Binance USDT-MBMTUSDT rose 211% on 9 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 04:00 hour at 0.01401 and reached a highest trade of 0.04359 in the 04:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 03:00.
What stood out at 03:00
- 15-minute range against usual0.4898Tested: 0.49 or lower
- Containment (15m)insideTested: is inside
- Lower wick (15m)1Tested: 1 or higher
03:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 12 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 15 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 12 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 5 rose and 5 fell over the next 30 minutes (10 of the 12 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 0.4 a day, on 8 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 3 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 2 of the 3 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-09 alone holds 100% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 6 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 4 of the 6 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
About 0.2 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-09 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- 15-minute range against usual 0.49 or lower. The last finished 15-minute candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 15m ≤ 0.49 · feature.candle_compression_15m
- Containment (15m) is inside.Containment · 15m inside · feature.candle_containment_15m
- Lower wick (15m) 1 or higher.Lower wick · 15m ≥ 1 · feature.candle_lower_wick_15m
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 03:00 UTC on 9 August, one hour before the selected 04:00 start.
BMT only, 15 July to 13 August 2026 (UTC, ending 14 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every BMT minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 04:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
BMTUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-14 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#5f662c50 @ dataset de1f6756, counted 15 Aug 2026 02:45 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 12 matches, 12 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 12 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 8 Aug 04:00 UTC · 1 of 39 stood out
Taker buy share (15m) 0.83 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.8342 ≥ 0.83 4 hours before · 9 Aug 00:00 UTC · 2 of 39 stood out
Minutes to funding 1 or lowerTaker buy share (15m) 0.78 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.787 ≥ 0.78 1 hour before · 9 Aug 03:00 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
15-minute range against usual 0.49 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideLower wick (15m) 1 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4898 ≤ 0.49 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 1 ≥ 1 15 minutes before · 9 Aug 03:45 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Containment (15m) is insideVolatility rank 0.97 or higher1-hour price change 0.022 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9736 ≥ 0.97 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02217 ≥ 0.022 1 minute before · 9 Aug 03:59 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Containment (15m) is insideVolatility rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change 0.013 or higher1-hour price change 0.036 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.025 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9954 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01374 ≥ 0.013 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.03698 ≥ 0.036 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.0252 ≥ 0.025
Two other reading times we tried 3 and 6 matches
1 minute before (03:59): containment (15m) is inside, volatility rank 0.99 or higher, 15-minute price change 0.013 or higher.
Containment · 15m inside and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99 and Return · 15m ≥ 0.013
3 matches.
Of the 3 matches, 1 came before the rise began, 2 during it and 0 after it.
15 minutes before (03:45): containment (15m) is inside, volatility rank 0.97 or higher, 1-hour price change 0.022 or higher.
Containment · 15m inside and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.97 and Return · 1h ≥ 0.022
6 matches.
Of the 6 matches, 3 came before the rise began, 2 during it and 1 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 04:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on BMT, 15 June to 14 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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