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Binance USDT-MAKEUSDT rose 589% on 18 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market; all matches came within 30 days.
What happened
Price opened the 08:00 hour at 0.02392 and reached a highest trade of 0.1647 in the 10:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 07:59.
What stood out at 07:59
- Order book tilt0.5384Tested: 0.53 or higher
- Book capturenativeTested: is native
- 15-minute range against usual2.398Tested: 2.3 or higher
07:59 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
More often than any AKE minute, in this sample
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
135 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
No test to open
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_alpha, sector_crypto. Choose one explicitly.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 135 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt 0.53 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.53 · feature.book_imbalance
- Book capture is native.Book capture native · feature.book_source
- 15-minute range against usual 2.3 or higher. The last finished 15-minute candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 15m ≥ 2.3 · feature.candle_compression_15m
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Read at 07:59 UTC on 18 September, one minute before the selected 08:00 start.
AKE only, 23 August to 21 September 2026 (UTC, ending 22 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every AKE minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 08:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
AKEUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-22 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#daad1c41 @ dataset 85fdc316, counted 22 Sep 2026 08:33 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 22 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 135 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.3%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 71 rose and 64 fell over the next 30 minutes (135 of the 135 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
After 30 minutes this setup fell 2% or more in 27 of 135 complete windows (20.0%), against 10.8% with no condition (4,656 of 43,171): 1.85x.
This reports the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute, chosen after counting. At least 13 of its 135 windows overlap the rise.
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 34 of 135 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 24 of 135.
About 4.4 a day, on 30 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
These 30 days are in a row, so the matches are closer to one episode than a spread. It counts the single minute on 22 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 8 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 4 rose and 4 fell over the next 30 minutes (8 of the 8 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
4 rose and 4 fell over 8 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.3 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared 30 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed was more often higher: 21 of the 30 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (70%).
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 12 of 30 complete windows (40.0%), against 15.5% with no condition (6,684 of 43,171): 2.58x.
About 1 a day, on 17 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; all 135 matches came from 23 August to 21 September, 13 during the rise.
When the matches happened30 days in a row
- 23 Aug5 matches
- 24 Aug2 matches
- 25 Aug5 matches
- 26 Aug5 matches
- 27 Aug4 matches
- 28 Aug6 matches
- 29 Aug3 matches
- 30 Aug4 matches
- 31 Aug5 matches
- 1 Sep2 matches
- 2 Sep5 matches
- 3 Sep2 matches
- 4 Sep5 matches
- 5 Sep6 matches
- 6 Sep5 matches
- 7 Sep4 matches
- 8 Sep4 matches
- 9 Sep4 matches
- 10 Sep3 matches
- 11 Sep3 matches
- 12 Sep5 matches
- 13 Sep7 matches
- 14 Sep3 matches
- 15 Sep6 matches
- 16 Sep7 matches
- 17 Sep4 matches
- 18 Sep7 matches
- 19 Sep4 matches
- 20 Sep7 matches
- 21 Sep3 matches
Of the 135 matches, 117 came before the rise began, 13 during it and 5 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 135 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; all 135 matches came from 23 August to 21 September, 13 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any AKE minute.
- 30 minutes
27 of 135 (20.0%) were 2% or more lower; any AKE minute 4,656 of 43,171 (10.8%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 13 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
29 of 135 (21.5%) were 2% or more lower; any AKE minute 6,596 of 43,141 (15.3%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
At least 13 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
38 of 135 (28.1%) were 2% or more lower; any AKE minute 12,044 of 42,961 (28.0%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
At least 13 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
53 of 132 (40.2%) were 2% or more lower; any AKE minute 15,609 of 41,761 (37.4%).
3 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 13 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
35 of 121 (28.9%) were 2% or more lower; any AKE minute 10,728 of 38,881 (27.6%).
14 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 11 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
21 of 97 (21.6%) were 2% or more lower; any AKE minute 7,072 of 33,121 (21.4%).
38 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 15 of these windows overlap the rise.
The saved summary picked, after counting, the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute: 30 minutes.
