 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 19 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 19 matches came on 13 of 30 days, 4 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any AKE minute.
- 30 minutes
4 of 19 were 2% or more lower; any AKE minute 3,801 of 43,171 (8.8%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 4 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
5 of 19 were 2% or more lower; any AKE minute 5,941 of 43,141 (13.8%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
At least 4 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
7 of 19 were 2% or more lower; any AKE minute 11,849 of 42,961 (27.6%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
At least 4 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
8 of 19 were 2% or more lower; any AKE minute 16,230 of 41,761 (38.9%).
Every match has a 24-hour close.
At least 4 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
4 of 17 were 2% or more lower; any AKE minute 11,393 of 38,881 (29.3%).
2 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
- 7 days
3 of 13 were 2% or more lower; any AKE minute 10,875 of 33,121 (32.8%).
6 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 3 of these windows overlap the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 19 matches came on 13 of 30 days, 4 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 10 Sep 05:00 UTC · 6 of 65 stood out
Order book tilt 0.82 or higherContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours1-hour price change 0.026 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.821 ≥ 0.82 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6026 ≥ 0.6 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 299 12 to 720 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02629 ≥ 0.026 4 hours before · 11 Sep 01:00 UTC · 7 of 65 stood out
Order book tilt 0.81 or higher15-minute range against usual 0.44 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.42 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8141 ≥ 0.81 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.438 ≤ 0.44 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 0.4171 ≤ 0.42 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5826 ≥ 0.58 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 319 12 to 720 1 hour before · 11 Sep 04:00 UTC · 9 of 65 stood out
Order book tilt 0.81 or higher1-hour range against usual 4.4 or higherContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change 0.011 or higher1-hour price change -0.047 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8118 ≥ 0.81 Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 4.474 ≥ 4.4 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5596 ≥ 0.55 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 322 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9996 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01147 ≥ 0.011 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.04794 ≤ -0.047 15 minutes before · 11 Sep 04:45 UTC · 8 of 65 stood out
Order book tilt 0.89 or higher15-minute range against usual 0.46 or lower1-hour range against usual 4.4 or higherContainment (15m) is insideUpper wick (15m) 0.76 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8985 ≥ 0.89 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.453 ≤ 0.46 Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 4.474 ≥ 4.4 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.7692 ≥ 0.76 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5591 ≥ 0.55 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 322.8 12 to 720 1 minute before · 11 Sep 04:59 UTC · 12 of 65 stood out
15-minute range against usual 0.46 or lower1-hour range against usual 4.4 or higherContainment (15m) is insideUpper wick (15m) 0.76 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.54 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursOpen interest change rank 0.99 or higherVolatility rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change -0.09 or lower1-hour price change -0.086 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.088 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.453 ≤ 0.46 Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 4.474 ≥ 4.4 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.7692 ≥ 0.76 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5495 ≥ 0.54 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 323 12 to 720 OI change magnitude score feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 1 ≥ 0.99 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9996 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.09092 ≤ -0.09 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.08628 ≤ -0.086 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.08818 ≤ -0.088
Two other reading times we tried 2 and 6 matches
1 minute before (04:59): 15-minute range against usual 0.46 or lower, open interest change rank 0.99 or higher, volatility rank 0.99 or higher.
Compression · 15m ≤ 0.46 and OI change magnitude score ≥ 0.99 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99
2 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 1 of 2, and 2% or more lower in 1 of 2.
Of the 2 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
15 minutes before (04:45): order book tilt 0.89 or higher, 15-minute range against usual 0.46 or lower, 1-hour range against usual 4.4 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.89 and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.46 and Compression · 1h ≥ 4.4
6 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 6, and 2% or more lower in 2 of 6.
Of the 6 matches, 5 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 19 matches came on 13 of 30 days, 4 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 05:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_alpha, sector_crypto. Choose one explicitly.
Each opens Review the test; nothing runs until you press Run.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-19 to 2026-09-18 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.