Binance USDT-MBMTUSDT rose 222% on 9 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 03:00 hour at 0.01352 and reached a highest trade of 0.04359 in the 04:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 03:00.
What stood out at 03:00
- Sweep + reclaim (15m)bearishTested: is bearish
- Taker buy share (15m)0.2353Tested: 0.24 or lower
03:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted2 conditions · 33 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 14 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 33 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed leaned down: 19 of the 30 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (63%).
About 1.1 a day, on 20 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared 46 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.1%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 21 rose and 22 fell over the next 30 minutes (43 of the 46 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 1.5 a day, on 21 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Sweep + reclaim (15m) is bearish.Sweep + reclaim · 15m bearish · feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m
- Taker buy share (15m) 0.24 or lower.Taker buy share · 15m ≤ 0.24 · feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m
Read at 24 hours before the move.
Read at 03:00 UTC on 8 August, 24 hours before the selected 03:00 start.
BMT only, 14 July to 12 August 2026 (UTC, ending 13 August 00:00); all 2 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every BMT minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 03:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
BMTUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-13 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#b2c718ac @ dataset 1a5d8642, counted 14 Aug 2026 02:54 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 33 matches, 32 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 33 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 1 other time tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 8 Aug 03:00 UTC · 2 of 39 stood out
Sweep + reclaim (15m) is bearishTaker buy share (15m) 0.24 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.2353 ≤ 0.24 4 hours before · 8 Aug 23:00 UTC · 0 of 39 stood out
1 hour before · 9 Aug 02:00 UTC · 2 of 39 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.062 or lowerSweep + reclaim (15m) is bearishShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.06128 ≤ 0.062 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish 15 minutes before · 9 Aug 02:45 UTC · 0 of 39 stood out
1 minute before · 9 Aug 02:59 UTC · 0 of 39 stood out
One other reading time we tried 46 matches
1 hour before (02:00): order book lopsidedness 0.062 or lower, sweep + reclaim (15m) is bearish.
Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.062 and Sweep + reclaim · 15m bearish
46 matches.
Of the 46 matches, 37 came before the rise began, 4 during it and 5 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
The saved study leads with 03:00: the narrowest set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 03:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 2 conditions on BMT, 14 June to 13 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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