Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MARKUSDT rose 86% on 24 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 02:00 hour at 0.1584 and reached a highest trade of 0.2944 in the 07:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 01:00.
What stood out at 01:00
- Order book tilt-0.598Tested: -0.59 or lower
- Open interest change rank0.9994Tested: 0.99 or higher
- Volatility rank0.9818Tested: 0.98 or higher
01:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
25 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other markets?
No result for these markets has been measured; nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 25 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt -0.59 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.59 · feature.book_imbalance
- Open interest change rank 0.99 or higher. How unusual the change in open positions was, opening or closing, on a 0 to 1 scale.OI change magnitude score ≥ 0.99 · feature.oi_velocity_pctrank
- Volatility rank 0.98 or higher. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.98 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 01:00 UTC on 24 September, one hour before the selected 02:00 start.
ARK only, 31 August to 29 September 2026 (UTC, ending 30 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every ARK minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 02:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
ARKUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#0573841e @ dataset a0160256, counted 30 Sep 2026 21:17 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 30 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 25 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 16 of the 25 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (64%).
16 rose and 9 fell over 25 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.8 a day, on 15 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 30 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 5 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 3 of the 5 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (60%).
3 rose and 2 fell over 5 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.2 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-13 alone holds 40% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 25 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 15 of the 25 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (60%).
15 rose and 10 fell over 25 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.8 a day, on 15 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 25 matches came on 15 of 30 days, 2 during the rise.
When the matches happened15 of 30 days
- 1 Sep2 matches
- 2 Sep2 matches
- 3 Sep2 matches
- 4 Sep1 match
- 7 Sep1 match
- 8 Sep1 match
- 9 Sep2 matches
- 10 Sep3 matches
- 13 Sep3 matches
- 15 Sep1 match
- 22 Sep1 match
- 23 Sep2 matches
- 24 Sep2 matches
- 25 Sep1 match
- 27 Sep1 match
No matches on the other 15 days.
Of the 25 matches, 22 came before the rise began, 2 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 25 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 25 matches came on 15 of 30 days, 2 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any ARK minute.
- 30 minutes
4 of 25 were 2% or more lower; any ARK minute 1,769 of 41,345 (4.3%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 2 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
6 of 25 were 2% or more lower; any ARK minute 2,976 of 41,321 (7.2%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
At least 2 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
5 of 24 were 2% or more lower; any ARK minute 6,123 of 41,150 (14.9%).
1 without a 4-hour close yet, left out.
At least 2 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
7 of 25 were 2% or more lower; any ARK minute 8,386 of 40,020 (21.0%).
Every match has a 24-hour close.
At least 2 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
4 of 24 were 2% or more lower; any ARK minute 6,760 of 37,256 (18.1%).
1 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
3 of 19 were 2% or more lower; any ARK minute 2,913 of 31,807 (9.2%).
6 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 25 matches came on 15 of 30 days, 2 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 23 Sep 02:00 UTC · 8 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt -0.57 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.56 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursOpen interest change rank 0.99 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.28 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5708 ≤ -0.57 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5608 ≥ 0.56 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 242 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 242 12 to 720 OI change magnitude score feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9983 ≥ 0.99 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.2781 ≤ 0.28 4 hours before · 23 Sep 22:00 UTC · 6 of 88 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.55 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursTaker buy share (15m) 0.24 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5548 ≥ 0.55 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 262 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 262 12 to 720 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.2373 ≤ 0.24 1 hour before · 24 Sep 01:00 UTC · 12 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt -0.59 or lower15-minute range against usual 3.1 or higherSweep + reclaim (15m) is bearishUpper wick (15m) 0.69 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursOpen interest change rank 0.99 or higherVolatility rank 0.98 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.68 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.598 ≤ -0.59 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 3.127 ≥ 3.1 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6977 ≥ 0.69 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5548 ≥ 0.55 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 265 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 265 12 to 720 OI change magnitude score feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9994 ≥ 0.99 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9818 ≥ 0.98 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.6899 ≥ 0.68 15 minutes before · 24 Sep 01:45 UTC · 8 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt -0.57 or lowerOrder book lopsidedness 0.082 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.96 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5702 ≤ -0.57 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.08102 ≤ 0.082 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5548 ≥ 0.55 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 265.8 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 265.8 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9648 ≥ 0.96 1 minute before · 24 Sep 01:59 UTC · 5 of 88 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.55 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5548 ≥ 0.55 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 266 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 266 12 to 720
Two other reading times we tried 5 and 25 matches
1 minute before (01:59): liquidation bunching 0.55 or higher, how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higher, how long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720.
Cascade clustering ≥ 0.55 and how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 and how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720
5 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 5, and 2% or more lower in 1 of 5.
Of the 5 matches, 5 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
15 minutes before (01:45): order book tilt -0.57 or lower, order book lopsidedness 0.082 or lower, volatility rank 0.96 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.57 and Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.082 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.96
25 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 2 of 25, and 2% or more lower in 2 of 25.
Of the 25 matches, 18 came before the rise began, 3 during it and 4 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 25 matches came on 15 of 30 days, 2 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 02:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 608 eligible crypto markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
- 518 sector crypto markets
- 49 layer 1 sector markets
Each opens Review the test.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-31 to 2026-09-30 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.