After 30 minutes this setup fell 2% or more in 27 of 135 complete windows (20.0%), against 10.8% with no condition (4,656 of 43,171): 1.85x.
At least 13 of those windows ran through the rise itself, so it partly counts the rise as an outcome.
Along the way (the highest and lowest price inside 30 minutes, not the close):
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 34 of 135 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 24 of 135.
Picked after the rise, on one market; all 135 matches came from 23 August to 21 September, 13 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 17 Sep 08:00 UTC · 10 of 87 stood out
Order book tilt 0.77 or higherBook capture is native15-minute range against usual 0.47 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.66 or higherDepth capture is liveTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 1 or lower1-hour price change 0.045 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.07 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.7776 ≥ 0.77 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4623 ≤ 0.47 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6668 ≥ 0.66 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 71 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.04508 ≥ 0.045 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.07099 ≥ 0.07 4 hours before · 18 Sep 04:00 UTC · 10 of 87 stood out
Order book tilt -0.94 or lowerOrder book lopsidedness 0.04 or lowerBook capture is native4-hour range against usual 0.35 or lowerEngulfing (15m) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.66 or higherDepth capture is liveTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change 0.02 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9479 ≤ -0.94 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.0396 ≤ 0.04 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3494 ≤ 0.35 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6649 ≥ 0.66 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 91 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.0204 ≥ 0.02 1 hour before · 18 Sep 07:00 UTC · 11 of 87 stood out
Order book tilt -0.58 or lowerBook capture is native1-hour range against usual 3.9 or higher4-hour range against usual 0.35 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.65 or higherDepth capture is liveTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours1-hour price change 0.062 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.048 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5893 ≤ -0.58 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 3.989 ≥ 3.9 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3494 ≤ 0.35 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6551 ≥ 0.65 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 94 12 to 720 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.06253 ≥ 0.062 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.04877 ≥ 0.048 15 minutes before · 18 Sep 07:45 UTC · 13 of 87 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.021 or lowerBook capture is native15-minute range against usual 2.3 or higher1-hour range against usual 3.9 or higher4-hour range against usual 0.35 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.65 or higherDepth capture is liveTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 15 or lower15-minute price change 0.034 or higher1-hour price change 0.035 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.08 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.02072 ≤ 0.021 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.398 ≥ 2.3 Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 3.989 ≥ 3.9 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3494 ≤ 0.35 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6511 ≥ 0.65 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 94.75 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 15 ≤ 15 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.0348 ≥ 0.034 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.03516 ≥ 0.035 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.08045 ≥ 0.08 1 minute before · 18 Sep 07:59 UTC · 12 of 87 stood out
Order book tilt 0.53 or higherBook capture is native15-minute range against usual 2.3 or higher1-hour range against usual 3.9 or higher4-hour range against usual 0.35 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.65 or higherDepth capture is liveTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 1 or lower1-hour price change 0.037 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.076 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.5384 ≥ 0.53 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.398 ≥ 2.3 Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 3.989 ≥ 3.9 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3494 ≤ 0.35 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6505 ≥ 0.65 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 94.98 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 1 ≤ 1 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.03764 ≥ 0.037 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.07645 ≥ 0.076
Two other reading times we tried 8 and 30 matches
15 minutes before (07:45): order book lopsidedness 0.021 or lower, book capture is native, 15-minute range against usual 2.3 or higher.
Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.021 and Book capture native and Compression · 15m ≥ 2.3
8 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 3 of 8, and 2% or more lower in 3 of 8.
Of the 8 matches, 5 came before the rise began, 2 during it and 1 after it.
1 hour before (07:00): order book tilt -0.58 or lower, book capture is native, 1-hour range against usual 3.9 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.58 and Book capture native and Compression · 1h ≥ 3.9
30 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 12 of 30 (40.0%), and 2% or more lower in 6 of 30 (20.0%).
Of the 30 matches, 25 came before the rise began, 3 during it and 2 after it.
Rows with fewer than 30 results print counts only.
The saved study leads with 07:59 because it is the only set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; all 135 matches came from 23 August to 21 September, 13 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 08:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_alpha, sector_crypto. Choose one explicitly.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-23 to 2026-09-22 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.