Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MAKEUSDT rose 552% on 18 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 11:00 hour at 0.02525 and reached a highest trade of 0.1647 in the 10:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 10:59.
What stood out at 10:59
- Order book tilt0.7646Tested: 0.76 or higher
- Book capturenativeTested: is native
- Volatility rank0.9778Tested: 0.97 or higher
10:59 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
More often than any AKE minute, in this sample
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
50 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other markets?
No result for these markets has been measured; nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 50 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt 0.76 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.76 · feature.book_imbalance
- Book capture is native.Book capture native · feature.book_source
- Volatility rank 0.97 or higher. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.97 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Read at 10:59 UTC on 18 September, one minute before the selected 11:00 start.
AKE only, 24 August to 22 September 2026 (UTC, ending 23 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every AKE minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 11:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
AKEUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-23 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#17c0c260 @ dataset cb0cece4, counted 23 Sep 2026 22:43 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 23 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 50 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.1%). What followed was more often higher: 30 of the 50 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (60%).
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 23 of 50 complete windows (46.0%), against 15.8% with no condition (6,831 of 43,171): 2.91x.
This reports the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute, chosen after counting. At least 4 of its 50 windows overlap the rise.
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 24 of 50 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 20 of 50.
About 1.6 a day, on 22 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 23 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 18 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 12 of the 18 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
12 rose and 6 fell over 18 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.6 a day, on 12 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared 124 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.3%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 59 rose and 65 fell over the next 30 minutes (124 of the 124 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
After 1 hour this setup fell 2% or more in 29 of 124 complete windows (23.4%), against 15.9% with no condition (6,859 of 43,141): 1.47x.
About 4 a day, on 29 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 50 matches came on 22 of 30 days, 4 during the rise.
When the matches happened22 of 30 days
- 25 Aug3 matches
- 26 Aug3 matches
- 27 Aug2 matches
- 29 Aug2 matches
- 30 Aug1 match
- 31 Aug2 matches
- 1 Sep1 match
- 2 Sep5 matches
- 3 Sep1 match
- 5 Sep3 matches
- 6 Sep1 match
- 7 Sep2 matches
- 8 Sep2 matches
- 11 Sep3 matches
- 13 Sep3 matches
- 14 Sep2 matches
- 15 Sep3 matches
- 16 Sep2 matches
- 17 Sep1 match
- 18 Sep4 matches
- 19 Sep1 match
- 20 Sep3 matches
No matches on the other 8 days.
Of the 50 matches, 43 came before the rise began, 4 during it and 3 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 50 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 50 matches came on 22 of 30 days, 4 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any AKE minute.
- 30 minutes
15 of 50 (30.0%) were 2% or more lower; any AKE minute 4,871 of 43,171 (11.3%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 4 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
17 of 50 (34.0%) were 2% or more lower; any AKE minute 6,859 of 43,141 (15.9%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
At least 4 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
21 of 50 (42.0%) were 2% or more lower; any AKE minute 12,427 of 42,961 (28.9%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
At least 4 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
20 of 50 (40.0%) were 2% or more lower; any AKE minute 16,047 of 41,761 (38.4%).
Every match has a 24-hour close.
At least 4 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
14 of 47 (29.8%) were 2% or more lower; any AKE minute 11,289 of 38,881 (29.0%).
3 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 3 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
7 of 39 (17.9%) were 2% or more lower; any AKE minute 5,635 of 33,121 (17.0%).
11 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 8 of these windows overlap the rise.
The saved summary picked, after counting, the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute: 30 minutes.
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 23 of 50 complete windows (46.0%), against 15.8% with no condition (6,831 of 43,171): 2.91x.
At least 4 of those windows ran through the rise itself, so it partly counts the rise as an outcome.
Along the way (the highest and lowest price inside 30 minutes, not the close):
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 24 of 50 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 20 of 50.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 50 matches came on 22 of 30 days, 4 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 17 Sep 11:00 UTC · 7 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt 0.86 or higherBook capture is native1-hour range against usual 0.32 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.66 or higherDepth capture is liveTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8653 ≥ 0.86 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.3121 ≤ 0.32 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6684 ≥ 0.66 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 74 12 to 720 4 hours before · 18 Sep 07:00 UTC · 11 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt -0.58 or lowerBook capture is native1-hour range against usual 3.9 or higher4-hour range against usual 0.35 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.65 or higherDepth capture is liveTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours1-hour price change 0.062 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.048 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5893 ≤ -0.58 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 3.989 ≥ 3.9 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3494 ≤ 0.35 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6551 ≥ 0.65 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 94 12 to 720 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.06253 ≥ 0.062 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.04877 ≥ 0.048 1 hour before · 18 Sep 10:00 UTC · 10 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt 0.66 or higherBook capture is nativeSweep + reclaim (15m) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.64 or higherDepth capture is liveTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change 0.011 or higher1-hour price change 0.025 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.082 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6692 ≥ 0.66 Book capture feature.book_source native native Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6433 ≥ 0.64 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 97 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01141 ≥ 0.011 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02518 ≥ 0.025 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.08277 ≥ 0.082 15 minutes before · 18 Sep 10:45 UTC · 9 of 88 stood out
Book capture is nativeLiquidation bunching 0.63 or higherDepth capture is liveTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.98 or higher15-minute price change -0.023 or lower1-hour price change 0.044 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.085 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book capture feature.book_source native native Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6353 ≥ 0.63 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 97.75 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9838 ≥ 0.98 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.02316 ≤ -0.023 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.0443 ≥ 0.044 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.08564 ≥ 0.085 1 minute before · 18 Sep 10:59 UTC · 8 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt 0.76 or higherBook capture is nativeLiquidation bunching 0.63 or higherDepth capture is liveTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.97 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.071 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.7646 ≥ 0.76 Book capture feature.book_source native native Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6353 ≥ 0.63 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 97.98 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9778 ≥ 0.97 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.07149 ≥ 0.071
Two other reading times we tried 18 and 124 matches
15 minutes before (10:45): book capture is native, liquidation bunching 0.63 or higher, volatility rank 0.98 or higher.
Book capture native and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.63 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.98
18 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 11 of 18, and 2% or more lower in 5 of 18.
Of the 18 matches, 16 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 1 after it.
1 hour before (10:00): order book tilt 0.66 or higher, book capture is native, sweep + reclaim (15m) is bearish.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.66 and Book capture native and Sweep + reclaim · 15m bearish
124 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 24 of 124 (19.4%), and 2% or more lower in 18 of 124 (14.5%).
Of the 124 matches, 100 came before the rise began, 12 during it and 12 after it.
Rows with fewer than 30 results print counts only.
The saved study leads with 10:59: the narrowest set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 50 matches came on 22 of 30 days, 4 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 11:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 539 eligible crypto markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
- 71 sector alpha markets
- 520 sector crypto markets
Each opens Review the test.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-24 to 2026-09-23 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.